this post was submitted on 19 May 2026
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Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has signed the nation's first law banning prediction market sites from operating in the state, the most far-reaching crackdown on massively popular services like Kalshi and Polymarket.

It comes as states confront a growing standoff with the Trump administration over how to regulate the industry, which allows people to bet on virtually anything.

The new state law makes it a crime to host or advertise a prediction market, which it defines as a system that lets consumers place a wager on a future outcome, like sports, elections, weather, live entertainment, someone's word choice and world affairs.

The prohibition extends to services supporting prediction markets, like virtual private networks, that could allow consumers to disguise their location and get around the ban.

It would force prediction market sites like Kalshi and Polymarket to leave the state, or face possible felony charges. The law takes effect in August.

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[–] SpaceNoodle@lemmy.world 156 points 2 months ago (27 children)

The prohibition extends to services supporting prediction markets, like virtual private networks ...

So they quietly just slipped a blanket VPN ban in there, too? Would be interested to read more about that part ...

[–] kamenlady@lemmy.world 72 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (4 children)

like virtual private networks, that could allow consumers to disguise their location and get around the ban.

Seems to be the intention.

They should go further and ban people from leaving the state, since that could also be used to circumvent the ban.

[–] half_built_pyramids@lemmy.world 15 points 2 months ago

Prior to New Jersey amending their state constitution to allow online sports betting in 2011, and mostly leading to the opening of online gambling we're experiencing now, enforcement was usually taken against the "casinos" rather than the handlers. Back then it was CEOs of the betting companies getting caught on their flight layovers and charged with the illegal gambling stuff.

Doubt the intention is to enforce against the gamblers for the reasons already implied here, like the difficulty of tracking and enforcing vpn monitoring.

[–] muusemuuse@sh.itjust.works 9 points 2 months ago (3 children)

These people have bank accounts. What not just pass a law saying banks can’t take payments from these sites instead of banning VPNs?

[–] Dultas@lemmy.world 7 points 2 months ago

Because banks have a better lobby and pay better.

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[–] 13igTyme@piefed.social 7 points 2 months ago (1 children)

So do they have a business exception or are they just saying fuck everyone including businesses? Which would be surprising.

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[–] teyrnon@sh.itjust.works 4 points 2 months ago (5 children)

Luckily due to the United States Constitution, the states can't tell you where you can and cannot go. Obviously with the police they can do whatever the fuck they want but officially we can go over we want.

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[–] lIlIlIlIlIlIl@lemmy.world 23 points 2 months ago

Hey what the fuck, good eye

[–] Rentlar@lemmy.ca 18 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Here is the relevant text of the signed bill SF4760, make your judgement as you will:

81.23 Subd. 2. Prediction markets; hosting prohibited. A person is guilty of a felony if the 81.24 person, for consideration and as part of a business

...

82.14 (5) provides supportive services to a prediction market or consumer knowing that the 82.15 services will be used to identify a consumer's location, transfer money, or make or process 82.16 payments for the purpose of allowing consumers to make wagers or to settle wagers made 82.17 by consumers in violation of this section.

[–] SpaceNoodle@lemmy.world 16 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

So they'd have to prove that the VPN provider somehow knew the user's intention? It will they just steamroll over the facts and claim that any provider should assume that?

[–] Rentlar@lemmy.ca 23 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

Good questions. At a minimum any VPN marketing in MN would need to tiptoe around claims that you can watch region locked content as if you were there.

Personally, I think VPNs that don’t receive or keep customers' info and logs could have a credible argument that they don't know whether their customers use it for prediction markets or not.

[–] SpaceNoodle@lemmy.world 13 points 2 months ago

Cue laws that VPNs monitor their clients' traffic

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[–] HubertManne@piefed.social 5 points 2 months ago

darnit I did not assimilate that well enough. ugh.

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[–] TheJesusaurus@piefed.ca 65 points 2 months ago (3 children)

Just FYI, sufficiently liquid prediction markets are also assassin markets by their nature.

It's a really easy way to facilitate payments for killings by "predicting" that someone will be dead by a certain date, and making a big bet against it

[–] tacosanonymous@mander.xyz 16 points 2 months ago (3 children)

It’s why we aren’t allowed to do “dead pools.”

