*Before Trump was elected. I think a Trudeau led Liberal party would have had a much weaker showing, but not as weak as the polling referenced here would suggest. The Conservative falloff was mostly a result of the fallout from the new (at the time) Trump administration and the common understanding that the Conservative party is the pro-US party. The Liberals were able to seize the mantle of Canadian nationalism in the face of that disaster. In another world where Trump was not president but Carney still takes over the Liberals, I don't think we see nearly the same swing. In a world where Trump is president but the Liberals stick with Trudeau, I think the most likely outcome would have been either a weak Con minority or a very weak Liberal minority.

[–] Omgpwnies@lemmy.world 3 points 3 days ago (1 children)

I don't think Trudeau could have whipped up the level of support that Carney did, he lost the "incumbent advantage" long before Trump part dookie. Liberal minority would have been likely out of reach, it would have been a decision between CPC minority or majority. Trudeau was deeply disliked by the time he stepped down, and the polls were continuing to get worse for Trudeau, and as a knock-on, LPC in general.

Carney was able to take advantage of the "new guy effect", and some easy policy changes to attract fence-sitters. I won't disagree that PP said/did some significant foot-gunning, but I don't think that would have been enough to get the LPC out of the Trudeau slump.

[–] grte@lemmy.ca 1 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

I don’t think Trudeau could have whipped up the level of support that Carney did,

Why not? We were being directly attacked economically and having our sovereignty threatened. A dog could have whipped up plenty of support in that context as long as it was painting itself as a nationalist dog. You are way, way overestimating the effect Carney had on the election and vastly underestimating the effect Trump had, in my opinion.