this post was submitted on 21 Apr 2026
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I'll shoot in the dark...
Arson. Someone is setting on fire either the cereal crops or grain silos. On the surface it could look like gang wars or factions fighting each other (sorry I don't know if your setting has medieval government style or if it's more contemporary, but you get the idea).That could be sinister on its own, but maybe the arson is the means to an end (maybe someone needs a gargantuan amount of cereal ashes for a ritual or something...). The factions could be aristocratic ( one Marquis against another) or of production type (winemakers aren't doing well, so one unscrupulous winemaker decides to play a dirty move against the beermakers).
Other sinister reasons... A mysterious disease or condition that only attacks beer makers and/or cereal farmers, if they're local. Turns out there is some mad scientist/alchemist among the beermakers, and is using the people around him as test subjects for his poisons or diseases.
Both these reasons would also come with a short supply of beer though. And if you affect cereal you would also see shortages in many other things that use cereal. Perhaps it's safer to have something affecting the beermakers themselves and not so much the cereals.
I'm not sure if this suits or what other things you would be okay with, for example, would an increase in beer demand be okay? How much magic in this? How crazy is too crazy? I guess it's easier to think of inflation as a generalized thing, not so much specific of a single product in an area.