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Don't worry, the regime won't let there be a legitimate election
Do. Not. Trust. Polls.
DO. NOT. TRUST. POLLS.
This feels like a fucking repeat of the 2024 election. The internet naively believing they know the outcome, because certainly people can't be that ignorant and shitty, can they?
They can.
They are.
Go talk to people in the real world, instead of reading articles written by fellow shut-ins, and realize that the narrative is FAR different for the average person. You people are setting yourselves up for disappointment. Again.
My prediction is the Dems will pick up just barely enough seats to take back control of the House. Not a snowballs chance in hell of taking back the Senate.
The only poll that matters is in November
You speak sense. We can’t keep falling for these polls.
You're one of those folks who are too stupid to understand probabilities and what polls are actually saying, aren't you?
The polls in the run-up to the 2024 Presidential election were actually pretty good. The final aggregate error was right around 3.4 points [1]
Anyone who suggested that there was a clear favorite was lying about what the polls said. That's not a failing of the polls, its a failing of the media reporting on the polls. Sure, there were some particular, individual outliers. The Anne Seltzer poll comes to mind. But, credit where it's due, Seltzer published an outlier poll, because that was the outcome of the poll based on then methodology she had been using for a long time. Like with scientists publishing null results, it's actually really important that such things are published and not hidden, but they are usually hidden.
Go talk to people in the real world, instead of reading articles written by fellow shut-ins, and realize that the narrative is FAR different for the average person.
Then plural of "anecdote" is not "data". And quite the opposite here, if you're out talking to people within your own social bubble, you're far more likely to get a warped view of reality. This is one of the reasons polling is so hard, getting a truly representative sample of the population is hard. It is also likely a reason polls keep underestimating Trump. People with low social trust seem to favor Trump, and those same people are very hard to poll. They don't often pick up the phone and often aren't willing to divulge their political choices to strangers on the phone. So ya, expecting the polls to "miss" by 3-5 points, underestimating Republicans isn't all that out of line.
My prediction is the Dems will pick up just barely enough seats to take back control of the House. Not a snowballs chance in hell of taking back the Senate.
This is funny, because this is very much an opinion which will have been informed by polling. It's also what most analysis are coming up with:
Articles like the one posted by the OP are just pure hopium. Dems may make some gains this year, but a rational analysis of the current polling data tells a bleak story. They might get the House, the Senate is basically out of reach.
The polls and prediction markets showed Trump ahead in 2024...
I can't talk to people because I'm not American, and after '24 I'm clear that my sources of information are biased and left-leaning.
Realistically, and with everything that's happened, do you really think the Republicans will hold out?
From the outside, it looks like significant chaos; either the Democrats are very stupid, or the Republicans have massive media outlets to manipulate people (and letting that happen brings us back to the stupidity of the Democrats)
either the Democrats are very stupid, or the Republicans have massive media outlets to manipulate people (and letting that happen brings us back to the stupidity of the Democrats)
Both of those things are true, but also many Democrats are not very motivated to change anything so long as they themselves continue to benefit financially from the status quo, even a fascist status quo. This is a comfortable career for them, with investment opportunities, not an existential battle on behalf of the people.
I have so little faith in my neighbors, I won't be surprised if they gain seats.
Little faith in my neighbors AND that the elections will be above board
Sad state of affairs but I agree.
This is the mentality to have through November, 2026.
Is it? There seems to be widespread agreement on that point, here on Lemmy, that expecting the worst of everyone is critical to motivate the Americans to go out and vote.
It’s a strong enough consensus, reinforced with absolute certainty over and over in our political communities, that I’ve been forced to ponder it myself many times. Because I also have an instinct that it’s quite possible to demotivate and even deactivate would-be voters by making them feel that theirs is a lone flame in the wind, or that the insurmountable forces of evil will make their efforts inconsequential.
As a counter example, here in New York, that wasn’t what brought people out to knock on doors and vote for the new progressive mayor. People participated because they had hope for change, or maybe just to be a part of a something new. They weren’t voting against Cuomo as much as they were voting for Mamdani, if that makes sense.
Are we confident that our all-in commitment to motivating people through fear of their neighbors’ inaction is a winning strategy?
People who vote for the Democratic party can get disfranchised easily, but the Republicans don't.
They will reliably vote Republican even if their party slits their throats, takes a piss on them, and kills their women.
This is the current conundrum.
MAGA specifically is a cult, they don’t follow any logic
Republicans have always been a cult. Look at how they've always deified Reagan
Which is ridiculous considering Reagan had no fucking clue what he was doing. He was a puppet President who had such severe Alzheimer's by the end all he could do is sit around and eat jelly beans while his wife and administration ran the show.
GOP President violates laws, attacks our allies, openly takes bribes, and is barely functional.
Voters say 'We must be rid of him.'
Dem President steers a steady, if unspectacular, center Left policy that slightly improves voters' lives.
Voters say 'He's weak! We must be rid of him!'
The DNC never seems to undo the damage the GOP does, while continuing some choice parts of their horrors.
It feels like they work as the arresting mechanism on a ratchet and the only way the country is allowed to move is towards fascism.
I'd be eager to see some candidate come into office and use these same techniques the GOP does to actually fix shit and improve people's lives in a meaningful way. The GOP are going to say that they're a radical leftist authoritarian regardless of their actions, might as well be one
This is largely because people like Biden are still in this old school camp of gentlemen’s agreements where you don’t undo what the previous person did because that would be going against voter will or something. It really only works if both parties are trying to move the country forward.
