ziltoid101

Here's a random guy's overview of what to pay attention to for the upcoming federal election, looking at the WA seats for the House Of Representatives. I'd love to hear everyone's thoughts and insights about these seats.

KEY SEATS

BULLWINKEL: A new seat introduced for this election, covering the extreme eastern suburbs (think High Wycombe) and the communities in the hills out to Northam and York. Based on the results from polling centres within this boundary in the previous election, ABC predicts it's currently "held" by Labor with a margin of 3.3% (largely supported by a strong Labor vote in the suburbs east of Midland). Recent YouGov polling basically shows it as a coin toss between Labor and Liberal. A recurring theme in some of these seats will be the success of the Keep The Sheep campaign, and to what extent it galvanises more rural areas to vote against Labor. For example, a drop in the Labor vote in Northam (which had ~52% 2CP in favour of Labor in 2022) could see the seat 'swing' to the Liberals. The former state opposition leader Mia Davies is also running in this seat for the Nationals as a relatively high-profile candidate, and I imagine most of her votes will preference Liberals also. For these reasons I think the Liberals have the slight edge in Bullwinkel, but it's still anyone's game.

CANNING: This seat incorporates Mandurah and the surrounding region. This includes some rural-ish areas, so again the Keep The Sheep campaign may have some influence (I'm really not sure if it will prove to be effective for them, or a complete flop!). Liberals won with a 3.6% margin in 2022, but this year's redistribution (now cutting ever so slightly into Labor's Rockingham stronghold) has narrowed the predicted margin to a mere 1.2%. As a ballpark, ThePollBludger is currently showing a statewide 2.2% swing towards Labor since 2022 within WA - obviously different areas will vote differently, but this seat is definitely within Labor's reach now. However, YouGov polling is still showing Liberals maintaining their slight lead, so I'd only expect this seat to flip to Labor if we see a big Labor win on Saturday.

CURTIN: This seat basically covers the Golden Triangle, and is historically one of the safest Liberal seats - but is no more, being currently held by independent Kate Chaney with a slim margin of 1.3%. Liberals have thrown a lot of funding into trying to get this seat back, and it feels like Chaney has been campaigning a bit less actively than in 2022. There's a risk Chaney has alienated some of her voterbase by backflipping on live export (she was initially in support of the ban, but ended up voting against the ban). However, despite ultimately voting against the ban, the Keep The Sheep campaign still seems to be campaigning against her, which seems like the worst outcome for Chaney. But there's still hope for her - incumbent independents generally tend to be more resistant to swings than the major parties, and both YouGov and RedBridge polling predict Chaney to hold her slim margin.

MOORE: This seat includes Joondalup and the nearby coastal suburbs from Trigg to Currambine. Despite being fairly safely held onto by the Liberal party since 1990, the 2022 election saw them only barely hold onto this seat, with a margin of just 0.9%. Again, if ThePollBludger's 2.2% state swing towards Labor holds up, Moore could be theirs for the taking. It gets even more complicated for the Liberals - the previously sitting Liberal MP Ian Goodenough lost preselection, but is still running for the seat (now as an independent), which will pull a chunk of the primary votes away from the Liberal party. I'd expect most of Goodenough's preferences to flow to the Liberal party anyway, but in such a marginal seat it could have a real impact on the outcome! However, current YouGov polling still shows Libs holding onto the majority - this one will go down to the wire.

TANGNEY: This seat covers the area to the south of the Swan and Canning Rivers, from Bicton to Canning Vale. Similar to Moore, it's been held comfortably by the Liberals for most of the past 40 years, but a huge 13.9% swing in 2022 saw Labor claim this seat with a narrow margin of 2.8%. Both parties are throwing everything they have at this seat - the streets are absolutely littered with corflutes. Labor are probably the favourites here; statewide polling would suggest that a 2.8% swing away from Labor is unlikely, and both YouGov and RedBridge polling both predict Labor to hold on.

