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After Hitler built a cult for himself, some senior nazi officials tried to assassinate him in operation Valkyrie. They didn't think they would be able to retain popularity without him unless he died a martyr, in which case whoever took over would be able to use it as a rallying cry. If trump is assassinated, that's exactly what Vance will do.
Hitler had over 20 assassination attempts. Real ones. Compared to Trump, Hitler was on the battlefield in a WW and not a draft dodger. Hitler didn't just built a cult, he built the entire ideology on actual values and not gaslighting everything and everyone. While on the surface all of this is comparable to the Nazis, MAGA is so gullible, a squirrel could do what Trump does.
So yeah - Vance will probably do exactly that. And it may actually work
Though a poorly built Boeing aircraft with minimal QA likely will have the same results, it's hardly an assassination.