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This is just the beginning peeps. Things are going to get way worse. The strategic petroleum reserves are at record lows and we're draining it everyday. If we were "energy independent" would we be using up our rainy day fund? Well the rainy day isn't stopping but the fund will run out. That's when panic sets in. Stock up on food now. Invest in a portable solar battery back up (or solar panels for your house if you can afford it). We're about to experience another "once in a lifetime event"
What is expected to happen that would need solar backup?
Realistically the largest risk I can see is fucked economy and job losses. So if anything I need enough money to cover mortgage payments for a while.
Anything that runs on petro is about to explode in price due to trumps stupidity.
And its not just gonna be food and manufactured goods, which depend on diesel for harvesting and transporting.
Its gonna be power too. And not just oil and gas plants, but coal, nuclear, wind, etc too.. because they all use diesel to get men and materials where they need to be. Not to mention petro-chemical derivatives like grease and plastics.
even raw material extraction is gonna skyrocket, because all those machines also run on diesel.
We've used the strategic stockpile to kick the can down the road, but once thats tapped out the significant reduction in oil is gonna hit home, and its gonna hit hard, and shits gonna skyrocket across the board because everything relies on gas and diesel in some form or another.
Your mortgage is a long term concern, being able to afford to eat with price increases due to petro costs rising across the board is the more immediate concern.
even raw material extraction is gonna skyrocket, because all those machines also run on diesel.
Be more forward thinking. A few generations of uranium and lithium mining with pickaxes and oxen drawn wagons will get the world economy up and running again.
We’ve used the strategic stockpile to kick the can down the road, but once thats tapped out the significant reduction in oil is gonna hit home, and its gonna hit hard, and shits gonna skyrocket across the board because everything relies on gas and diesel in some form or another.
They're running low to the point where there are concerns about whether or not the salt caves they're stored in can ever be used to store oil again:
Most Fertilizer is made from Oil.
Most farming (especially in the US, which is hugelly dependent on hybrid corn, which requires fertilizer since it grows with such a high density of plants that the natural fertility of the soil isn't enough) uses fertilizer.
So the lack of Oil will hit Food Production upstream from transportation, especially in the US.
any power plants running on certain fuels would in theory need to charge more or even shut down in the worst case. I don't know how much oil accounts for generation, but some countries still have a lot of gas and coal.
... as was foretold.
Once you've got the basics squared, do make sure you have a local copy of a suitably appropriate soundtrack.
Something like 25% of synthetic base oil production is currently offline.
Its doing some interesting things with manufacturer certifications as changing base oil supplier often voids the certification.
Oh shit... The price on Amazon is about $10.00 higher than last time I bought it... Like a month ago.
One of my friends is a mechanic and also a life-long Republican. He posts to Facebook several times a day, so the last few months have given me a fascinating view into his thoughts.
At the beginning of the war, he laughed because he had a customer ask if they should stock up on motor oil to avoid price increases. His post was really dismissive - calling the customer a nut job for being concerned about the price of oil.
A few weeks later, he made a post asking other mechanics for advice. He'd noticed that oil prices shot up, but he was still sitting on some oil he'd purchased previously. He asked if he should keep his oil change prices low, or if he should raise his prices to prepare for when he had to buy oil next.
His recent posts have been about leaving MAGA. So maybe there is some hope for him yet? However, he still doesn't seem to be leaving the Republican party. Just maybe realizing the Trump is not his lord and savior. I suspect in a couple more years, there will be no one left that claims to have lived Trump. Kind of like how Republicans now denounce George Dubya, even though they were all in at the time.
This oil thing is gonna slap hard in November. People still use oil burners in some places as the main means of heating. Too bad this year will be a wet winter with no oil to heat. I'm prepared for a good couple of weeks thus year. A couple of years ago we lost power for an entire 2 weeks.
Heating oil will be the least of everyone's concern when they can't afford to drive to work or buy groceries, assuming they still have a job.
We switched to fully electric cars 5 years ago. Guess this is one more reason that that was a good decision.
Yeah, but most of the shipping industry still needs motor oil. I'm more worried about what this is going to go to the price of other goods
I believe all EVs have some kind of gearcase oil; mine certainly does. It doesn’t need changing for a long time, but it is going to be effected - still, way ahead of the regular interval oil changes!
All of the plastic in your electric car is made from petroleum.
Yeah, but I don't need to replace that regularly.
No, but it does mean that replacement EVs are going to get more expensive too.
Luckily you usually don't have to replace your car regularly either.
That’s not my point. Just because you could afford to upgrade 5 years ago doesn’t mean everybody could and shit is just going to get more expensive.
Ah okay, sorry... misunderstood your comment.
Yes, it's of course pretty bad that everything gets more expensive.
Your Republican party is destroying the federal government. All that will be left when they are done are the guns and jackboots.
Full synthetic oil isn't made from any "real" oil. It's a hugely complicated chemical process and people won nobel prizes for it. I don't understand how this could affect real full synthetic oil.
Full synthetic oil isn’t made from any “real” oil.
I'm sorry to say that synthetic oil production most definitely does use hydrocarbons sourced from crude oil. It is possible use other feedstocks like natural gas, coal, biomass, but oil is still the most economical. Pennzoil was using natural gas, but have stopped recently because the refinery was damaged due to the war.
Some synthetic oils are made from Group III base stock and some from Group IV, while other synthetic oils may be a blend of the two. Mobil sued Castrol and Castrol prevailed in showing that their Group III base stock oil was changed enough that it qualified as full synthetic. Since then American Petroleum Institute (API) has removed all references to synthetic in their documentation regarding standards. "Full synthetic" is a marketing term and is not a measurable quality.
It’s just “real oil” that’s sufficiently modified to not resemble the base oil enough.
Lubricant base oil is sourced primarily from the Middle East, including synthetic oils, greases, gear oils, and other products like transmission fluids. Including that for electric vehicles. Additionally, synthetic oils can be manufactured from natural gas, which is also sourced from the Middle East for most of the world.
They're probably trying to prevent bulk buying from people running their old Diesel engines off of it
Wouldn't cooking oil be cheaper? A biodiesel conversion is supposed to be cheap, isn't it?
There's no way that synthetic motor oil, a lubricant manufactured to very demanding characteristics, is a cost effective fuel. It'd be like burning new furniture for heat.
These are the same people buying trucks with 5 mpg and then having the audacity to bitch about gas prices.
It comes out to $19.30/gallon, how does that make any sense?
Rationing Motor Oil
During a Climate Crisis
GOOD
Ration the private jets, the rest of us have to work for next months rent
An unintentional W for war is the push away from fossil fuels.
Welp guess it time to get out me old whaling harpoon
Why is this low before petrol which is used so much more?
In April, Iran hit the shell owned refinery in Qatar that primary makes lubricating oils. That refinery and the rest behind the strait of Hormuz account for around half of the US's supply of lubricating oils.
Repairs to that refinery are estimated to take a year to complete once its safe to do so. Domestic refineries to replace that capacity aren't expected to come online until 2027. Even if the war ended in May, these lubricating oil shortages were coming regardless.
This is something that those in the industry knew was coming for a while.
What about the global supply, most of us don't care about the US supply, they voted for this mess.
Petroleum products are pretty fungible. Shortages in the normal supply to the U.S. raise the prices there. This increases profits to be made by diverting supply that would normally go elsewhere to the U.S. instead, raising prices elsewhere. It's a worldwide market. Some exceptions due to geo-political factors do apply, but in general a shortage anywhere is a shortage everywhere.
My inexpert understanding is that more oil is suitable for petrol production than heavier petroleum products like diesel or motor oils, etc.