this post was submitted on 27 Dec 2024
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AI (LLM software) is not a bubble. It’s been effectively implemented as a utility framework across many platforms. Most of those platforms are using OpenAI’s models. I don’t know when or if that’ll make OpenAI 100 billion dollars, but it’s not a bubble - this is not the .COM situation.
The vast majority of those implementations are worthless. Mostly ignored by it's intended users, seen as a useless gimmick.
LLM have it's uses but companies are pushing them into every areas to see what sticks at the moment.
Not the person you replied to, but I think you're both "right". The ridiculous hype bubble (I'll call it that for sure) put "AI" everywhere, and most of those are useless gimmicks.
But there's also already uses that offer things I'd call novel and useful enough to have some staying power, which also means they'll be iterated on and improved to whatever degree there is useful stuff there.
(And just to be clear, an LLM - no matter the use cases and bells and whistles - seems completely incapable of approaching any reasonable definition of AGI, to me)
I think people misunderstand a bubble. The .com bubble happened but the internet was useful and stayed around. The AI bubble doesn't mean AI isn't useful just that most of the chaf well disapear.
The dotcom bubble was based on technology that had already been around for ten years. The AI bubble is based on technology that doesn't exist yet.
This is simply false.
It's a bubble. It doesn't mean the tech does not have its uses. And it is exactly like the .com situation.
I think that "exactly like" it's absurd. Bubbles are never "exactly" like the previous ones.
I think in this case there is a clear economical value in what they produce (from the POV of capitalism, not humanity's best interests), but the cost is absurdly huge to be economically viable, hence, it is a bubble. But in the dot com bubble, many companies had a very dubious value in the first place.
There is clear economic value in chains of bullshit that may or may not ever have a correct answer?
Completely wrong.