n2burns

joined 2 years ago
[–] [email protected] 8 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

I think I count 20 people at the bus stop, so to be generous, I'm assuming 1.4 people per car, which would be ~14 cars. I count 17 cars on the road from the far right of the picture to the bus (including the car in the right turn lane, not counts the cars in the driveway, or that cute micro-car).

[–] [email protected] 3 points 7 hours ago

You can read about 338Canada's Methodology in their About Page.

In answer to your questions, some polls break down their results by region and very rarely (but sometimes) there is riding specific data. Poll Aggregators have to careful about these as they sometimes involve small sample sizes. For example, I think Philippe was talking about one in the last couple years that broke down their results by province, but PEI only had 42 responses (that's like 3884 Ontarians per capita, which is a good sample size) which is too small a sample to consider so he just aggregated the Atlantic provinces. Riding specific polls are also rarely useful due to small sample size, infrequent polling, and questions about their methodology.

The secret sauce of these poll aggregators is how they rate polling firms/methods and how they weigh ridings for past performance, shifting demographics, and current candidates. If you're curious for more, I like listening to Philippe and Éric Grenier talk about polling on The Numbers podcast.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 day ago (2 children)

That's a really good answer!

I just want to add the other thing about 538 & 338 Canada is that they take vote efficiency into account. A lot of people look at polls, see a percentage and take that as the person/party's chance of winning. However, given in both our systems that it's not a straight popularity contest, those percentages need to be given context. In the US, the Democrats vote is inefficient, because they get huge margins in states like New York and California. It doesn't matter whether the winner of that state gets one more vote than their opponent, or 3,194,482 (the difference in California), most states are winner-take-all. Similarly, Canadian electoral districts are winner-take-all, and the Conservative party runs up their vote in the prairies (often winning 60%+ in a riding). This means their vote is inefficient so even even if the polls are right and they get close to the same number of votes as the Liberals, they won't get anywhere near as many seats.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 day ago

Sure, but your previous comment said:

This was more money than the 2000 presidential campaign by either side

But that's not true if they're both 2000/2025 dollars. So at least now the dollars are apples-to-apples.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 day ago

It's also within the margin of error, so we'll have to wait and see if this is a trend, or just a blip due to the quirks of polling.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 day ago (2 children)

This isn't the judge's fault. They work within a system and can't force a prosecutor to pursue a case. What else do you expect them to do?

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago (2 children)

This was more money than the 2000 presidential campaign by either side

I don't disagree there's too much money in politics, but let's compare apples-to-apples. With inflation, $100M in 2025 would be ~$54M in 2000.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

This signals a departure from the Trudeau government’s approach, which saw a 40-per-cent increase in the number of public service employees between 2015-24

This is a little more nuances when you also note that the population increased by 15% from 2015 to 2024. Whether or not you think this population increase is a good idea (I personally do support it for full disclosure), fact show it was driven by immigration, and I think we can all agree new residents require more services that existing ones. Given these facts, did Canada require 40% more staff to keep the same level of service?

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 day ago (4 children)

That's not the cost of running the election, that's the parties spending on the election, correct? So those funds were never going to go into infrastructure. I definitely agree we overspend on politics for politics sake, but please don't conflate political party funds with government funds.

[–] [email protected] 23 points 1 day ago (3 children)

Well, the judge can order the arrest of those people. We shall soon find out whether law enforcement will actual follow those orders...

[–] [email protected] 16 points 1 day ago

It’s like when you sell a car, once the title is signed over and you get the money the deal is done.

No, if you want a car to be your analogy, it's more like a rental. The US is actively paying El Salvador to detain them. They can end that deal whenever they want.

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