This is a most excellent place for technology news and articles.
If I had to make a guess, I say it probably will. The convenience of AI is probably here to stay, but the craze of replacing everything with AI will go out the door.
AI will become exactly what it should have been in the first place: an assistant. Not your friend, not your doctor, not your therapist, not a replacement for artists/authors/programmers, and not inside every piece of tech post 2025. It has a place. That place is over-embellished right now, not to mention unsustainable.
It will definitely burst, and might take out some fairly large companies with it. Potentially even one or two tech companies that have been around for decades depending on how large it gets before that burst. One or two companies will end up with the IP all of them are "building" and it will fizzle into the background of daily use just like the previous assistants like Alexa, Cortana, etc. have.
Potentially even one or two tech companies that have been around for decades depending on how large it gets before that burst.
Please be Microsoft, please be Microsoft, please be Microsoft.
Itll be ~~nvidia and~~ openai primarily, id have to imagine
It wont be Nvidia unless they play things incredibly badly, they're the only ones making actual profit by selling shovels in the goldrush.
Just a reminder that the term "AI" stands for a category of systems that contains a lot more than just LLMs.
Sir, this is the stock market.
People order with their feelings, not facts.
Main reason it can flourish as assistant in the first place is that Google search engine became shit
As an aside, you can tell how successful the rebranding of twitter as “x” has been, since even now more than 2 years after the rebranding news articles still have to add “formerly known as twitter” every time they mention it.
That dumbass throwing away the Twitter brand for a damn letter should be proof enough to anyone that he's a moron
It blew my mind when he announced it. Brand recognition is one of the most important things companies hope for, and Twitter was in it's own, very select brand recognition club at the top. Tweeting became part of everyday vernacular, in the same way that googling something became synonomous with searching online. It's a company's wet dream. No one says "gramming", "threading", "facebooking", etc. Maybe Snapchat has snapping, I'm out of the loop but even I've used tweeting/ed in every day conversations.
That recognition is the stupidest thing to just throw away, especially to replace it with something that can't replace it from a language perspective. Xing makes no sense in context.
But I also still say Facebook and Google instead of Meta and alphabet
Those are changes in parent company names though while the services Facebook and Google still exist. The rebrand of Twitter to X continuing to not stick for people is a much bigger failure on their part than Meta and Alphabet not entering the general zeitgeist.
Some guy spending a billion dollars on pretty much nothing makes me deeply annoyed. Tax billionaires.
He famously isn't rich. He manages the money of the rich, he himself is only well off. This isn't his money he's investing, it's the money of the people he works for. So there's obviously some market feeling that this is a good bet.
Burry similarly made a long-term $1 billion bet from 2005 onwards against the US mortgage market, anticipating its collapse. His fund rose a whopping 489 percent when the market did subsequently fall apart in 2008.
We may have to wait for another three years.
I looked into the article to find out how long a timeframe he is betting. Unfortunately, it does not say.
You'd think the timing should reflect the typical terms of loans and loan volumes - so that sounds plausible. When the default rate of those loans begins to creep up and become notable to investors, then people will get edgy.
I just hope it comes before our much loved and overpaid layers of incompetent management have destroyed all their manual production processes and replaced them with snake oil. If not a general economic downturn might start well before the ai bubble bursts.
The fact that he was even able to make that bet is incredible. How deluded do you have to be to think the AI bubble won't burst? Keeping it going will require in ever-increasing amounts of money to paper over the gaping chasms that keep cropping up, and eventually the amount of money necessary to keep it going will cease to be feasible. Then, after taking gullible investor for all of they've got, the whole thing will fall over in the world's most well deserved and predictable market crash.
The subprime mortgage collapse was inevitable only in hindsight, you had to have a good understanding of the market to see it in advance. To see the level of corruption and false promises that have to be made in order to make the mortgage bubble possible. But everyone can see the AI BS right out in the open, I'm not talking about the "how many Rs are in strawberry" questions either, I can sort of see why that's not really a fair question. I'm talking about the fact that every single business that has ever tried to replace its employees with AI, has always failed, and failed almost immediately. Even Amazon couldn't make it work.
I think the idea is that, whilst shorting, you get squeezed. The question is not 'if' but 'when' and if it takes too long and you're $1B deep you can lose your shirt
everyone can see the AI BS right out in the open
To me it is four things in particular:
In prior generations, any industry with such performance would be laughed clear out of the boardroom.
But because capitalism is desperately seeking a solution to what they perceive as a problem - how to obtain labour without having to pay said labour - AI is being adopted hand-over-fist.
After all, the underlying purpose of AI is to allow wealth to access skill while removing from the skilled the ability to access wealth.
inevitable only in hindsight
I'm not so sure. I'm still friends with a guy who told me emphatically "you dont understand what we did, we destroyed the global economy" and then explained the whole subprime mortgage scam to me, back in like 2007. Lots of downstream businesses, new home builders, paint and drywall companies, building materials stores, started folding several months before the official crash as well. I wasn't nearly as aware of things then, I was a grown adult but not yet 30 and with little formal education, but there were definitely huge flashing signs. Only the media, based 100% on the words of the banks and insurance companies, thought that a crash was undetectable.
