sj_zero

joined 8 months ago
[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 day ago

Whoever won the election everyone should have been positioned as if something catastrophic would happen. Figures such as Jamie Dimon have been sounding alarm bells for a while now, and Berkshire Hathaway had been selling off securities at an unprecedented rate, having more cash in the bank than ever before.

Most indexes are double what they were in 2019. Does anyone seriously think businesses are twice as healthy as they were pre-pandemic?

Obviously Trump implementing global tariffs was the match that set the field on fire, but it is burning because it's filled with dead dry grass.

We've already seen something similar during a Trump presidency: in 2018, Trump implemented high tariffs on China amount many other things and it led the markets down 20% for the year, but the year after that saw markets rise nearly 30%. Now that's not going to happen this time because that was the largest stock market rise in history, but it shows that volatility in the short term doesn't mean low growth in the long term.

So two truths that contradict each other are about the effect of a market crash. On one hand, a shrinking stock market is generally good for inequality. The rent collectors in the stock market are affected more by a stock market drop than people who sell their labor. On the other hand, people who aligned themselves properly probably haven't seen a huge loss in wealth over this -- The Federal Reserve has given us a once in a lifetime opportunity to just park money at the fed and get 5-6% returns with absolutely 0 risk because the fed is the money printer, so if you want to sit out a fairly high risk moment in the market, you're still able to roughly match or beat inflation. Anyone holding such assets when things hit bottom can become immediately liquid and pick up some bargains.

As for why Trump set the field on fire, it should be obvious: he's a mercantilist who thinks America can't succeed without having a current account surplus. In the short term he's totally wrong about that, but in the longer term he's correct, and the increasing overwhelming debt both the American state and the American people find themselves in are evidence of that. You can't keep borrowing money to buy stuff from the third world forever.

The left and the right both are of two minds on the outcomes of merchantilism. On one hand, the left has become pretty anti-borders and pro-free trade, and the business right obviously wants a nice calm environment where they can export their businesses to low cost jurisdictions. On the other hand, they recognize the potential exploitation from rich countries outsourcing work to other countries including not paying workers domestic rates despite domestic profits and avoiding things like environmental regulations by jurisdiction shopping, and the populist right obviously wants the jobs to be in the country because it isn't some 1950s distant memory that America used to have lots of factories.

Agree or disagree with his mercantilist attitude (and most establishment economists would consider it outdated and wrong), he's acting more like a Chinese emperor than an American president -- instead of thinking in terms of quarters or even terms, he's positioning the US over decades. A drop in the short term probably isn't that important through that view, because it's looking at a longer term future.

Consider this parallel. JC Penney is considered a textbook failure for something they did: They stopped lying about "sales" that were always going on and just focused on low prices every day. When they did that, business dropped massively, and quickly they switched back. That was considered evidence that companies shouldn't change strategies like that -- but the rest of the story is that JC Penney went bankrupt after changing back to their own business model. Changing strategies like that was going to hurt in the short term, but low prices every day is how companies much bigger and more successful operate so if they stuck with it they may have survived. Instead they returned to business as usual and had short term success at the expense of long term success.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 6 days ago (3 children)

"A Connecticut Yankee in king Arthurs court" by Mark Twain is a true isekai.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Yes, one thing people are ignoring in terms of the political stuff is that Tesla is just plain overwhelmingly overvalued. It still has a greater market cap than most other car companies combined, but it's a barely profitable fairly low volume manufacturer. It has just a couple models, and other manufacturers have just one model of many which sell as many and then they also have entire business lines Tesla doesn't. Even Tesla's core auto business is only "profitable" due to government incentives such as green credits, and it isn't obvious they're guaranteed to continue.

I saw a video this week suggesting that stocks have 2 modes: "voting machine" and "weighing machine", and while Tesla has been winning the irrational "voting machine" game for a long time, it's probable the game will change at some point and it'll mean a huge reduction in market cap because the company isn't sanely valued.

Unlike a lot of people who flipped because the media told them to (or because they like or don't like his current politics), I've been telling the same story for years, because it was true, is true, and likely will continue to be true in the near future.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 week ago

A perfectly modernist take.

The problem is that modernism is wrong. The universe cannot be explained through that outdated mode of thinking, it just leads to totalitarianism and human suffering.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 week ago

That is probably the coolest thing I've read today. Thanks for posting it.

I sort of wondered how they did that, and it makes sense from that point of view -- the mouse could do both. Also explains why those adapters probably wouldn't work on other mice today.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 week ago

"Remember Secret Level, that Amazon show that came out last December? I wouldn't blame you if you already forgot about it"

Imagine assuming people are still watching streaming services.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 week ago (4 children)

I can absolutely understand why he'd say that.

It's a tough thing, complex. Human beings can be (creative) hacks too, copying something without any soul. But humans only have two hands and need to sleep and eat. An AI just needs a power supply and an Internet connection.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Not saying nothing, but there's always luanti and voxelibre.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 2 months ago

I'd argue the opposite.

Canada's Liberals are bullies. Massive bullies. They bully their own MPs and ministers, they bully their own people, and when they felt like they could get away with it they bullied the US president. And they spent 10 years spitting on the retarded kid in charge of the United States, And now they're shocked that the retarded kid is fighting back.

