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‘Will I ever retire?’: millennials wonder what’s on the other side of middle age
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 18 Jun 2024
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Social Security is set to run out in the 2030s, and I fully expect the stock market to crash, effectively wiping out my 401k. As others have mentioned, resources like water will start to become scarce, inciting instability.
You only lose money if you sell. Those who were able to stay the course after '08 made it all back and then some.
The risk is a huge crash right before you retire, or you have to pull from your 401k to fund living expenses.
I think the fear is it stays crashed. Like a new paradigm takes over that is hard to plan for
Well that's a silly fear.
That's very pessimistic.
I call it realistic. If you think everything is going to work out, you're delusional, man. But I hope you prove me wrong some day, I really do.
Yeah, I'm not going to live my life like that.
i want to live like you; what evidence to you use to shore up this viewpoint?
Jumping in here with a couple cents. Background: Old millennial, paid off home, pension, 401K, 6 figs. I'll be able to retire. My viewpoint: Automation and AI will accelerate. "Safe" jobs will be gone. In fact most jobs will be gone by 2029 (my guess). Goal: keep working and investing until I lose my job.
Hard times will hit because government is slow and wealthy people won't care until it affects them. Once jobs are cut, profits for many businesses will fall because no one will be buying anything with the money they aren't making. As big companies begin to fail, stocks will have already begun dropping. Wealthy will go after government and government will have to do something. Only good option to keep things running: Universal Basic Income. Question is where does the money come from? Answer: AI/robots will be taxed and taxed almost 100% more than a human. Why? They won't care.
This leads us into humans have free-time to do whatever they like. Some can work where AI/robots fail for whatever reason, some can create new things using all the new tools. Businesses will still try and make the best products so the wealthy can still feel better with all the money that really won't matter as much anymore. They'll enjoy some exclusive things but it will likely be just locations and not technology.
TL;DR: Hell at first, then modern day renaissance.
That's, a remarkably rosy set of predictions.
I hope you are right, and big picture, I think things might shake out that way eventually.
But I am not as optimistic as you on several points.
I don't think LLM AI will do as much as you claim as fast as you imagine.
I don't think the owner class will put enough pressure on the politicians to generate that level of systemic change. They will muddle through with a thousand band aids stuck together.
Which will lead to an increasingly dystopic hellscape in which young people increasingly persue careers as scam artists, wanna be celebrities, and outright criminals because those are the only paths to a comfortable life.
But so hope to be wrong. Good luck to us all.
Not for the entire southwestern United States. There's 5 major cities off the top of my head getting ready to face a zero day. If you don't think the stock market is going to react when that happens...
What's a "zero day" in this context?
Zero day is the day a city runs out of water and must literally truck it in.
SSI isn’t set to run out. It will have to be reduced if they don’t take the income cap off of it, however.
But all the other things you said will happen.
Correct. IIRC there's an auto mechanism that will cut all benefits by 23% or something. So you're mom/dad getting $2,000 a month would now only get about $1,500.
that's as realistic as single payer healthcare; or universal basic income; or sensible gun control legislation; or abolishing the electoral college, they all have super majority support of everyone in this country but there's too much monied political interest against ever allowing it happen.
It will probably happen once the cut triggers. You are going to immediately see a lot of angry voters.
Considering how one party is hellbent on getting rid of social security and the other party just shrugs and let's them get what they want; id expect the shrugging party to be left holding to bag and suffer the political consequences once the cut hits with nothing happening
The one thing you can count on conservatives paying attention to is messing with their money.
What happens might not be pretty, but if they try to day "fuck it, guess we are ending the program" there will be hell to pay.
Nah. They'll be happy that minorities are hurt too.
With enough propaganda anything is possible.
If you think the stock market crashing wipes your 401k to 0 and that's realistic you need to get your head checked.
In 2020 it only dropped 20% and bounced back within 3 years.
Where do you chicken littles come from? Lol