Photo: Shawn Thew/EPA/Bloomberg/Getty Images
In theory, the experts at the Elon Musk–helmed Department of Government Efficiency are reviewing federal-government operations and getting rid of “waste, fraud, and abuse,” along with any policies inconsistent with Donald Trump’s directives, in order to reduce federal budget deficits and public borrowing. By now, it’s clear there isn’t much actual “reviewing” going on. Instead, DOGE is following the Silicon Valley model of “moving fast and breaking things,” hoping to strip the bureaucracy down to the studs and then let Trump’s people figure out what’s next. DOGE is relying heavily on stealth and terror to put the fear of God, or of Musk, in nearly every federal employee or contractor, good, bad, brilliant, lazy, or indifferent. There’s no telling how much productive work for the American people is not being performed as the public sector reels from the chaos DOGE has deliberately induced.
So is all this disorder, distraction, and pain worth it? Musk’s own claims of likely DOGE “savings” have steadily dropped from his original (and hallucinatory) $2 trillion estimate to today’s $150 billion. But more important, is the bigger object of slowing the growth of federal spending being achieved? According to a new and damning report from The Wall Street Journal, the answer is an emphatic “no”:
Federal spending is higher since President Trump took office even as the Department of Government Efficiency slashes contracts, cuts jobs and ends diversity programs.
A Wall Street Journal analysis of daily financial statements issued by the Treasury Department found government spending since the inauguration is $154 billion more than in the same period in 2024 during the administration of former President Joe Biden.
That’s partially because one big chunk of federal spending, for interest due on existing debt, obviously can’t be cut. And other big chunks, including Social Security and Medicare benefits, have been placed off-limits to Musk for the time being and have automatic spending escalators built in. Defense spending, another big chunk, is an area in which Team Trump most definitely wants to spend more. But even where DOGE has been very active, the results are not impressive:
Federal salary payments are $2.8 billion higher than a year ago in part because of a Biden-approved 2% pay raise in January. Additionally, thousands of other employees who took buyout offers remain salaried through September.
There is a chance that the buyout offers actually increased salary costs this year, said Martha Gimbel, executive director and co-founder of the left-of-center Budget Lab at Yale. Some employees who had planned to retire or leave the federal government may have instead accepted a buyout and remained on payroll.
In a section of the report entitled “Small DOGE Wins,” the Journal has some revealing data on how DOGE does wring dollars from the deep state:
Spending by the Transportation Security Administration nearly flatlined for several weeks in February and March. Since Trump took office, the agency spent $22 million less in part by delaying spending on new uniforms, as well as curtailing travel and training costs, said Joe Shuker, a regional vice president for the American Federation of Government Employees TSA Council 100. In March, the Department of Homeland Security canceled the union contract that protected TSA airport security workers’ benefits.
A TSA spokesman said spending is also down because of a pause in paying invoices until a system for reviewing them is in place.
So DOGE disrupted the agency responsible for keeping air travel safe and efficient by (a) abrogating an existing employment contract and (b) not letting TSA pay its bills. That’s what, in practice, “a pause in paying invoices,” which is happening in a lot of other federal agencies too, really means. Uncle Sam is welching on contracts and stiffing creditors. What a great example of genius management! And with such impressive results!
The more we watch DOGE, the clearer it becomes that reduced federal spending and budget deficits aren’t the point (recall that the administration is demanding a $5 trillion increase in the debt limit to accommodate its tax-cut agenda). The object of all this chaos and cruelty is political and cultural, not economic or budgetary. It is to turn the federal government into a terrorized instrument of Trump’s will with salaries and fat federal contracts being freed up to reward MAGA loyalists, who in turn have the opportunity to enjoy the torment and ruination of their presumed enemies in the public sector. Forget about “savings.” As Adam Serwer once said about Trump’s immigration policies, “The cruelty is the point.”