Ask Lemmy

The giant American military base next to China falls.

Also Taiwan claims to be part of China. And America claims Taiwan is part of China.

The premise of your question is all wrong. It centers western control of Taiwan as a natural status quo, and so paints every challenge of that control as a provocation or threat.

Advocating for Taiwan’s sovereignty is not the same as advocating for Taiwan’s continued fealty to the west.

One argument against democracy in China is that it is incompatible with Chinese culture.

Looking at Taiwan having a very successful democracy with Chinese culture is problematic for the Chinese Communist Party for that reason.

China considers taiwan a part of its country. If china is able to capture and integrate taiwan into it then it will show that china has become a superpower. If china can capture taiwan then it will show USA and west that china is not a paper tiger.

Honestly, it's really mainly historical clout.

Failing to conquer Taiwan was seen as the one thing Mao failed to do, and a strong leader managing it could make a claim to have surpassed Mao as great leaders of China.

The PRC is a massive fan of historical determinism and narrative might. Reunification would be a massive win for the pride and honour of the leader who did it. It's also a big thing for the average PRC citizen, they don't want war - but have had a lifetime of propaganda about it and are (somewhat rightly) worried about US aggression.

Taiwan is a single point of failure for chip manufacturing in the world I don't think annexation would destroy all the chip fabs I think they would still exist and they would be Chinese

From China's geopolitical standpoint:

Taiwan lies between China and the Pacific Ocean.

Taiwan is part of the First Island Chain (which includes Japan, Taiwan, Philippines) — many of these are U.S.-aligned or host U.S. bases.

Control over Taiwan would:

Give China greater military and surveillance reach into the Pacific.

Potentially allow it to break out of U.S.-aligned containment.

Give it more control over critical sea lanes and access to deeper waters (vital for its navy).

One, it completes one of their long standing policy of "one China". They still view Taiwan as a rogue rebellion state to bring back into the fold, not an independent country to conquer.

Two, it would cripple a lot of the west's high end silicon industry. TSMC is the only one that can make the worlds most advanced nodes, as well as Taiwan holds chip packaging infrastructure that any other nodes require on to be useful.

To that end it is a geopolitical chip that China can use to pressure the west, but likely will never act upon until a real hot war breaks out.

In 100 years, long after the United States has broken into Baltic states, there will be a reunification movement and people will ask "why do they want to invade Texas?". There will be politicians who's whole political careers will be built on the promise they can make the United States one country again. Understand this and you will understand China and Taiwan.

You are approaching this from the perspective of a rational peaceful person from the west, where usually the economy is number one in everything.

Xi has achieved unrivaled rule over the party. He has successfully established a police state that ensures that any domestic dissent is immediately crushed with brutal efficiency. He has subjugated the provinces that dared to think about self rule and cultural differences, and is in the process of ethnic cleansing without any significant opposition or consequences. He has gained colonial influence all over Africa through economic means. He has taken over Hong Kong. He has significantly modernized and expanded the military, including nuclear weapons. He had made China into a global economic superpower, which other countries, including rivals, depend on for a significant amount of manufactured goods and resources.

So what is left for him? Surely he is not a man who can be content with what he has.

The obvious next step is to make China into a military superpower. For that you need to exert power abroad. What better place to begin with than that small island just off your coast that has been a challenge to Chinese supremacy for decades?

Of course, Taiwan is kind of protected by the US, the dominant superpower of the time. But they are struggling, looking weak. If China manages to take Taiwan, they will not only have removed that thorn in their side, they will also have punched the biggest, meanest kid on the block on the nose and gotten away with it.

china is a bit like Yugoslavia before the end: lots of different ethnicities being forced to be together. letting a country made up of Chinese people exist in parallel to china keeps a flame of hope alight for those 51 non-Han Chinese ethnicities that were forced to be part of continental china. and China has struggled immensely with multitudes of local kingdoms and warlords throughout its history so it is afraid as its people are very aware of this past through historical dramas

Lots of good points, but one aspect that people haven't mentioned yet is that Taiwan is part of the "first island chain"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_chain_strategy

If the PRC conquers Taiwan, then it makes it much harder for the west to blockade the PRC in future conflicts.

Though technically, it is much more important to control the strait of Malacca than Taiwan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malacca_dilemma

Even if taiwans technology manufacturing gets destroyed in the invasion, it's still major part of western world's component infrastructure. They can also just rebuild. China gaining control over that or even just denying it to west would make china internationally more powerful no matter how it goes.

Most likely that isnt the only reason they want taiwan, but i dont believe it isnt one of them.

Land and the sea surrounding Taiwan, which comes with resource that they can exploit, and controling people that they claim is theirs. It's the same reason why europe sail across the sea to colonize others land, and why US doesn't let Puerto Rico become independent. China never acknowledged that Taiwan is an independent country, they always believe that Taiwan is their territory. It's imperialism.

The gamble just doesn’t really seem worth it.

China is not invading Taiwan. However if it comes to a war with the US, then it really has to take out Taiwan. It is just too close to the mainland, allowing for easy bombing and missile attacks, while als being able to cut off shipping from the mainland. Obviously the US likes that a lot, as it makes war against the US much more costly for China.

At the same time leaders often make horrible decisions. Just look at the US invading Iraq and Afghanistan or Russia invading Ukraine. Clearly not good wars for the countries invading, but they still did it.

However, China has since grown significantly, and Taiwan no longer claims to be the government of mainland China, so that reason goes away.

The thing that we call "Taiwan" is an island, not a country, the country is "Republic of China" (ROC). We call it mostly Taiwan, because there is the People's Republic of China (PRC) which is the mainland China. So you still have 2 countries, next to each other, both claiming to have the name "China".

You claim the name, you claim the country.

Same thing they gained from invading Hong Kong, they think it belongs to them.

Or as one of my old friends told me while playing Final Fantasy 12; the only legitimate reason to wage war against another country - land.

Hong Kong is already part of the Chinese mainland and was already kinda part of China, but Taiwan is a geographically strategic location that puts both Koreas, the Philippines, & Japan in a tougher position. Even without war it would make trade and travel in the Pacific much harder.

What does China achieve

The typical bully's satisfaction.

Imo I think the biggest thing is it would be completing the revolution in the sense that the KMT fled to Taiwan and is a holdout, that would be a huge win for national pride and legitimacy for the government. The second biggest thing would be nothaving another country with an army so close to them that is "hostile" to their interests. And then after that there would be a lot of other benefits like absorbing their industry, economic zones, military bases, etc. They would much rather have the modern KMT party win an election and vote to become a part of China, than invade, which while very unlikely is not impossible by any means in the span of decades.