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What is the optimal strategy for random guesses for multiple choice questions? (retrofed.com)

submitted 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) by scallisto@retrofed.com to c/nostupidquestions@lemmy.ca

19 comments fedilink hide all child comments

If you know that each option (ABCD) is roughly 25% likely to occur, is it a better bet to guess all Cs (guaranteeing around 25%, probably a fail in most tests), guess 25% of each option randomly (so if there were 20 questions, 5 for each option), or do something in between?

Or what if you know that some option are more likely than others, let's say C has a higher chance of occurring than ABD. Should you go for all Cs or should you mix in some ABD?

And if you have already completed 50% (or any other amount) of the test already with presumably correct answers, is it better to guess all Cs for the ones you missed or to distribute them so that there are 25% ABCD each (or a different ratio if you know some are more likely on average)

edit: I'm not planning on random guessing every option on any future tests, and certainly not counting every option to ensure a spread out distribution (that would take up lots of time!). It's just a silly probability question

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[–] HubertManne@piefed.social 4 points 1 week ago (1 children)

its really about eliminating definately wrong answers. if you eliminate one now the guess is 33%. eliminate 2 and its a straight up 50/50 and of course if you eliminate 3 then you have the answer.

[–] Malgas@beehaw.org 1 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Now I'm imagining a test with the instruction to mark the correct answer if present. So it's possible that none of the choices are correct and you're expected to leave it blank in that case.

Thinking about it, it's equivalent to just adding a "none of the above" option to every question, but somehow it feels much worse.

[–] HubertManne@piefed.social 1 points 1 week ago

yeah but it now brings it to five options. questions that always have all and none of the above are kinda easier with 4 but 5 or more it slides worse.