this post was submitted on 22 Jan 2026
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Experts are warning that the Trump administration's ongoing crackdown in Minnesota could quickly get out of hand and could even result in a second US civil war.

Claire Finkelstein, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School, wrote in a Wednesday column published by the Guardian that she and her colleagues at the Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law (CERL) conducted a tabletop exercise in October 2024 that simulated potential outcomes if a US president were to carry out law enforcement operations similar to the ones being conducted by the Trump administration with US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers in Minnesota.

"In that exercise, a president carried out a highly unpopular law-enforcement operation in Philadelphia and attempted to federalize the Pennsylvania’s National Guard," Finkelstein explained. "When the governor resisted and the guard remained loyal to the state, the president deployed active-duty troops, resulting in an armed conflict between state and federal forces."

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[–] homes@piefed.world 143 points 1 month ago (1 children)

We know. All of this is very horrible

[–] edible_funk@lemmy.world 32 points 1 month ago (2 children)

And incredibly predictable. I lost friends ten years ago when I said this is exactly what would happen.

[–] Signtist@bookwyr.me 27 points 1 month ago

Yeah, my sister thought I was a doomsayer for predicting it after Jan 6. She doesn't think that anymore now that she's driving her Hispanic friends' kids to school so they don't get kidnapped by the government.

[–] homes@piefed.world 9 points 1 month ago (5 children)

Yeah, and it’s not like we haven’t been through this before…

it can’t happen here!

It can, and it has, and it is.

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[–] Rentlar@lemmy.ca 99 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

The simulation also projected that the judiciary would be of little help to any state that found itself in the president’s crosshairs.

“We concluded that in a fast-moving emergency of this magnitude, courts would probably be unable or unwilling to intervene in time, leaving state officials without meaningful judicial relief,” Finkelstein explained. “State officials might file emergency motions to enjoin the use of federal troops, but judges would either fail to respond quickly enough or decline to rule on what they view as a ‘political question,’ leaving the conflict unresolved.”

So that panned out as predicted... (pdf of 8th circuit of appeals rubber-stamping the continuation of ICE violence on innocents)

[–] hector@lemmy.today 27 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Especially now as courts were forbidden from nationwide injunctions. That decision was a huge betrayal and the fact that media has not told us that just further proves they are failing in their jobs across the board.

[–] edible_funk@lemmy.world 15 points 1 month ago

Oh fuck I forgot about that. That's going to effectively balkanize the states as the reds pass more and more talibangelical legislation.

[–] aeronmelon@lemmy.world 60 points 1 month ago (21 children)

The Second American Civil War started with the murder of George Floyd.

Open civil war is starting right now.

[–] BaroqueBobby@lemmy.world 36 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I’d argue it started in 2010 with the occupy Wall Street movement. It made oligarchs nervous and start us down the road we are on currently.

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[–] Blackmist@feddit.uk 20 points 1 month ago

Did the first one ever truly end? You've had people waving the Confederate flag since the North "won".

This is the price of doing half a job.

[–] j_elgato@leminal.space 12 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Well worth a read. Phases of the American Civil War:

A "2nd" Civil War would just be going from a cold to hot phase of the same conflict, ongoing since the 18th Century

https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2014/09/phases-of-american-civil-war.html?m=1

[–] rumba@lemmy.zip 11 points 1 month ago

We never made them take down their idols and they were able to name buildings after their generals. They kept their flag. We incubated them.

Now, that's not to say that stopping all of this would have fixed it, there are still Nazi's in Germany and they were really good at suppressing that bullshit.

[–] anon_8675309@lemmy.world 6 points 1 month ago

I disagree. It started with electing Obama. That is what truly broke all the minds of all the racists.

[–] dreadbeef@lemmy.dbzer0.com 5 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

all i know is, as someone born in the early 90s, I know I never got to experience the 'before'. I think it happened at 9/11

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[–] AlecSadler@lemmy.dbzer0.com 38 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Whether a Civil War starts now or later...it isn't an if anymore, it's a when and I think we need to accept this and prepare / organize accordingly.

[–] Diurnambule@jlai.lu 10 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Please be after the steam frame is out.

[–] DeathByBigSad@sh.itjust.works 3 points 1 month ago (1 children)

+1 for the lulz

But how do you play when the electricity is out lol.

Are you rich enough to have an apocalypse bunker or something?

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[–] photonic_sorcerer@lemmy.dbzer0.com 37 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Yeah, why do you think Trump is doing this?

[–] Quill7513@slrpnk.net 31 points 1 month ago (1 children)

the regime offers us two choices:

  • organize and fight in the civil war they're so thirsty for
  • get genocided
[–] Nalivai@lemmy.world 3 points 1 month ago (1 children)

It's the same choice, why else do you think they want civil war so badly?

[–] Quill7513@slrpnk.net 6 points 1 month ago (17 children)

one involves organizing a resistance effort with your neighbors to keep vulnerable members of your community of your safe

the other involves saying "i don't appreciate being killed" as you're killed

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[–] Formfiller@lemmy.world 18 points 1 month ago (1 children)
[–] EightBitBlood@lemmy.world 6 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Actually, they don't. If a civil war started, it would likely end with the death of some billionaires and rightfully so. Ideally they want to deport and detain more people before starting a Civil War. If they do it too soon, they won't have the numbers to win. So please let them be stupid enough to do it too soon.

I'm ALL for 8 dead billionaires instead of decades of more governments becoming enshitified by the tech these clowns control.

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[–] fennesz12@feddit.dk 15 points 1 month ago (3 children)

American friends: None of you deserved this. Watching this shit from the sidelines is insane. Somehow you have normalized it. Like a frog in boiling water. Europeans are turning away now. Everything is about to get really fucking ugly.

[–] tonytins@pawb.social 8 points 1 month ago

The GOP normalized this. They brute forced Trump in as a candidate the second time around. It didn't matter if he joined the primaries or not, he was going to ballet no matter what.

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[–] Fedizen@lemmy.world 13 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Simulations are stored in the piss.

What happens when 3+ states do this? Imo like the Maduro snatching, the tariffs, etc, these dorks only think 1 step ahead, not 3.

[–] echodot@feddit.uk 11 points 1 month ago

I'm pretty sure that's actually the point.

They want violence so they can justify themselves. Because if it ever gets to the point where these monsters are in front of a judge they're going to need some justification or they're going to have a bad time. They knew this, or at least some of them know this, and therefore are trying to manufacture consent.

This is blindingly obvious. Everything this administration do is basic, they have the political strategies of a toddler who is having a tantrum because he's not being allowed to drink bleach. In trump's case, literally.

[–] Lushed_Lungfish@lemmy.ca 5 points 1 month ago

Well, if they do end up going that way, I hope they are a bit more thorough with the follow through this time.

[–] m3t00@lemmy.world 3 points 1 month ago

starts with the premise, 'there will be civil war'. i reject the premise but may have unregistered weapons

[–] ABetterTomorrow@sh.itjust.works 3 points 1 month ago

Everything happens in Minnesota

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