Unfortunately, not much or very fast. While certainly Russia is not gaining ground anymore, that doesn't mean they're actually losing much. Really, it's still a continuum of the same stalemate. It's just slightly more in Ukraine's favor. Which ultimately is the prediction we have seen for many years by experts in war. Russia would do well in 2025, but as they run out, and have to use the old stuff, or nothing. while meanwhile Ukraine's industry is building up and the rest of Europe and Ukraine's allies, Ukraine will have a better 2026. Ukraine probably could advance faster too, but they are very careful about not killing all their men if they can avoid it. And so they're being careful, which is overall a good thing

[–] The_v@lemmy.world 22 points 14 hours ago (1 children)

My armchair general take on it:

Up until now in the war Ukraine has mostly been on the defense. Russia has been attacking constantly, daily, without letup for years. Every day another couple Russian battalions attack with horrendous casualties. Then the next day the same thing happens. Russia has many battalions that exist to gain a few inches and die. It looks like Russia is finally starting to run out of men willing to join these expendable battalions.

Russia does have some highly trained and effective people in the rear. They are in the industries manufacturing for the war, the logistics people moving goods and soldiers to the front, mechanics, drone pilots etc. These are the people that Ukraine has to neutralize to win the war.

Recently Ukraine has subtly converted from a defensive position to a more strategic offense. They have degraded the Russian defense enough that they can effectively target the people/infrastructure in the rear. These are not easily or quickly replaced. Each one neutralized creates a weakness that exposes more to attack. Eventually Russia will collapse and be forced to retreat.

[–] esc@piefed.social 2 points 6 hours ago

True, strategical offence, tactical defence/slow retreat. We have a lot of problems with actual defense tho, r*ssia can push enough men and resources to finish off donetsk oblast. Also 4 years of destruction do play a huge role, it's hard and slow to infrastructure. As for attacking with men we are really suffering from dumb decisions of 23-24 and propaganda war being lost to m*scovia.

[–] Lost_My_Mind@lemmy.world 4 points 14 hours ago (2 children)

I realize that Ukraine doesn't have nukes, but why don't they use regular bombs, and target Moscow specifically?

I feel like if you bomb the place that all the rich assholes are, this war ends years faster. It brings the war that they're paying for, right up to their doorstep, rather than a thing they read about in the news.

[–] bluGill@fedia.io 13 points 14 hours ago (1 children)

General experience, when you bomb a city and civilians therein, it doesn't end the war, it makes people more determined than ever to fight. That's why most militaries today refuse to do what Russia is doing to Ukraine. It actually hurts the cause.

[–] Skua@kbin.earth 12 points 14 hours ago (1 children)

See, for example, how the Iranian government seems to be far more secure after being bombed by America and Israel than it did before

[–] bluGill@fedia.io -3 points 5 hours ago (1 children)

Which Iranian government? They have several different factions and they are not in alignment. There is also real economic pain and it is quite likely there will be protests in the coming months that could well destabilize it in the government. I mean, the situation at Iran is not looking good for anyone right now, and the government, such as it is, is not looking any better than anyone else because they have other factors that are completely underrated to the war that are making the government unpopular. the situation at Iran is not looking good for anyone right now and the government such as it is is not looking any better than anyone else because they have other factors that are completely underrated to the war that are making the government unpopular

[–] mrdown@lemmy.world 4 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago)

While tension exists sign of government collapsing is unlikely .As long as Israel and the USA threaten to genocide them, you won't see major protests. Iran winning defend on how much concessions they can get especially regarding sanctions

[–] lurch@sh.itjust.works 0 points 12 hours ago (1 children)

I think it's because they're not sure they'll hit the rich assholes or pro war politicians. If they hit mostly NPCs it will be used as propaganda. We have seen cars of russian generals explode etc. So I think, if they can be sure, they will do it with a precision strike, but just for example dropping a bomb on the kremlin when nobody important is there is probably considered wasted ammunition for destruction of a historical site.

[–] Flower@sh.itjust.works 3 points 11 hours ago

Usually all the best defense hardware is concentrated around the elite. It'll take a lot of effort to punch through. That also means Russia's critical energy and manufacturing is less defended now.