this post was submitted on 18 Apr 2026
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Sixteen bets made $100,000 accurately predicting the timing of the US airstrikes against Iran on 27 February. Later, a single user would make over $550,000 after betting that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would topple, just moments before his assassination by Israeli forces. On 7 April, right before Donald Trump announced a temporary ceasefire with Iran, traders bet $950m that oil prices would come down. They did.

These bets and other well-timed wagers accurately predicted the precise timing of major developments in the US-Israel war with Iran, creating huge windfalls and raising concerns among lawmakers and experts over potential insider trading.

Betting – once largely siloed to sporting events – has now spread to include contracts on news events where insider information could give some traders an advantage.

The proliferation of online betting markets like Polymarket and Kalshi has allowed bets on virtually any news event. It’s also easier than ever to buy commodity derivatives like oil futures, where traders gamble on what the price of oil will be in the future.

Leaders of some US federal agencies and some members of Congress said they want to crack down on suspicious trading taking place across different marketplaces, but it’s unclear how much leeway regulators will make.

“Is the problem that we don’t have legislation or that we don’t have enforcement capabilities?” said Joshua Mitts, a law professor at Columbia University. “To have a law that can’t really be enforced effectively given the technological limitations, it’s sort of putting the cart before the horse.”

top 44 comments
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[–] Evotech@lemmy.world 15 points 2 days ago (1 children)

This would not work if it wasn’t for the millions of absolutes dumbfuck people who gamble on outcomes they don’t have insider info on

[–] 73ms@sopuli.xyz 4 points 2 days ago

I don't think it's exactly that. With normal administrations you can usually believe then when they say they're in talks and close to reaching an agreement. Here it should be very clear by this point to even the most gullible that Trump is just lying about it constantly. Someone suggested it's algorithmic trading looking at news articles that still tend to present Trump's every proclamation as serious at play

[–] crystalmerchant@lemmy.world 7 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Corruption and grift is what's going on..duh

[–] Insayn@reddthat.com 18 points 2 days ago

Make all payouts over $1000 fully public record. Period. There should be ZERO anonymity for anyone who profits from this.

[–] Formfiller@lemmy.world 9 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Maybe we deserve to go extinct

[–] Wataba@sh.itjust.works 5 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

I think of Adama's question in the beginning of the 2003 BSG series.

"Why are we, as a people, worth saving?"

At this point, my only answer is that we aren't.

[–] ironhydroxide@sh.itjust.works 5 points 2 days ago

That's a really weird spelling for traitors.....

[–] sturmblast@lemmy.world 4 points 2 days ago

Massive corruption

[–] BarneyPiccolo@lemmy.today 4 points 2 days ago (1 children)

What's going on? Business as usual, that's what. Why do you think these guys worked so hard to steal the power? It's not complicated, looting America down to the floorboards has always been the entire plan.

[–] GirthBrooksPLO@lemmy.world 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

It's funny because they think they are just going to get to keep their ill gotten gains and nothing will happen after that.

[–] BarneyPiccolo@lemmy.today 1 points 1 day ago

Oh yeah, that is a core MAGA trait: they NEVER think about Step 2, or Consequences.

Like when he bombed Iran, and said it was over in the first hour. Then a few weeks later, he was on TV saying "Who knew that they'd shoot back?" Literally EVERYBODY knew! That's why all those weak, cowardly past presidents, not any other world power, did what Trump allowed Israel to do, and bully him into the stupidest war in American history, and that's saying something.

They think their overwhelming force, ferocious intimidation, and God's blessing, will force everyone to bow to their Divine Might, and they are constantly surprised when they get slapped across the face. As it turns out, they are arrogantly inept, and it's obvious to absolutely everybody. We're fighting against them as hard as possible (or some of us, not S & J), but it's pretty clear that they'll eventually collapse under the weight of their own virtuosic ignorance.

[–] cashsky@sh.itjust.works 13 points 2 days ago (1 children)

People betting on shit like this are dumber than doorknobs. Signing up to getting robbed voluntarily. Gambling in general is stupid but this is especially stupid.

[–] Furbag@lemmy.world 6 points 2 days ago (1 children)

It isn't gambling if you know what the outcome is going to be.

If the people betting on these polymarket shares were in a casino, they would have been escorted out long ago.

[–] cashsky@sh.itjust.works 3 points 2 days ago

I'm talking about regular people, not people with insider knowledge. Regular people betting on this shit are just voluntarily transferring their wealth to powerful people with insider knowledge and influence.

