If Kamala does become the new nominee, I wonder how hard Trump will fight to avoid debating her.
Shit would be funny as hell to watch. Trump would be balling by the end.
this post was submitted on 21 Jul 2024
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Even having had time to prepare for this, and knowing it was essentially inevitable, this feels heavy in a way that I'm not sure how to express yet.
He needs to spend every free minute between now and his last day seating judges. Fuck blue slips. Appoint until there’s not a vacancy to be found.
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Yeah, the Dems better not fuck up this hard pivot!
It doesn’t have to be hard. Harris should go to the top of the ticket, and the campaign apparatus stays the same.
Have her, a former prosecutor, debate Trump and treat that shit like a cross examination.
And make Sanders the VP to make me excited.
Sanders is too old. God love him, but it would not inspire confidence. If we're going for a prominent progressive on the ticket, we'd have to go AOC.
More likely though, Harris will pick someone who is an old white moderate male, though, unfortunately.
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That is a ticket I would be happy to vote for
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Knowing the Democrats, they'll probably run an even older ticket somehow lol.
Jimmy Carter/Bernie Sanders 2024!
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I'm sure this was a really hard decision, but it shows courage and strength that Biden put his own ego aside for the good of the country...
...is what I would have said if he'd done this two weeks ago. Now, I'm just glad he was able to take off his narcissism glasses long enough to see how badly he was going to lose, and I hope his prolonged tantrum hasn't damaged Harris' chances too badly.
I wouldn't say this is bad timing in hindsight.
- The news media moves on from Trump's pity party, the debate, the President Putin and Vice President Trump gaffes.
- Facing COVID, Biden has a legitimate reason to drop out without saying that he is weak to pressure
- Trump is now the old and doddering candidate, turning much of the past brainwashing of Republican media on its head.
- Trump will get bigly mad since the attention's going to be off of him. Potential for a stupid outburst.
- The media will be hyperfocused on what's to come from the Dem campaign, an excellent opportunity to highlight Biden's achievements and articulate a bright future for the party and country.
- The pre-emptive smears from Republicans are on their way, but the Dems are a moving target until they officially announce the ticket.
It relies on Democrats getting the message right though they'd faltered before. They get one more chance to fix it in this soft reset.
Yeah, but none of these benefits are better than ending the uncertainty 2 weeks ago; at that point, the polling was clearly showing Biden was dropping in key swing states, and the party was starting to go into full panic mode, but he still let them twist in the win while he made up his mind. Hell, even if he made the announcement during the convention, he could have stolen some of Trump's publicity this week and forced a whole lot if RNC speakers to rewrite their speeches. Instead, he left the party in chaos for a month, then gave Trump a victory lap convention before finally stepping aside.
There were a lot of rumors and speculation about this possibility last week that I think did take a lot of attention away from the Republican convention.
True, but rumors and speculation make people think that the party is in chaos. Announcements and press conferences would have made it seem like the Democrats were mobilizing. I've heard a couple of people say that it was smart to do this right after the convention to blunt any polling bump Trump might get, but I think the whole RNC just came across like a victory lap, and now it looks like it culminated in Joe Biden's surrender.
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So, now we get to see how many “blue no matter who”’s actually meant it.
Remember folks, it applies to anyone who might be the candidate.
That over…. Harris/AOC or Harris Whitmer !!
Kamala all the way! It won't be AOC or Whitmer though. Most likely Kelly or Newsom. AOC is the future, though.
Newsome cannot and will not be the VP. Harris is also from California, which would cause issues in the electoral college. Electors cannot cast both the Presidential and vice-presidential ballot for someone from the same state as themselves. Because both Harris and Newsome are form California, it could cause issues, and they might not get the electoral votes from California.
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If the blue pick is a broken toaster oven, I'm still voting for it rather than tump
I'd vote for a battered cardboad cutout of Reagan over Trump. Hell. I'd vote for a cardboard cut out of trump over trump.
(cardboard cut outs can't talk.)
I think AOC isn't old enough to be VP. I don't say that as a matter of opinion. I think you have to be at least 40
Edit: it's actually 35, but AOC is 34 so I was partially correct
However I think the relevant language is:
No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.
So maybe it's okay for VP
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I'd forgotten what hope felt like.
Assuming the new candidate(probably Harris) avoid any major disasters as does Trump, we’ll be returning to the May 2024 status quo of things. Harris is more popular than post-debate Biden, was slightly behind pre-debate Biden, and will probably need a month to get back there(winning the nomination and undoing all the damage from 4 weeks of infighting.)
On the plus side, that’ll drop the hemorrhaging, New Mexico and New Jersey safe, Virginia and Minnesota probably safe. On the downside at this point Georgia and North Carolina are lost, there just isn’t time and the Republicans spent 4 years pouring resources into them.
This is back to the main 5. Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The important factor is that if they lose Pennsylvania, they lose. They can win the other 4 here, but it’s 268-270. Unless they snag something extra like Georgia(unlikely in this scenario), that’s it.
If they win Pennsylvania, they need at least two others in ideal circumstances(Michigan needs to be one of the two and Nevada can’t be one of the two, second one would have to be Wisconsin or Arizona), 3 others in unideal circumstances if Michigan isn’t there and they get Nevada. I should also note several of these scenarios are razor thin (270-268 with Pensylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and 271-267 with Arizona instead) and thus vulnerable to faithless electors. Or worse, if Maine’s statewide went red(which is more likely than Georgia going blue or Virginia going red at this point) the former would be a win and the latter would be a tie. In the tie scenario the House picks the president(so Trump) and the Senate picks the Vice President(so Vance would be ousted) which would be an absolute nightmare and gambling on Trump dying in that situation isn’t worth it.
I note this because even in the base line May scenario Pennsylvania was one of the worse polling one for democrats(Arizona and Wisconsin were the blue edging ones), and Pennsylvania is not a state where the stars are aligning. It was Biden’s home state, Scranton boy, him being off the ticket hurts things there probably more than they help. AND, while it’s true nationwide the post-shooting bump for Trump was relatively minor, Pennsylvania is where the shooting happened and has gotten the largest bump in the polls since, 3 or 4 points. Biden leaving demotivates the base there harder than anywhere else in the county and the Trump shooting re-motivated the base there harder than most.
My call? If they don’t pick Shapiro or Whitmer, it’s over 100%, and even with it’s iffy. Pennsylvania is perhaps the one state where any replacement is going to do worse than Biden even post-debate, and the one state the Trump shooting caused a notable bump. What are the odds it’s also the single most crucial state in this election?
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