LESS INTERESTING SEATS

• Brand: Labor stronghold.
• Burt: Labor stronghold.
• Cowan: Safe for Labor.
• Durack: Fairly safe for Liberal, will be a good barometer for the Keep The Sheep campaign.
• Forrest: Liberal probably the favourites, but could end up being one to watch. Liberals currently hold by 4.2%, but their sitting MP is retiring and they now face opposition from a new independent Sue Chapman, who has a chance to make a real splash.
• Fremantle: Labor stronghold. Worth watching the Greens performance here; this is definitely a seat they have their eye on in the future and they're a smokey to make the 2CP count. They're still a good while off genuinely contesting for the seat though.
• Hasluck: Safe for Labor, especially after significant redistribution of the boundaries.
• O'Connor: Safe for Liberal, Nationals might make the 2CP.
• Pearce: Fairly safe for Labor, who received a huge 14% swing in 2022 following a big resdistribution of boundaries.
• Perth: Labor stronghold. Greens best chance of making the 2CP should the Liberal vote collapse further.
• Swan: Safe for Labor.

I think the big stories to look out for will be if the Keep The Sheep campaign hurts Labor much, if we see Labor grow or shrink their margins, if the Liberals can recover any of their 'strongholds', and if the teals are still in fashion. Curious to hear anyone else's thoughts or insights!

Grumpy, dumpy, and gorgeous! I'm so lucky to have these nearby. They spend most of their lives underground but when it rains in October-November you can hear them call as they start to emerge.

First of all, see what candidates are on the ballot for your electorate - most electorates only have about half a dozen, so please do your own research and make up your minds.

That said, I've spent a while trawling through the various party websites, so I thought I may as well share a brief overview to help you avoid the 'cookers' if you so wish! I'll try not to be too biased but to be fair, some of these parties/independents are hilarious.

Legislative assembly (your electorate may have some independents too):

• Animal Justice Party: What it says on the tin, their policy mostly resolves around reducing animal suffering. Aside from being understandably preachy, they have some light but sensible policy around housing, transport, corruption, and health.

• Australian Christians: I'm shocked at how openly homophobic, transphobic, and misogynistic their website is. But yeah, pretty horrifying overall, their sole environmental policy is to "wisely steward the environment God has given us". Also want heavy regulation of the internet (i.e. to ban porn).

• Legalise Cannabis Party WA: It's in the name, they're a one issue party that want to legalise cannabis. Worth mentioning that they are no longer affiliated with Sophia Moermond.

• Liberal Party Western Australia: Well, you probably know about them even though they're a minor party for now. They haven't actually released much state-level policy to the public as far as I can tell, which is super weird before an election. Worth noting that the candidate for Central Wheatbelt refused to unfollow a white supremacist, and one of their flagship candidates is a TV show presenter known for getting on the bags in Perth nightclubs in the 2000s.

• Libertarian Party: Guns, crypto, cookers. Pretty woeful housing/environment policy, plus their website is openly transphobic and has kinda racist undertones. Doesn't really have much in the way of state-level policy, but calls to "abolish the federal department of education". I guess if you like what Musk is doing to the US, this is the party for you...?

• Pauline Hanson's One Nation: Pretty openly racist and transphobic, big on guns and conspiracy rhetoric. I was kinda surprised to see that they're big supporters of social housing and increasing hospital funding, but yeah, probably doesn't make up for the rest of their policy.

• Shooters, Fishers and Farmers: They don't use an oxford comma in their name, but aside from that they're true to their name - they really like guns, fishing, and agriculture. Very light on any environmental, social, economic, or housing policy.

• Stop pedophiles! Protect kiddies!: Formerly the Democratic Labour Party. A bit of a loose unit of a party, but generally pretty anti-environmentalist, anti-drugs, anti-vax, anti-abortion. Not much in the way of relevant state-based policy such as housing, but they support high speed rail between the capital cities.

