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Expert Who Ran Simulations on 'How Civil Wars Start' Warns Minnesota Is Exactly What It Looks Like
(www.commondreams.org)
this post was submitted on 22 Jan 2026
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The Second American Civil War started with the murder of George Floyd.
Open civil war is starting right now.
Has this term "civil war" just lost all meaning along with "literally" and "gaslight?"
A civil war is definitionally when two internal armies of a country fight on a large scale.
We do not have that, we do not have an army. Organized protests turning violent are "civil disruption" or "destabilization" at worst. We're about a century off from this turning into a "civil war" because there would need to be opposing armies.
I get that it feels viscerally satisfying to imagine actually firing weapons at these assholes but we're not in that world yet. They have the system, they have the national guard and other armed forces. They have most of the police and most of the justice system.
If we want to change this, we do it with community and organization. In the words of one powerful protestor in Minneapolis: "The democrats will not save you. The republicans will not save you. Nobody is coming. Only your neighbor will save you." We have to get back to community and organization or this will go from isolated protests and unrest to a quiet, locked-down nation of people too afraid to move LONG before it turns into an actual war. Despite what grifters on both sides want you to believe.
I despise these headlines and stories, it's just attention-baiting, and you're all falling for it because you want to see change happen but you don't know how to get there. There are better ways to get there, but they require involvement in some boring shit. I'm sorry and I wish there was a better answer for this.
edit: here, this group has had a hand in electing the most recent wave of progressive and socialist state leaders and mayors around the country. They need volunteers, they need people to help them. It's not as fun as imagining throwing molotovs at feds, but it does a lot more good:
https://www.progressivevictory.win/
Reminder that Mussolini was not overthrown by a ragtag band of plucky rebels, he was handed over to the opposition by his own government and arrested by the king of Italy himself as political pressure grew and the establishment feared the approach of allied nations. Pressure and politics still moves mountains, and even if we had that band of armed rebels, we would need politics to figure out how to live next to the millions of people who didn't vote for a coup or civil war. Lets fix this by starting in our communities and do a Mamdani-Effect across the whole country. It will kick the legs out from this current kleptocracy.
I think being a "century off from civil war" is a little disingenuous. Things are too tumultuous right now to predict what things will look like in 4 years, let alone 100.
I think we're currently in a time of dramatic transition that will go one of two ways: full on opposition from a coalition of states against the current regime, or total capitulation that will likely only be broken by foreign intervention. This of course relies on Trump not backing down or anything that would be reasonably expected to de-escalate the situation, but with him and the current Republican party, I am not willing to give them any benefit of any doubt. I've been around Republicans my entire life and fit into the disguise of "straight white guy" very well as a kid. I know what they say when they think they're amongst like minds. I saw it all the way back in 2000.
I don't know if you would technically define it as civil war, but I believe the systems are in place for such a conflict to occur if the current situation were to "go hot" and states were to decide to mobilize their national guard regiments/reserves and (for lack of a better word) "nationalize" the military assets within their borders. A schism in the military could very well happen at that point with individual units placing their loyalty with either their states or the federal government. The feds may control the country on paper, but thanks to state's rights, much of the daily workings are purely at the digression of the states. The highway system is federally owned, but it's the state DoTs that maintain them and the states that patrol them and allow access for trade and commerce between their borders. As easily as we have checkpoints along the borders with Mexico and Canada, states could fashion along the interstate transit corridors and strangle the flow of goods and people between regions.
I do think the most likely scenario though is total capitulation by the state governments in favor of a justice that will never come from the courts, and I expect to see a growing movement of armed militia groups akin to the Black Panthers and leftists drifting further into militant extremism as trust in any sort of rule of law continues to erode under the continuing circumstances. Weapons are too easy to get or to make here for groups to not emerge. The FBI spends 50% of their time putting down white supremacist militias - or at least they did before 2016.
But I don't believe that we're "a century off" from civil war because I think the government will break long before then and whatever exists here in 100 years won't be the same as the US as we think of it today. It will be a Roman Empire vs Holy Roman Empire kind of thing imo. The same people living in the same dirt, but a government pretending to be a nation that once stood in the same place but has since vanished into the annals of history.
They already said this is the second American Revolution that will be bloodless if the left allows it to be. They have already declared war in July 2024. For fucks sake! That was the heritage foundation! They are running the fucking government now!
Wake the fuck up already. Quit lecturing and pay the fuck attention!
You’re not wrong about community but you’re wrong to play down the fact they have already declared war on the United States!
This is some internet-brain panic, if you think it's "lecturing" you really need to go outside and spend time with the vast majority of America who are in their own states who have their own agendas and laws in play. The ICE thing is happening in isolated areas with the intention of making people like you say things like this:
"they have already declared war on the United States!"