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[–] teyrnon@sh.itjust.works 13 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (3 children)

That isn't really a new thing entirely, companies have our entire lives been able to take out life insurance on their employees without them knowing it. Which you know...

[–] pelespirit@sh.itjust.works 8 points 2 months ago (2 children)

This was reported, so I looked it up. Apparently, it's true. I also think it's your opinion that corporations might use for their own financial gain, so I won't remove it.

Corporate ownership of life insurance (COLI), or corporate-owned life insurance, refers to insurance policies taken out by companies on their employees, typically senior-level executives.

The company is responsible for making the premium payments, and if the person dies, the company, not the insured person's family or other heirs, receives the death benefit. Such policies came to be called "dead peasant insurance" after some companies purchased life insurance on low-level workers without their knowledge.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/corporate-ownership-of-life-insurance.asp

[–] teyrnon@sh.itjust.works 6 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Oh right the dead peasants' insurance thing this is like well after the fact, in like the 00s by walmart.

I guess I should have just looked it all up how hard could have been.

From what I understand they would take them out on technical employees fairly often as well, like scientists types that could not be easily replaced. But who knows what dirty dealings have gone on.

[–] pelespirit@sh.itjust.works 4 points 2 months ago (4 children)

Is that why they hire elderly people as greeters? Wow, they're pure evil.

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[–] Corkyskog@sh.itjust.works 4 points 2 months ago (1 children)

His opinion? Walmart was notorious for taking out life insurance policies on its rank and file workers. It happened for decades, there were even lawsuits, settlements, the whole 9 yards...

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[–] pelespirit@sh.itjust.works 10 points 2 months ago (1 children)
[–] TheJesusaurus@piefed.ca 38 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (5 children)

Hey, I bet you a million dollars a guy I don't like will still be alive tomorrow.

If you take that bet. You have a significant financial interest in ensuring that guy I don't like isn't still alive tomorrow

[–] pelespirit@sh.itjust.works 7 points 2 months ago (3 children)

I get what you were saying, I just have never heard of this happening. Are there court cases or articles on it?

[–] gAlienLifeform@lemmy.world 16 points 2 months ago (1 children)

No confirmed cases, but sci fi novels and commentators have been talking about it since the 90s - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market

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[–] TheJesusaurus@piefed.ca 4 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

I'm pretty sure that legal wide scale prediction markets have been around for like 2 years so maybe give it time

[–] schipelblorp@sh.itjust.works 6 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (5 children)

I honestly wonder if there isn't a deeper history. Gambling is a part of human culture and the only recent thing that's happened is our society has become so corrupt that gambling is being allowed to legally flourish.

Like bank deposit insurance, vaccines, and clean water standards, anti-gambling laws are something society is reminded it needs only after they are gone.

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[–] frustrated_phagocytosis@fedia.io 21 points 2 months ago (6 children)

Every day I regret leaving Minnesota for Texas, they keep doing what we need to do here and the damn state regime stomps down any progressive or practical solutions the blue cities try. I vote angry in every election.

[–] Texas_Hangover@lemmy.radio 6 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Something stopping you from going back?

[–] frustrated_phagocytosis@fedia.io 13 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Can't afford moving anywhere now. Have to work and save before I can get back north again.

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[–] HubertManne@piefed.social 15 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

I feel like if we could just organize and sythesize a list of the best blue state laws and enact them nationally we could have a pretty good country. I mean I would say like cali and minnesota and illinois but like new mexico to has some nice stuff along with the old guard east coast. EDITED ugh. just realized from another commenter the poison pill in the law.

[–] Semi_Hemi_Demigod@lemmy.world 8 points 2 months ago (1 children)
[–] dumples@piefed.social 5 points 2 months ago

I'm glad this slipped in before the session ended. These markets are super easy to manipulate and are basically gambling. They should be regulated like one

[–] SinAdjetivos@lemmy.world 7 points 2 months ago (3 children)

The amount of people who can't read past the headline and are missing that this is about banning VPNs and garnering public support for it is honestly horrifying.

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[–] null@lemmy.org 7 points 2 months ago

Bet they didn't predict that happening.

[–] Feathercrown@lemmy.world 6 points 2 months ago

Walz wins again!

[–] tomiant@piefed.social 4 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Man USA should just be Minnesota.

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