science

The global power that hasn’t participated in numerous atrocities does not exist.

Almost as though power is accrued at the expense of the vulnerable.

The difference here is the loss of domestic law and order and its cascading downstream effects for global cooperation and trade

The only countries that the US has alienated are ones it is explicitly sanctioning. Nobody else is actually cutting ties.

China is the obvious beneficiary.

China's the trade-alternative for countries under US sanctions, precisely because Trump's done a ham-fisted job of diplomacizing with his counterparts overseas. But a future Pete Buttigieg administration can patch that up if he chooses. There is more to be gained by doing business with the US than with Venezuela or Iran or Cuba. Chinese leaders know that and act accordingly.

But could get a whole lot worse a whole lot faster

Sure. Or it could come to a grinding halt if Trump loses control of Congress and falls into lame duck status three years early. Already, we're seeing sharp divides even inside the GOP, which already operates on thin margins in the face of a Dem election wave.

Plenty of precedent for an unpopular President to get sidelined by skilled and ambitious legislators. And the US has demonstrated time and time again that it has the manpower and the infrastructure to rebound quickly under strong, competent leadership.

We're almost certainly going to face a nasty recession going into the next few years. But we're still a massive, hugely populated, highly technical, heavily industrialized economy. Losing unipolar status isn't the end of the empire. A bad few years of economic contraction isn't the end of the world.

Now... the long tail of climate change... that's another story. If the Colorado River dries up before it reaches Arizona, we're going to see some shit flying.