this post was submitted on 11 May 2026
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If Current Trends Continue, Linux Will be a Dominant OS in ~10 Years

https://logicalerzor.codeberg.page/blog/linux-desktop-growth-trajectory/

#Linux @linux

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[–] Digit@lemmy.wtf 5 points 7 hours ago

Already is.

And wtf graphs

[–] Grail@multiverse.soulism.net 104 points 1 day ago (1 children)
[–] Malgas@beehaw.org 21 points 1 day ago (1 children)

When I think about this comic, it's always the alt-text that comes to mind:

By the third trimester, there will be hundreds of babies inside you.

[–] timestatic@feddit.org 5 points 1 day ago

XKCD is gold

[–] starik@lemmy.zip 62 points 1 day ago (1 children)

At her current rate of growth, my niece will weigh 290,000 pounds by the time she’s 10 years old.

[–] zergtoshi@lemmy.world 37 points 1 day ago

It already is. The headline is missing "desktop".

[–] dgriffith@aussie.zone 92 points 1 day ago

"If these trends continue..... Eyyyyy!"

Disco Stu creative interpretation of trends

[–] rafoix@lemmy.zip 71 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (2 children)

I had sex 20 minutes ago. If these trends continue I will have sex every hour until the end of time. /s

[–] W3dd1e@lemmy.zip 25 points 1 day ago

This guy fucks.

[–] MidsizedSedan@lemmy.world 3 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Is it possible to learn this power...

[–] rafoix@lemmy.zip 9 points 1 day ago

Nope, it only happens when I’m around women that make horrible life choices.

[–] DiarrheaSommelier@lemmy.ca 50 points 1 day ago (3 children)

Yes, that's correct. If you cherrypick data and extrapolate your preferred assumptions about it you can make it say the thing you want.

Like that post on that other site we don’t talk about where that guy decided to make the claim that Patrick Mahomes is average if you just make his stats average.

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[–] sbeak@sopuli.xyz 13 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Extrapolated data aside, Linux is already the dominant OS (really, family of operating systems, since Debian, RHEL, etc. are separate operating systems) for servers. Additionally, the majority of smartphones run Android, which uses the Linux kernel. And yes, everyone knows, it's as much of a Linux distribution as iOS is based on BSD, but still.

[–] peterhorvath@mastodon.de 1 points 1 day ago (1 children)

@sbeak @Logical_Error Yes. And the sad truth is, being open source, gpl2, it is still possible to do with it the same evil as iSatan does. :-( We must fight!

[–] sbeak@sopuli.xyz 2 points 1 day ago (2 children)

I believe BSD uses the permissive BSD license, not the copyleft GPL license. Both are open-source but do it slightly differently.

[–] sbeak@sopuli.xyz 2 points 1 day ago

from another comment I made on licenses:

They are needed to tell users and developers what they can do with the project and whether they can change the source code, redistribute it, etc. Having no license by default means others can't look at your code or modify it in any way, as the terms on how to do so are not defined!

There are several licenses that are used for open-source projects. Generally, they are grouped as either permissive licenses (like MIT) or copyleft/protective licenses (like GPLv3). In a nutshell, permissive licenses gives the developer (or, in the case of commercial use of open-source code, the company) more freedom as the code can be used in any kind of project, including proprietary ones. In contrast, copyleft licenses aim to give users more freedom by ensuring that the code can only be used in projects that also use an open-source license.

There are other elements to licenses too, like how code used should be attributed, whether you are allowed to fork the project, additional copyleft restrictions for SaaS applications (see AGPLv3), loosening of copyleft restrictions (see LGPLv3), etc.

[–] peterhorvath@mastodon.de 0 points 1 day ago (1 children)

@sbeak Problem of the BSD license is that it can be forked and closed... macos was once a BSD...

[–] sbeak@sopuli.xyz 1 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Yes, that was my point, sorry if it wasn't clear. You mentioned GPL, which is copyleft (which tries to resolve this issue by ensuring that projects using GPL code also need to be open source)

[–] AmbitiousProcess@piefed.social 33 points 1 day ago (6 children)

There really just isn't enough data here to make those conclusions.

For example, here's the Steam survey data plotted without the added estimated graph lines.

image

Mostly flat, slow trend upwards, slightly sharper increase more recently.

That could flatline again, curve back down, grow way slower, grow way faster, etc. There's just not enough data there to predict the next 4X as long amount of time anywhere close to accurately.

[–] a_non_monotonic_function@lemmy.world 2 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 5 hours ago)

Lol, it certainly won't if you only give us the start of the image!

Here. I filled it in for you and it took, like, 10 seconds?

