this post was submitted on 12 Apr 2025
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It’s not a crash… it’s a wealth transfer. They saw how effective economic crisis was for wealth transfer during covid, and they are manufacturing a controllable version of that through on-again-off-again tariffs. The old advice of “stay the course” with your 401k may not be the best course of action anymore. But I’m no expert… time will tell.
"Stay the course" is still the best advice. You don't actually lose anything as long as you don't sell. As long as it recovers by the time you retire and start withdrawing from it, it's fine.
The main problem would be if Trump's fuckery deals a fatal wound to the US economy and it never recovers. Even then, you can diversify right now into international stocks to mitigate that chance.
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And thinking of it this way.. if you cash out and lock in losses and stop investing, you're likely to never or greatly delay your retirement. If you keep investing, even with catastrophic losses in the market, you'll be buying at the bottom and if you've still got enough time before retirement, you should still make it.
These thoughts and this paper and video analysis https://youtu.be/-nPon8Ad_Ug led me to that same conclusion. Definitely going to start having a more internationally weighted portfolio.