• Sustainable Australia Party - Anti-Corruption: Their policy is remarkably similar to the Greens, generally supporting science-based practice and pretty leftist policy. Their main difference with the Greens is (a) being less focused on social policy, and (b) supporting reduced immigration. They seem to be pretty anti-immigration rather than anti-immigrant though, which is a pretty important distinction. I haven't gotten any problematic undertones from their website but curious to know what other people reckon.

• The Greens (WA) Inc: The major leftist party; supports climate action, the arts, indigenous rights, social housing, diversified economy, education funding, more accessible public health, corruption reform, and transport infrastructure. Pretty aggressive advocates for socially progressive policies. Generally a big 'science' party, although they haven't shaken a few minor "hippy" stances that have been around since the inception of the party (mostly being anti-GMO, anti-nuclear). I will say they have, by far, the best website for communicating their policy at easy-to-read format but with a very high level of detail, and they really do have policies for everything.

• The Nationals WA: They target regional seats and their policy is all about the regions. That said, they're pretty unclear on what their policies are other than pretty vague notions of "looking out for the regions". They are very pro-gun though.

• WA Labor: The incumbents that have been in power since 2017 - not much needs to be said. They have pretty detailed policy but it's hidden in a 300-page PDF filled with jargon. IMO the big notable omission is any corruption or integrity policy.

Legislative council independents:

• Louise Kingston: Ex-nationals, left due to 'bullying'. Very little policy publicly available, but seems to be a kinda "protect your freedoms!!!" kinda vibe.

• Sophia Moermond: Ex-Legalise Cannabis, left due to her disdain for offshore wind power. Seems to be running a campaign mostly based around anti-vax rhetoric, although still supports drug reform and has a few sensible policies about housing and education.

• Wilson Tucker: Ex-Daylight Savings, and currently holds a seat with only 98 votes despite living in the US at the time of the last election! Despite being an 'accidental politician', I'm actually kinda sold on this guy, has pretty solid environmental, economic, and social policy. Also has a big focus on the housing crisis and getting mining money out of state government. It'd be pretty hilarious if this guy got voted in again.

• Aussie Trump: The name tells you all you need to know. Was once involved with Labor, then joined One Nation but got kicked out for 'being unprofessional'. Doesn't really seem to be have any policy as far as I can tell, but is pretty vocally anti-vax and has a violence restraining order. Delightful.

• Christiane Smith: Pretty vague about her policy but it seems to have fairly conservative/christian undertones. She's big on agriculture and "cutting red tape".

• Adrian McRae: God there are some characters here. This is the Putin guy. Used to be involved with the 'Great Australian Party', and is yet another anti-vax candidate without much clear policy.

This wasn't meant to be too serious. Feel free to let me know if I'm wrong about anything, not going to engage with any cookers though (Lemmy seems to be a pretty down-to-earth place however!)

They get their name because their call sounds like a banjo! A commonly heard, but not often seen frog native to Southwest Australia. They spend a lot of their lives burrowed underground or under leaf litter.

Maybe not his proggiest album but I'm still really enjoying PowerNerd and this is the highlight for me. It feels like the most lyrically direct album Devin has made in a good 20 years or more.

Looking perpetually angry 😠

Aka Bleating Froglets

Now that we've had some time to digest Flight b741, curious to see how it ranks for everyone!

Of course it varies a bit day to day, but I'll have a go... honestly I really like them all, bar the bottom two!

• I'm In Your Mind Fuzz
• Polygondwanaland
• Nonagon Infinity
• Ice, Death, Planets, Lungs, Mushrooms, and Lava
• Butterfly 3000
• Omnium Gatherum
• Petrodragonic Apocalypse
• Changes
• Fishing For Fishies
• Murder of the Universe
• Flying Microtonal Banana
• Quarters!
• Float Along ~ Fill Your Lungs
• Infest The Rats' Nest
• K.G.
• Flight b741
• L.W.
• Gumboot Soup
• Sketches of Brunswick East
• Laminated Denim
• The Silver Cord
• Paper Mache Dream Balloon
• Oddments
• Made In Timeland
• 12 Bar Bruise
• Eyes Like The Sky