I'm not saying it's not bad, I'm saying focus for fuck's sake. There is no revolution happening, there is no civil war, there are politics happening and we beat it with counter-politics, no other way. Keep marching and protesting, it's helping, but it's not the solution by itself.
It's blunt and disappointing to people who want to see justice, but it's just the way it works. I promise you, it will be okay... if the US is really in the decline, which it might be, you likely won't be alive by the time states stop sending representatives to DC.
I’d argue it started in 2010 with the occupy Wall Street movement. It made oligarchs nervous and start us down the road we are on currently.
Tim pool came out of that. I think ows did scare the shit out of them.
Did the first one ever truly end? You've had people waving the Confederate flag since the North "won".
This is the price of doing half a job.
Well worth a read. Phases of the American Civil War:
A "2nd" Civil War would just be going from a cold to hot phase of the same conflict, ongoing since the 18th Century
https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2014/09/phases-of-american-civil-war.html?m=1
We never made them take down their idols and they were able to name buildings after their generals. They kept their flag. We incubated them.
Now, that's not to say that stopping all of this would have fixed it, there are still Nazi's in Germany and they were really good at suppressing that bullshit.
I disagree. It started with electing Obama. That is what truly broke all the minds of all the racists.
all i know is, as someone born in the early 90s, I know I never got to experience the 'before'. I think it happened at 9/11
Awfully peaceful cival war you've been having sir. Iran be wanting some of that peaceful civil war action, can you serve it up for them?
I see "civil war" posts pop up in Lemmy as often as I hear Tim Fucking Pool talk about "civil war" it's just bait and pandering bullshit. We're about a century from a civil war and a lot of things would need to line up. Even the violence in Iran is barely approaching a "civil war" because they don't really have an opposing army... I see that turning into is an "armed rebellion" or a "coup" at most, but I swear the majority of people just say words without knowing or caring what they mean.
What the actual fuck is with this what aboutism? Dude, civil wars take many forms sometimes it's the Russian civil war that goes on for years with numerous factions other times it's the Swiss civil war where it lasted for 3 weeks and five days and was honestly pretty mild by war standards.
Definitionally it's when two internal armies clash on a large scale. Everything else is considered civil instability, armed rebellions or coups or insurrections, there IS a difference and words have meaning. Because the outcomes of each can have profound consequences.
The better question we should be asking is why do you want it to be a civil war?
Because I'm a Californian Nationalist and want to see the United States reduced to the historical record, mostly because I think the feds do way more bad than good and I don't see a path forward that doesn't end result with the destruction of the United states.
Honest. Points for not trying to paint it with some kind of liberal aesthetic like most people.
Understand though that if the USA dissolves, and the Cascadian states form their own power bloc, which may well likely happen, it most likely won't be in your lifetime.
Couldn't give less of a fuck about the Cascadian region joining or not, I'm from SoCal my interests are firmly Eastward not northward. Namely removing that blight apon North America known as the Mormon corridor.
But besides my genocidal ideations, I think the dissolving of the United States would overall be better in the long term within and without its territory. It'll just suck liquid ass for a decade or two while shit stabilizes into a new status quo. I want to see the various cultures under the United States flourish but that ain't happening with the continued existence of an American identity.
But also the rabid nationalism on my side of things that has me barely caring if I'm right or not.
It kinda sounds like roleplay but at least you have passion. Get involved in your community, you wont get that NC Ranger Armor outfit in your lifetime but you can make a world of difference understanding the current politics and supporting people who actually represent values for better outcomes. Less fun, a lot more realistic.
If you know of any California focused organizations in the IE then let me hear them. But the closest thing to an organization who at least as of now matches with me is the DSA, and even they are too focused on federal level shit.
Progressive Victory is a national organization but they are a very strong presence for endorsing and organizing oppositional efforts on a political level, and helped get socialist and progressive candidates elected in places like Seattle and New York. I know for a fact they have a very strong California presence and can help get you lined up to support those candidates in a variety of ways.
You might not get your glorious Californian empire, unless the San Andreas fault does something wacky and the whole state ends up in international waters, but you can help keep a lot of people from suffering needlessly under authoritarianism in the immediate coming decades. I hope you make good choices and find your calling and reach out to others to build community.
Maybe it’s been peaceful for you, however I imagine the citizens of Minneapolis would heartily agree that this feels anything but peaceful.
The ten thousand dead in the past month in Iran would love some.of that Minneapolis prelivedged soap opera style violence.
Yeah both things are wrong, you aren’t incorrect there. However it is an absolutely unfair and bad faith comparison and you know it.
How is it a bad comparison? If one person in a car accident gets a scraped toe, and another one gets their leg cut off; the person with the amputated leg absolutely has the right to tell the other one to quit their bitching.
You’re so much better than them. We fucking get it.