this post was submitted on 08 Apr 2025
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189
44% of Icelanders in favour of joining the EU (www.visir.is)
submitted 4 days ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
19 comments fedilink hide all child comments
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[–] [email protected] 20 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Wonder whether they or Norway will join first.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

I'm guessing Iceland. Young norwegians are about as positive as Iceland in general but young norwegians don't vote.

Kind regards

Young norwegian :(

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 days ago (1 children)

What is the reason for them not voting?

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 days ago

I don't know. It's a thing in many countries. I assume that many either don't know who to vote for or just don't care about voting yet. Maybe a combination.

Last time (in 2023) only 45,5% of norwegians aged 20-24 voted. For those aged 25-44 it was 52,5%. After that it grows rapidly.

I cared less about politics as a teenager which made learning more about each party less interesting. I've been gradually caring more as I get older. I assume many experience this to some degree.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago)

About 44 percent favor joining the European Union

More than 44 percent are in favor of Iceland joining the European Union, while nearly 36 percent are opposed. This is revealed in the new Gallup National Poll. It also shows that this is a similar proportion to three years ago, when support for accession had been increasing.

A total of 36 percent oppose accession and twenty percent are neither in favor nor opposed. The Gallup poll shows that fifteen years ago 26 percent were in favor of Iceland joining the European Union, 37 percent eleven years ago and 47 percent three years ago.

Residents of the capital area are more in favor of accession than residents of the countryside, and people with a university education are also more in favor of accession than people with less education. If we look at which party people voted for in the last parliamentary elections, those who voted for Viðreisn are more in favor of accession than those who voted for the Samfylkinga.

Those who voted for the Progressive Party are mostly opposed, or 81 percent, while voters for the Centre Party and the Independence Party are also somewhat opposed. 74 percent of Centre Party voters are opposed and 66 percent of Independence Party voters are opposed.

Large majority in favor of Iceland's membership in NATO

The same survey also asked about Iceland's membership in NATO. According to the survey, 71 percent of the population is in favor of Iceland's membership in NATO, while about twelve percent are opposed. This is a similar proportion to what has been measured previously.

People over 50 and under 30 are generally more in favor of Iceland's membership in NATO than people between 30 and 50, who are in turn more likely than younger and older people to say they are neither in favor nor opposed. Those who would vote for the Left Greens if the Althing were elected today are the least in favor of Iceland's membership in NATO, followed by those who voted for the Pirate Party and the Socialist Party of Iceland. However, more people who vote for these parties are in favor of Iceland's membership in NATO than those who vote for these parties and are opposed.

Those who voted for the ruling parties or the Progressive Party are mostly in favor of Iceland's presence in NATO.

translated webpage including images, graphs and trackers: https://www-visir-is.translate.goog/g/20252711824d/um-44-prosent-hlynnt-inn-gongu-i-evropu-sam-bandid?_x_tr_sl=is&_x_tr_tl=en

[–] [email protected] 11 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Yeah, you may want to pick it up on that - orangeboi will probably start making annexation noises soon

[–] [email protected] 4 points 3 days ago (1 children)

The US has invaded Iceland before…

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

Did it? I thought that was Britain, in 1941.

(Edited to say: May 1940 - that was earlier than I'd thought.)

[–] [email protected] -2 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Then democratically, that’s a ‘no.’

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Only 36% are no. So a +8 poll with 20% undecided. Definitely could swing the other way if it came to a vote/referendum, but you'd almost definitely rather be the candidate with +8 if this were an election

[–] [email protected] -1 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Hmm. Neoliberals really need to stop counting undecided’s as people who will vote as they are expected. That’s played out with some very wild consequences for the past decade globally.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Yes. But... This poll doesn't do that. The headline calls out 44% as the top line number, which includes 0 undecided. The tone of the headline as positive news for those in favor of EU membership is based on an implicit assertion that only 30% of undecideds would be needed to clear the 50% mark, which is a pretty good margin of error on the 50/50 division that you might naively assign to a population you have no other data on, especially before you take into a count those who may opt not to vote. It's also notable as an opinion poll for politicians actions outside of a direct referendum (not every issue will swing every vote, so knowing that this issue has more potential to swing votes towards vs. against you might encourage actions and rhetoric supporting a closer relationship with the EU. Finally, it's relevant as a comparison point to prior polls on this issue (in 2017, for example, a quick Google search suggests that the average was more like -20 margin opposed to EU membership, so the transition to +8 in favor is significant). It feels like you are arguing a straw man here, but maybe I am the one missing context.

[–] [email protected] -2 points 2 days ago (1 children)

You’re literally describing a hypothetical voter who would switch on this issue, according to some, and accusing me of inventing a strawman?

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 days ago (1 children)

I don't think I am describing any hypothetical voter switching? I'm defending the value of the poll as data, and describing how the poll's data could be extrapolated into a projection of positive or negative vibes for a desired result by comparing outcomes against naive assumptions on how undecided voters might distribute their votes. Maybe you are talking about that? I don't consider an undecided voter deciding how they will use their vote "switching" on an issue, and I tried to make it clear that I'm not saying anybody should count on any percentage of the undecided vote, just that you'd rather be in a position where you need fewer undecided voters to reach 50% vs more. I actually left out the nuance where opinions can change over the course of a campaign, causing voters to either switch or opt against voting, that does add uncertainty to an already uncertain process. Which is my point; your language is accusing "neoliberals" of "counting on votes", and I'm just arguing that this poll doesn't need to count on any votes to communicate a positive, if uncertain, picture of the potential future. Your comment feels like it would be more relevant on an opinion piece about this poll that says that this election is in the bag (kind of like how your original comment implied that this poll meant the election was in the bag as a no, as I read it), which is why I am confused. I'll admit, I can't read Icelandic, so I haven't read the article attached to this headline, which is maybe where I am missing context, I'm just reading the headline and a translated excerpt from the comments, so maybe there is an argument being made elsewhere in the article that I'm unaware of. I'm sorry if my tone was accusatory, I'm trying to express my confusion as to why your reaction to my comment was to talk about neoliberals counting votes, which seemed tangential to the comment I made

[–] [email protected] -1 points 2 days ago

So massaging the data to mean what you want is “extrapolation,” but pointing out that the raw data does not match your argument without broad assumptions on undecided voters is a “strawman.” Got it.

How many more ‘upsets’ and ‘unexpected outcomes’ will western governments need to go through before y’all stop this naïve paternalism towards undecideds?