I just have no patience to listen to "what if" the whole night.

"That's not an applause line." lol

Can't believe the CBC Live news coverage .... just a moment ago, they asked Conservative Jason Kenny what his thoughts were on resource development in regards to First Nations

What the hell do you think he's going to say

It's like asking a Irishman what his thoughts are of potatoes

The comment about Fanjoy potentially winning! Oooh roasted!

Just in case anyone is using 338 for info:

• the higher voter turnout so far indicates this type of model will be less accurate this election.
• the riding numbers are from provincial polling, there is no per riding polling incorporated. With increased turnout, I expect these to be less accurate.
• the model works by rating pollsters based on how well the predict past elections. That’s why increased turnout means things may swing from their forecast.

All that adds up to the potential for huge swings in votes, swings that can go either direction.

Things to watch for:

• Gen Z men’s rightward swing. Expect high turnout from this group for the Conservatives. They consume a lot of right wing media and have been struggling with tough economic conditions, so will be motivated.
• Boomer influence is waning — this is the first election they are not the largest demographic.
• Gen X are actually wealthier than boomers and are the only demographic that en masse had better economic outlooks since COVID. I don’t know if they’re going to stay the coarse with LPC or vote CPC for the tax cuts, traditionally more income swings right, especially with how Pollievre wants to change housing taxes
• Older women and Quebec are very anti-Pollievre, this might end up with a suppressed vote or a very strong vote LPC.
• Rural areas I think will swing more conservative than ever, and this might be where the forecasts swing. E.g. rural Ontario may not be as safe as thought.

TLDR be prepared for surprises today.

PP's riding update as of approximately midnight EST:

Image Source: Globalnews

• 105,000 eligible voters (Source: Citizen)

• 43,394 people cast an early ballot (Source: CTV News)

Alternative: National Post > Just the subframe for Carleton

NDP needs to drop Singh. Conservatives need to drop PP.

I may as well get to bed, but I wish I would know before if the NDP will have enough seats to prop up an LPC minority. I'd hate to see the LPC+NDP be one or two seats short, leaving the CPC/BQ with enough votes to stymie everything. Right now it's sitting at 170 combined, need 172 or more to make it work.

"He's earned his right to stay as leader."
Dude it's not even guaranteed that he's keeping his seat.

CBC reporting that some people are finding that the elections Canada website is not working.

If you find the Election Canada Website is down for you try checking here

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2025/results/

Going to keep myself in the dark until tomorrow morning. Good luck Canada's democracy!

Edit: I see democracy has prevailed! And a minority with NDP holding the power balance is a favourable result for progressives!

CANADA DOESNT NEED A SMALL ~pp~

I have mixed emotions today. I grieved for a few days after tRump was elected in 2024, processing the state and direction of the US. I've never had such a powerful reaction to election results before. I'm guarding myself for the possibility that PP forms a minority government. Improbable but possible. I would hurt and be worried, like I was after tRump last fall.

I voted in the advance polls over Easter weekend, when 7.2 million Canadians turned out iirc. I felt a greater than usual sense of civic duty amongst voters in the voting station - like people felt it especially important to have their voice heard in this election.

Voting typically inspires some pride in me about this country we are fortunate to call home. And although I've nervously been checking CBC News today for issues at polling stations, I also take pride in our voting process. The shit that goes on in the States in and around voting stations is obscene and very undemocratic. Thankfully I've read about no voting-related issues so far. (Our thoughts though are with the Filipino community and everyone affected by the tragedy in BC.)

Ideally, I'd like to have a Liberal minority with an NDP coalition. Second best would be a Liberal majority. I think that's the most likely outcome. For ABC reasons (especially now that C is MAGA-lite), I'd accept it.

tRump's comments today - presumably undermining PP's votes more than anything - surprised me. As did some comments DoFo made about PP and Carney over the weekend. It made me realize that the Conservative party leaders (Marlaina, schMoe, DoFo, PP) in this country have quite different relationships with the other adjacent political forces (i.e., Carney and tRump).

I'm looking forward to election coverage tonight! And I hope to breathe a sigh of relief soon. Don't @#$% this one up, Canada!

Interactive live results pages are clearly losing this election.

The numbers for Fanjoy have been holding above 2300 for over an hour, as writing this, 219 of 266 polls.