this post was submitted on 08 Jul 2026
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Countries and politicians commit to a lot of things that they later back out of due to various reasons. Agreements without penalties are optional.
In this case, Turnup being an unpredictable self-centered loser in charge of a large and dangerous military is considered a sufficient reason to bend the knee for now. If he fails his coup we will may stop spending. If he succeeds, then I think we will continue spending.
Sure, Obama and Biden exercised a good deal of parsimony which allowed the Trudeau government to underspend for years. But of all the things the USA is terrorizing the world right now, holding NATO accountable for the spending commitments is the least egregious one, they're not really in the wrong here, they're just being real dicks about it. Demanding it to be raised to 5%, however, is where this demon is really manifesting, and having Carney agree to that increase is another place where I think it's fair to criticize him, I think Carney is just banking on the fact that Trump is not getting reelected.
Right... but maybe the 5% is warranted, because of the ongoing collapse of American hegemony?
We need Middle Powers to have leverage, and part of that will depend on being able to collectively stand up to military aggression from our "allies", let alone rivals.
In other words, what is the likelihood that Canada faces an existential crisis due to having insufficient investment in our military, and how much investment is required to mitigate that risk? What's the cost-benefit analysis?
I don't pretend to know enough to have an answer, but there are real concerns, not just posturing to placate a petulant would-be dictator.