[–] TryingToBeGood@reddthat.com 23 points 3 days ago (1 children)

This entire administration needs to go to prison.

[–] DarrinBrunner@lemmy.world 1 points 2 days ago

... to be held before...

[–] patruelis@lemmy.world 11 points 2 days ago

Corruption at its best!

[–] Typhoon@lemmy.ca 87 points 4 days ago (2 children)

Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war.

It's spelled "traitors"

[–] jimmy90@lemmy.world 2 points 2 days ago

insider traitoring?

[–] Railcar8095@lemmy.world 17 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the ~~Iran~~ traitors war.

Happy now?

[–] otp@sh.itjust.works 8 points 3 days ago (2 children)

Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed ~~bets~~ traitors on the Iran war.

FTFY

[–] osanna@lemmy.vg 14 points 3 days ago (1 children)

traitors traitors traitors traitors traitors

Am I doing this right?

[–] Zink@programming.dev 4 points 3 days ago

traitors traitors buffalo buffalo buffalo traitors

[–] poolcritter@pawb.social 4 points 3 days ago

Traders placed over $1bn traitors' perfectly timed bets on the Iran war.

FTFY

[–] flandish@lemmy.world 7 points 2 days ago

capitalism. this is just the owning classes playing games.

[–] 0_o7@lemmy.dbzer0.com 21 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

USA is profiting off of fake wars for half a century is what's going on?

Trump is just making it blatantly obvious because nobody ever tried to hold them accountable before.

[–] Donkter@lemmy.world 48 points 4 days ago (2 children)

"WhAt Is GoInG oN???¿‽"

Followed by that article. Horrific journalism.

[–] Rai@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 2 days ago

Was that supposed to be read in Xandir’s voice? Cuz that definitely played in my head in Xandir’s voice hahaha

[–] Hypnotoad_@sh.itjust.works 27 points 4 days ago (1 children)

"is the constant and obvious corruption exactly as it seems? Read more to find out. Also Kraft Mac and cheese is $2.99 at Walmart this weekend!"

[–] Illegalmexicant@lemmy.world 3 points 4 days ago (2 children)

Say what? Is kraft past its date still good? At least milk and butter is still cheap....right?

[–] derek@infosec.pub 2 points 3 days ago

Food shortages got you feeling down? Looking for a reminder of good times? After the break we'll reveal the best thickening methods for coldbrew Mac. Adding body to the cheese-water really sells the experience!

[–] Zahille7@lemmy.world 1 points 3 days ago

I figure if it's a dry powder, it should be good.

[–] itisileclerk@lemmy.world 9 points 3 days ago

What do you mean "What is going on?". It's Capitalism at it's best, converting peoples missery into proffit. In USA they found the way to convert peoples stupidity into profit. When you calculate how many idiots are living in USA profits are huge. For that Donald Trump deserve Nobel Prize in Economics.

[–] ThunderQueen@lemmy.world 35 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago)

"we built a public gambling app that you can gamble on anything with that has little to no guardrails" "why are people using our gambling app for insider trading a war????"

[–] PM_ME_YOUR_BOOBIES@lemmy.world 28 points 3 days ago

Prediction markets are the insider trader's wet dream. Enjoy while it's unregulated and offshore!

[–] Bwaz@lemmy.world 27 points 3 days ago

Pretty easy to guess what's goimg on.

[–] GutterRat42@lemmy.world 30 points 4 days ago

And Kalshi and Polymarket don't care because they make money regardless. But this is a national security threat. Other countries just need to check the odds and who is betting and can get free and easy intelligence

[–] SarcasticMan@lemmy.world 25 points 3 days ago

Whats going on? It is called treason and Market manipulation.

[–] spacesatan@leminal.space 16 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

Kind of funny that it was comparatively peanuts on polymarket and then 1 billion on oil futures and everybody is talking about the prediction markets. Especially kalshi who are mostly just catching strays here. It's hard to even find anybody pointing at specific suspicious trades on kalshi when they do KYC and ban people they catch insider trading.

[–] Gates9@sh.itjust.works 17 points 3 days ago (1 children)

So Iran can watch the betting markets for signals of imminent attacks

[–] yakko@feddit.uk 6 points 3 days ago

A lot of these trades were timed to occur very close to the fact. It would be easier to just characterize this administration as prone to occasional random behaviours and sudden movements. Like an angry little monkey.

[–] mriormro@lemmy.zip 5 points 4 days ago

We’re so fucking stupid, man.

[–] etherphon@piefed.world 4 points 4 days ago

Disgusting.