The DNC never seems to undo the damage the GOP does, while continuing some choice parts of their horrors.
100% this! I’ve been on my worthless DINO rep about what the plans are to FIX what has been done, not just STOP anything else from happening - crickets. So I also let her know I’m done with this “vote blue no matter who” shit and the only vote I’d be casting for her seat is if she loses to a primary opponent.
Try looking at some recent history.
Obama came in with both Houses, and barely got the Affordable Care Act passed.
If you want a strong Dem majority you have to fight harder.
The GOP will block anything it can.
And the Democrats will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, for totally unknown reasons.
The reason is they won't listen to voters who are willing to left perfect be the enemy of better.
That’s a huge issue with voters honestly. They will vote against the democratic nominee because of 1 issue but are ok with a radical far right racist fascist because…Israel?
“The president is a fuckup. He still has my complete support!” -Republicans.
If even half of the leopardsatemyface screenshots are real and not made up that'll be the case.
They're all along the lines of "Mr President I love everything youre doing and I'm glad I voted for you and everything is incredible but I cant afford to eat now and my gran died of totally preventable causes. Still love everything about you though"
Even if they won every single election the Dems will do nothing and wonder where their support went.
Because this happens every fucking time.
I certainly hope so, but I'm afraid the Democrats will fuck it up or Leon Hitler will manipulate the voting machines with a "minor" update.
Really? Because I predict that millions of Americans wont be voting Democrat or at all because of the utter incompetence of the Dems. Not to mention the immediate bending over for the GOP after winning 3(?) Elections, reopening the govt in exchange for a promise, when the right was in the worst position it has been in decades and just when they were really feeling the heat.
Plus, we all want the democrats to be the ones to make reasonable laws we can all get behind but they dont do that. Like the "high capacity" magazine bans. In a time where more leftists are arming themselves than ever before, nobody wants that. They keep warning of a fascist takeover while simultaneously disarming citizens. Or the fact they voted to fund the military to the tune of $1 trillion. Or the democrats that voted with Republicans against youth trans care. Or their response to most republican shenanigans, a strongly worded letter.
Democrats have been doing nothing but fumbling the easiest victories they could ever have over and over again. Idk how anyone can expect democrats to win anything with this old guard establishment demo still in power.
Say what you will about the GOP, and I hate what their doing as well. But at the end of the day they get their shit done. For better or worse, at least they dont just sit on their power. I wish I could say the same about the dems
The cowards could probably still save themselves if they did the right thing and removed him, but they won’t so they are complicit
Can't wait for nothing to happen again.
Unpopular seems to me to be quite an understatement. I can only report back from Germany: here, he is deeply despised by most people.
Since he will never actually be punished, I just hope he lives long enough with his wits about him to see himself reviled and stripped of any respect and power. I don't have a lot of room for hatred in my heart, but there is no awful thing that could possibly happen to him that I wouldn't celebrate. I hope he experiences pure agony before the end.
And there are people who've done far worse to me personally I don't feel that way about.
Don't forget the Millers and Vances and all the eager fascists working to create Trump's agenda. Plus the Heritage Foundation and the Project 2025 people and all the evangelicals. Only a fraction of what's happening comes from the pedophile rapist crook with dementia who stands at the front. Any justice has to include all the other agents of fascism too.
I have some hope that they will face justice. Trump never will. He just won't. Miller should be facing the rest of his life in prison. But he'll probably make sure Trump pardons him on the way out. Miller is probably a much worse human being than Trump. I would support giving him over to The Hague. Trump can't pardon that.
Any chance you can return the “depose the fascist” favor? You do kinda owe us one.
Unfortunately, in Germany we are also facing major problems with the resurgence of fascism. Here, it takes the form of the AfD these days, a right-wing extremist party that basically stands for the same inhumane ideology as MAGA: hatred, greed and blatant stupidity.
I attribute the popularity of these damn fascists primarily to the fact that Europe uses the same US social media platforms, which are controlled by the same billionaires. Another reason may be that Europe is also experiencing an economic downturn, and the AfD, like MAGA, promises a return to "the golden days," which is of course a blatant lie, especially since the AfD is a neoliberal party that, like MAGA, exclusively pursues policies that benefit the super-rich - yet somehow people here don't seem to see through this either.
So I'm afraid we can't help out, especially since the world today is a completely different place, if only because of nuclear weapons. Sorry :(
I'm afraid I phrased that incorrectly: In Germany, the US president is despised by the vast majority of rational-minded people, but unfortunately there are also many completely brainless, hateful people here who vote for a party that stands for exactly the same Nazi bullshit.
Somehow the Dems will shit the bed on this.
Even if they don't the two party system ensures that the Republicans will get back in power eventually and the party is not going to change so the likelihood is that you get someone just as bad as the current crop of grifters but more competent and less geriatric.
If there is one force you can always count on is democrats snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
The more I read about it, the less likely I believe it will occur.
LMAO, a mid-term tsunami. Sure, probably brought by Santa
"Dragged down by an unpopular president" makes it sound like he's not the leader of the Republican party, he's not fully in control, he's not giving orders all the way down. "Intentionally torpedoed by its leader and self-anointed king" might be more accurate. But I digress.
The American people won’t be fooled by polls again, right?
Right?!