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Trump has only set a precedent for China. If the rest of the west doesn’t do shit about this, which they won’t, China will just follow Trumps playbook. Don’t be surprised when Xi will order the kidnapping of the Taiwanese president.
Why would they do that? His playbook is dumb and routinely backfires.
Seems like they're stick with their existing playbook as it has been far more successful
The fact that they went with “Trump broke international law” instead of “America's unilateral actions validate our unilateral actions” gives me some hope (for lack of a better word) that they're going for a diplomatic / economic victory by trying to take the vacated US place as “leader of the free world” instead of going full Trump/Putin on a world that's already got enough shit to deal with.
The end point is still the same, of course, and I'm pretty sure it's not a very good one from an European citizen's point of view, but at least this would take longer and be less violent overall, and might help defuse Putin and Trump.
the US is making it more easy than ever for China to set itself up as the new world reserve currency/police/center of stability.
china works towards china's self interests, they're predictable but ultimately easy for the west to respond to if they stop ratfucking for a split-second.
you can't say remotely the same for the US, the US is an abusive partner that smacks you around for 4 years then gaslights you things are different (while still smacking you around) for 4 years, repeat
Something like that will happen. The US is trying to ruin China's oil imports - from Venezuela and Iran. China will need to show they are serious.
China could never, ever pull this off
First of all, the gap between the US military and Chinese military is massive. Keep in mind, until the Russia invaded Ukraine, it used to be the consensus second strongest military in the world, not China. The gap between the US and Russia is comically huge. China simply lacks the intelligence gathering capabilities and the air/navel superiority to project power like this.
Second of all, Taiwan is not Venezuela. Venezuela is a poor, horribly mismanagement country led by an incompetent dictator. It's relatively easy to pay off corrupt insiders to get them to work for you. It's also much easier to find, target, and destroy military targets. That's not true for Taiwan it is a wealthy, extremely managed country led by a democratic government full of qualified people. The Taiwanese government has been planning defense of their sovereignty for decades, and they're pretty damn good at it.
The point is that if China had the ability to do something like this then they would've already done, but they haven't because they can't.
US is behind in most important areas, and vastly underproducing China despite spending much more. Drones and hypersonics are the important weapons. Navies/tanks are all extremely fragile now, because of these weapons. Iran was able to match US/Israel sufficiently for ending the war by bombing a mountain. Russia is also outproducing the entirety of NATO in important defense areas that, together with nationalist full self defense motivation, has outmatched west's propaganda driven proxy war political will, with Ukraine's assessment of Russian war costs only 20% higher than just the western aid to Ukraine. 75% loss of GDP, 8m emigrants, and loss of territory since 2014 war provocations, as Russia has gotten much stronger in addition to passing Germany and Japan in PPP GDP is simply a collapse of the west event by itself.
Capability is expanding significantly every year. Autonomy with friendship is best outcome for Taiwan that it must balance to retain autonomy, which has been heading in wrong direction. Taiwan parliament majority is pro "neutrality" even if president is nazi. Easier, and more important to China, is a blockade of Taiwan that forces all exports to go through China first. US is currently losing ROK's allegiance. Japan and Philippines are cruising for a bruising. US is likely willing to trade Asia for Latin America
What alternate reality do you live in? Not a single thing you said is even remotely true
USA acknowledge and support One China Policy when it became convenient for corporations, under Carter. Now it's inconvenient for the same businessmen and regular people continue to dance on the strings of the uberwealthy puppetmasters and the rich who leave nations because of personal wealth either being affected or potentially affected. Same with Batista Cubans, Venezuelan and Chinese expats.
And there is also a reason so many Vietnam vets now reside in Vietnam, full time.
👆