I'm not sure quite what it would look like yet, but I'm willing to bet if you look where these data centers are being built, when the cash runs out to keep the whole scam afloat, these big companies will stop paying their bills. The smaller companies providing services and supplies will run out of money before the huge mega corpos start showing signs, so that is one of the metrics I'm watching closely. I just happen to live in the shadow of these data centers so I'll be pretty close to it, that is if I'm right.
Its not a question of "if" but "when."
and whether he has enough liquidity to maintain his margin during absolutely insane market distortions by hedge funds, big banks, and the government.
Nvidia down ~8% this week, Palantir down ~10%
Maybe the needle really is shifting.
Maybe, but he's also been super wrong a bunch of times on his skitzo twitter account so grains of salt and all that. Not saying the guy isn't smart, clearly called one of the biggest systemic crisis of our times, but he struck gold once and struck out a bunch more often.
I just phoned a business today that ended up with an "AI receptionist" when they didn't answer the phone.
They wanted to take my name down, asked who I was leaving a message for, and then recorded the message...
My god what a painful process that was. It was absolutely useless. Firstly it got my name wrong, and then the name of the person I was leaving the message for wrong. No "Janet" my name is not Don it's John, and no I'm not leaving a message for Kim Its for Kam. And then it needs to repeat your entire message back to you in order to make sure it didn't fuck it up which amazingly the message was probably 95% okay but it was a giant waste of my time when a FUCKIN VOICEMAIL WOULD HAVE SUFFICED
Had an issue with Comcast today. They forced me to use their Xfinity app, but what I needed to do wasn't an apparent option within the app. The only option I saw was a support chatbot. The chatbot listed a link to the option I was looking for. The link opened a webview within the Xfinity app, in which there was a link to download the Xfinity app.
Unnecessary Apps and chat bots. Two of my least favorite things referring me back and forth, forever, in an endless loop.
Burry also lost money since 2008 making shorts like Tesla. The Big Shart.
Looks like very mixed returns. Which is what you'd expect from a strategy of betting on areas that are significantly overvalued.
The market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent
I've got a problem with articles like this: "The guy who got it right once is betting a second time he's going to get it right". and then the article continues: "Even though he's got it wrong a bunch of times since, he got it right that one time... So this has gotta be his second time!!"
Good
This is in a category I'd like to call hopebait. People so badly wish things they feel are bad simply stopped themselves, that they'll upvote anything that appears to confirm this.
In this instance, there is nothing of substance in this article to suggest the end of anything is anywhere near in sight.
One guy, who makes bets constantly, made another bet.
Seriously the stock market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
People are idiots.
Is there a consensus there's an AI bubble? Sure?
Can anyone predict what will happen? LOfuckingL
Well yeah. Sam Altman just came out and basically said he needs a few trillion dollars and government backed loans. This shit is going to be BAD.
My money is on the American bubble popping. China would do just fine. As to Europe's? Probably not developed enough to seriously impact them, but probably able to fill America's void once the bubble action has died down. America is pretty fucked in general, so it isn't so much AI in particular, but rather a ghost economy.
Something based on imaginary stocks, grift, de-industrialization, ghost jobs and falsified labor statistics, likely mixed with a debased dollar, just doesn't bode well.
The simple fact that somebody was able even to bet a billion is insanity that should never be possible to begin with.
Nobody should have a billion dollars, let alone have so much that you can just safely bet a billion dollars
Them he's betting.yhst the economy will crash, basically, and we're okay with that shit.
All of this should be illegal as fuck, and this guy belongs in a jail cell
I may be wrong but i thought this guy was not at all a respected investor and only made 1 good trade. So his opinion is kinda worthless.
TBF, an investor could make a thousand good investments and I'd still regard their opinion as worthless (here's lookin' at you, Buffet.) Being "good" at figuring out which stocks and companies you can exploit the most from the actually productive economy doesn't make you smart or in anyway good.
Market is so fake and manipulated that I no longer have any interest in investing in it. Like always for decades now it is a transfer to the wealthy system.
My plan is to stay invested until dividends hit in December, and then I'm going to evaluate moving my investments into a money market or bonds. Amazon's numbers show that consumers are still buying, and my assumption is that consumer spending will hold off the pop for now.
I 100% expect a massive crash, and when it's just seven companies propping up an entire economy, the pop is going to be very bad. I'd rather lose a little value in the short term than have my portfolio drop to a calamitous degree and have to wait 5-10 years for it to recover.
*not a FA, just my personal plan
Has anyone else noticed the recent resurgence of mechanical turk jobs? It's all AI training work. Before the work was doing tasks directly. Now they have people training tailored AI models.
In other words the tech bros have found get another way to shoehorn themselves in as a middle man. Instead of having workers do the work itself. Now the work is delegated to AI. Which is trained to do the task by humans.
At first it said the LLM era was the end of mechanical turk work. It's going in a circle back to mechanical turks again.
I do think there is an AI bubble, but "guy who bets against things, bets against the latest thing"