We'd be in a totally different scenario if we had a leader like Chretien in charge, he dealt with the bully George W. Bush by being wily and clever, not by trying to out-bully the bully. But that's not how der fuhrer Trudeau functions. He only has one mode, and it doesn't work when he's not the most powerful person in the room. His little toadies only know the same language by the way. Freeland is claiming she should be the next party leader because Trump is afraid of her. No, he isn't. He just doesn't like you because you're a jerk.

Trump isn't like a native justice minister, Trudeau can't just kick him out of the party for not doing as he's told. He can't tell Trump to sit down and shut up like he did his first secretary. He can't demote Trump like he did to Freeland when she didn't go along with his vote buying scheme late last year. When he's not able to do that, the pathetic nature of his one note bullying becomes clear.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 2 months ago

Looks like a hard drive to me. All my hard drives used to look like that except with a black faceplate.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/133801771582

[–] [email protected] 10 points 2 months ago

Nextcloud notes is just my life now.

 

https://invidious.fbxl.net/watch?v=oK1UgqHz7_U

A relevant passage from The Graysonian Ethic: "In a lot of ways you do not realize, the human race is entirely defined by our biology. Many of your deepest-rooted fears and ambitions are written into your blood, in a library that was passed down by millions of generations of successful creatures going all the way back to the single celled organisms that first spawned within the primordial ooze."

 

https://lotide.fbxl.net/api/stable/posts/11405/href

This is a little project I worked on over the weekend once I realized that my Wii mini, which I previously didn't think could be very useful for me, could be set up with the homebrew channel using the bluebomb exploit.

I own a nes mini, snes mini, and playstation mini, and they're all neat toys, but the problem with all of them is that I can't really use them in my living room. The TV is mounted on the wall fairly high up, and I don't have a shelf or anything, and I don't feel like running 100 feet of USB cables all over the place just because I might want to play some super nintendo games once a year.

The Wii was a nice solution by itself. It's small, and you can plug a classic controller into the wiimote so you can play games wirelessly and tuck them into a basket for the 364 days you're not playing wii games.

The Wii mini is different from the Wii in that it's a much simpler device. It doesn't have an SD card slot, it doesn't have a wifi transciever, it can't use Ethernet at all in its unmodified form. Also, the device doesn't have a frontloading DVD drive like the wii, instead it has a top loading DVD drive like the original playstation, so you can't just simply bolt it to the wall with a piece of wood or strap or plastic like you could with a Wii, because you won't be able to open the DVD drive. Being able to run homebrew was the final straw that made the project viable and interesting.

My solution ended up being very simple: The sides of the wii mini are at an angle and come to a point. I measured the dimensions of that angle and created a wall mounted bracket, then printed 3 of them in PLA.

A standard Wii has many mounting brackets available since the Wii was the most popular game console of that generation, but the wii mini was a last gasp and so it isn't really popular and there aren't really options out there, so this is a perfect solution for home manufacturing.

I realized that the tolerances required to hold the wii mini using these was extremely tight, so I used a piece of lined paper to create a template by putting the Wii into its mounts sitting on the table, then I used a felt marker to mark drill holes. Even so, it wasn't as precise as I'd hoped, and I also had an issue with the anchors I used. I've used plastic screw in anchors on a few other projects and it wasn't a problem, but these anchors absolutely hated my living room wall, so that became way more complicated than I would have liked. It does work, but it's not perfect.

If I were to design something like this again, I would remove the requirement to perfectly mount the anchors by printing a piece of plastic holding the three pieces in the exact spot so I didn't need to mount them perfectly. I would probably try to make it a hangable holder so I could just put a couple hangers on the wall and hang the wii holder off of it rather than try to drill securely into the wall.

Regardless, it does work as you can see, and I'm happy enough with the results. My favorite prints are the ones that quietly become a permanent part of my life, and this is a great example of that. The Wii is being held behind my TV, hidden but accessible.

0
Tom Stanton (www.youtube.com)
 

This guy does a lot of neat stuff. I watched a few electric bike videos he did where he tried building e-bikes with various features.

 

The first thing I use is Windows 10 decrapifier.

To use this, open up Powershell ISE as an administrator, and paste the script into a new editor window, then run it. It will automatically remove all the garbage Windows 10 installs by default. It works pretty well with Windows 11 as well.

https://community.spiceworks.com/scripts/show/4378-windows-10-decrapifier-18xx-19xx-2xxx

Next, O&O Shutup10

This tool shuts down a lot of the different telemetry stuff to keep windows 10 your own. It also works with Windows 11.

https://www.oo-software.com/en/shutup10

Finally, I like to install OpenShell, a start menu replacement for Windows 10. Right now it doesn't easily work on Windows 11, I use Start11 on windows 11. Openshell doesn't just replace the start menu with a windows 7 style start menu, it reimplements search so the search works much better and doesn't rely on windows search service.

https://github.com/Open-Shell/Open-Shell-Menu

Here's a bonus tip that only applies to Windows 11: If you use the open source tool rufus to create your installation media, you can tell rufus to create installation media that bypasses all the new TPM requirements. I have a computer capable of running windows 11, but I don't want to give them access to my TPM, I don't want secure boot, I don't want any of this stuff. I want to run my computer the way I want to, and this install media allows that. You lose some minor features here and there.

https://rufus.ie/en/

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