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So we can...lose harder? What does he think is going to happen that hasn't already happened?
The whole point was to close the straight and choke China off from resources, but they are pretending it was to overthrow the Iranian government. Perhaps Trump is not informed on the actual plan, kept out of the loop because he’s an idiot. You will see this war continue annd the straight will remain closed against all rationality, and Indonesia/Straight of Malacca is next. The Western aristocracy that is driving this war does not care about the economy, they do not care about fertilizer or petrochemicals or helium. They are insulated from the consequences. They only care about maintaining exclusive global “full spectrum dominance”, and they will kill every living thing on this planet to maintain that control.
Whatever the USA's plan was, clearly isn't having the effect on China and the rest of the world they would have imagined. China's transition to electrotech let them ride out the shock without taking a bite from reserves, and the relative trickle of oil they would continue to need, they get at a discount from Russia anyway. Europe, too, is adapting and roughing it out. The lack of helium might be the biggest issue worldwide.
I'd sooner believe incompetence over malice here, that the reason the talks to open the Strait aren't progressing is because Trump needs his sycophants to brief him on the whole situtation multiple times a week. I imagine he's forgotten anything he had done in prior weeks.
China has substantial reserves and also as you mentioned has diversified their energy portfolio and constructed their domestic and foreign policy to be as self reliant as possible, but they are not impervious to sustained supply strain. Just keep an eye on Indonesia/Straight of Malacca. Interdiction of shipping in international waters. This phase is about maritime control.
I think it's a neat theory, but unlike between the Mediterranean and Arabian, Malacca has many options: Singapore, Lombok, Ombai, around the top of Australia are all possible detours to get shipping through.
Nothing would suggest to me that the Indo-Pacific regional countries are looking to jettison UNCLOS just over yet another Middle East squabble. Of course the USA could make more stupid decisions on account of nothing, but we can cross that bridge when that happens. Blockading might be seen as an appropriate response if, say, China were to invade Taiwan or Philippines.
Hasn’t the U.S. already “jettisoned UNCLOS”??? It certainly seems like they are preparing to start boarding and seizing vessels, but yeah, we’ll see alright. I think it will be quite a spectacle.
https://www.marines.mil/Force-Design/
I don't think that was the goal, I'm not even sure if that would really be effective as a secondary effect.
The Chinese are still able to buy petro chemicals from Russia at a discount, and they still have access to their largest import partners.
It's more believable to think trump did this partly as a favour to Israel, and partly as a favour to the American oil and gas industries, who has been the largest benefactor of the strait shutting down.
China only gets around 10% of its oil from Iran. Not sure how this is going to choke China.
I figured the whole point was one last MIC hurrah before the TIC takes over. Basically blow shit up and spend like there is no tomorrow because the Tech overlords need stability to bring about their new world order.
Also, most of the oligarchy is playing both sides (BRICS and G7) so it really doesn't matter. I think the emphasis on nations is holding people back from understanding what is really going on.
That's an interesting take. Hmmm.
I kinda doubt this. Seems more like Israel needed a distraction while they annex their neighbors to build "Greater Israel" and they in many ways purchased and blackmailed their way to majority political equity in America.
Like maybe this is what some elements in Trump's regime want but as a grand concerted plan that even half his cabinet are aware of? Nah. It's a room full of sociopaths who all want to get theirs. So who in the admin do you think is trying to do this?
Don’t pay attention to what the assholes in the White House or Congress say, pay attention to what the assholes at Rand Corp and Brookings say.
I'd believe that's what they want but I doubt they'll pull it off.
Can China get Russian oil? Does Russian oil go through the Straight?
Everything I've heard points to us doing this for Israel.
Russia supplies approximately 20% of China's total crude oil imports, making it the single largest supplier of crude to the country. China imports roughly 70-75% of its total oil consumption.
Russia:≈ 20% - 22%
Saudi Arabia: ≈ 14% - 15%
Iraq: ≈ 11%
Iran: ≈ 12% - 13% (Volumes are largely sanctioned and often relabeled/transshipped through other nations like Malaysia).
United Arab Emirates: ≈ 7%
Oman: ≈ 6%
Other Countries (e.g., Malaysia, Brazil): ≈ 31% [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Does it go through Hormuz though?
Not being a jerk, but I don't understand how this addresses my question.
Russia only provides 20% of their oil
If push comes to shove, which it very well may, do you think that number could increase? I do.
Depends on how many drones hit what russian oil facilities.
Yeah, everything's dependent on something (?).
Dude has never been 90 minutes into a Battle for Middle Earth 2 game with Sauron and 2 Balrogs summoned directly on your base.