[–] saltesc@lemmy.world 16 points 1 day ago

Yep. People don't understand that data analysis and social anthropology don't pair well together. If they did, life would be a lot simpler because crystal ball. As it is, this data gives zero insight into what tech, society, and events will do in the upcoming decade. All variables are entirely unpredictable and history shows us time and time again that only a fool would try factor or predict them.

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[–] ruuster13@lemmy.zip 20 points 1 day ago

The decade of the year of the Linux desktop

[–] esc@piefed.social 19 points 1 day ago

What? Linux is the dominant OS right now.

[–] Johnnyvibrant@discuss.tchncs.de 12 points 1 day ago (1 children)

FOSS isn’t a race, FOSS is plant life…it doesn’t need to dominate or win anything. It just needs to survive.

FOSS is already in most proprietary software already and Linux powers most devices.

Year of the Linux desktop is a pointless metric.

[–] Sxan@piefed.zip -1 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Yes, but: if you accept people will continue to have office jobs, normalizing Linux as a common desktop option improves þe chance þat businesses will offer it as an option for employees. It happened wiþ Macbooks.

Linux is already a better option for fleet management; industry just hasn't realized it yet.

[–] peterhorvath@mastodon.de 1 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

@Sxan @Johnnyvibrant I installed linux to my company laptop as an "emergency" because my windows became unbootable, then somehow it remained, sadly ;-)

I know it was risky, but there was a point of the revolt.

I knew that the same stupidity and generally depressive mentality, which prevents my boss to directly call me about it (I actually did not even had a boss), so the same won't likely tolerate it.

Until I do not make it too open. Doing the same well visibly, it had probably not been tolerated.

[–] MidsizedSedan@lemmy.world 9 points 1 day ago

Finally. 2036 is the year of the Linux desktop

[–] A_norny_mousse@piefed.zip 11 points 1 day ago

It already is.

(you didn't specify what type of OS)

Also, I'm not really interested in domination.

[–] schnurrito@discuss.tchncs.de 8 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Windows becoming a Linux distribution.

not what I want, I want Windows (as in, the existing Windows codebase) to become FOSS, if that happened, we would no longer need to care about anyone switching to Linux, in fact I might then install a FOSS Windows myself

[–] jaybone@lemmy.zip 7 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Last I checked, their APIs are pretty terrible. Though that was over a decade ago.

[–] hexagonwin@lemmy.today 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

it would be awesome to have windows hardware drivers working in fossland though

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[–] FreddiesLantern@leminal.space 3 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (2 children)

imagines tux with a leather whip giving windows a good run for it’s naughty boy money

Is it getting warm in here or is that just me?

(checks climate chart) ...it's not just you, unfortunately

[–] MidsizedSedan@lemmy.world 2 points 1 day ago

You're not alone

[–] fluffykittycat@slrpnk.net 3 points 1 day ago

This isn't totally crazy. Microsoft is heavily invested in the AI bubble and will not go as they will have less money to fund windows, which is already losing all of its competitive edges and is not working right. The niche is where windows will be necessary instead of a choice that can easily be done away with are going to shrink possibly all the way down to Legacy business application support at which point even then it would be a heterogeneous environment at those companies

[–] wltr@discuss.tchncs.de 2 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

There are countless of paper cuts a normie would get. I’m all for Linux, but I don’t believe it. I’d rather believe Windows would go into oblivion and macOS would take its place with laptops for $200…300 (at least used Neos in like 5 years).

[–] Feyter@programming.dev 5 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I think you underestimating ChromeOS

[–] wltr@discuss.tchncs.de 4 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Right, forgot someone counts that as Linux. Which it technically is, but is not what we mean when we say Linux on a desktop. For a normie it’s still just a browser on a laptop.

[–] Feyter@programming.dev 2 points 8 hours ago (1 children)

I wouldn't count it as desktop Linux as well. But I think it's much more likely for chrome to take over Windows than it is for macOS.

Apple business strategy is to sell ~~overpriced~~ premium hardware. They don't want to sell 300$ notebooks.

[–] wltr@discuss.tchncs.de 1 points 7 hours ago

Let’s see what would Neo become in like 5 years on second hand market.

[–] pulsewidth@lemmy.world 2 points 1 day ago

Yep. It's happening. Ignore the naysayers.

The market share data showing increase is still early to make sweeping predictions on, but that's not important because the processes driving the uptake are measurable and show consistent trends.

Windows won't get better. Apple won't get cheaper. Steam will continue supporting investment in Linux. Linux will continue to get more developers and community support and keep improving from its already very respectable usability.

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