Just in case anyone is using 338 for info:
- the higher voter turnout so far indicates this type of model will be less accurate this election.
- the riding numbers are from provincial polling, there is no per riding polling incorporated. With increased turnout, I expect these to be less accurate.
- the model works by rating pollsters based on how well the predict past elections. That’s why increased turnout means things may swing from their forecast.
All that adds up to the potential for huge swings in votes, swings that can go either direction.
Things to watch for:
- Gen Z men’s rightward swing. Expect high turnout from this group for the Conservatives. They consume a lot of right wing media and have been struggling with tough economic conditions, so will be motivated.
- Boomer influence is waning — this is the first election they are not the largest demographic.
- Gen X are actually wealthier than boomers and are the only demographic that en masse had better economic outlooks since COVID. I don’t know if they’re going to stay the coarse with LPC or vote CPC for the tax cuts, traditionally more income swings right, especially with how Pollievre wants to change housing taxes
- Older women and Quebec are very anti-Pollievre, this might end up with a suppressed vote or a very strong vote LPC.
- Rural areas I think will swing more conservative than ever, and this might be where the forecasts swing. E.g. rural Ontario may not be as safe as thought.
TLDR be prepared for surprises today.
