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cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ca/post/41500238

Invasion of Canada would spark decades-long insurgency

Carney running away with it.

What's his next couple moves that he makes to seal the deal before the vote?

Presently in Canada we are participating in the most important Canadian election in my lifetime and probably yours too. Our country is under active threat, both from a threat to our economy and a threat to our nation's sovereignty itself. Whichever Prime Minster we choose to represent us on April 28, this person needs to deal with these significant threats and to provide solid and confident leadership in order to pursue policies that will enable our people to not just survive but thrive in this new world.

I believe this person is Mark Carney, and I will tell you why. Not because you must agree with me -- there are reasonable preferences and positions that folks can take and arrive at different conclusions than mine here -- but these are my conclusions as they apply to my situation and preferences.

Dealing with the threat to sovereignty.

The American administration is aiming for ownership of Canada's energy, water, raw mineral resources, and territorial control over the arctic waters. This is under the guise of Canada being some "51st state", and lets quickly and firmly dismiss this as the lie it is. The Americans do not even let their existing citizens vote when demographics are unsuitable to Republican successes, such as in Puerto Rico or Washington DC or various gerrymandered districts. The Americans do not want us to join them, they want to have our stuff. This is not a threat of annexation, this is a threat of conquest and annihilation.

This threat is compounded by the sabre-rattling of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. She wines and dines and pals around with the very same American propagandists who are pushing to annihilate us. And she threatens to promote an independent Alberta if her idiotic and short-sighted demands are not met. Nevermind for a moment how stupid this is -- Alberta would be isolated from Canada, and the Americans would seize on this vulnerability to bully them mercilessly -- but let's at the least just acknowledge this as one crucial aspect of leadership the next Prime Minister will need to deal with.

I do not believe that Jagmeet Singh is the ideal person to deal with these threats. Singh is a genuine and kindhearted man and I believe sincerely means well, but does not shown the strength that I believe is needed to handle this multifaceted crisis. He was outmaneuvered by Justin Trudeau when trying to push policy in the last government, and he was outmaneuvered by Pierre Poilievre when he was trying to collapse the last government. From the political choices he's made in terms of policy priorities and more, I believe he is out of his depth to handle these times of crisis and opportunity. In other times, a leader with his personality traits might be a fine candidate but in my analysis these are not those times.

I also do not believe that Pierre Poilievre is suited for this task, not even close. Some people claim that he is "like Trump" but this is inaccurate in my view. Instead I believe he is a weak person, lacking in moral or personal convictions. There is a video that PP posted on his YouTube channel where he bullies some small-time rural journalist, seemingly proud of his own success at being a complete asshole. His posturing there reminds me of those two-bit "alpha" scammers who for the mere price of $20,000 will teach you how to appear strong and tough. But we all know the desperate people who fall for this sort of thing are weak and soulless -- they need help and guidance, not the office of Prime Minister.

I do not believe that this weak and pathetic man will be able to stand up to people like Trump who is closely aligned with ideologically and culturally. Instead, I believe his "little man syndrome" personality will cause him to fold like a wet paper bag in any attempt at negotiations or defence of our country. And we see signs of this folding in practice, as he defends Danielle Smith's ultimatum and her ongoing association and friendship with people attacking Canada. And I see him choose policy positions not rooted in convictions. Poilievre's chasing of American culture war talking points (punching down on vulnerable minorities to score points with assholes), and his opposition of carbon pricing (easily the most reasonable market-based approach to reducing emissions), his attacks on science and in particular the attack on vaccinations -- these all add up to a man who blows where the populist winds take him. We do not need someone like this when all the chips are down.

I do however believe that Mark Carney is a person who can successfully represent Canada and our values, and to be able to stand firm in the face of a difficult threat. I believe this because he has extensive experience in leadership roles in both the private and public sectors, and based on the reports of people who worked with him during these times. One does not get offered the job as the first foreigner in hundreds of years of history to lead the Bank of England by being an idiot or bad at his job in any way.

Further, Carney's values are not based on the populist winds of the day, his positions are well-defined intellectually and spelled out in his 2021 book on economics entitled "Values". And finally, the way he handles deliberately hostile press in a no-nonsense way demonstrates that he is quick-witted and confident, not looking to deflect or avoid conflict. Carney also places much emphasis on being results-oriented -- a difficult task that many in politics have promised and failed to deliver on in the past -- but is an attitude that absolutely what we need to bring to government. Carney's focus, dedication, experience, and confidence -- I believe this is what we need from our leadership today.

Dealing with the restructuring of the Canadian economy

The recent US election has proven that a majority of voters that country do not prioritize or value consistency or rationality in their international relations. Regardless of the outcome of the current trade war, they have unambiguously demonstrated that they cannot be trusted going forward. This is rather inconvenient for Canada, given the deep economic times that have built up since the original NAFTA was signed. The current leadership in the US is deeply erratic and irrational and does not hesitate to blatantly lie even when absurd. This means that Canada has no choice but to permanently alter our relationship with this country, and will in turn require significant economic restructuring. It is crucial that we do this well, as this will affect jobs and groceries and frankly most aspects of our lives.

I do not believe that Jagmeet Singh is suited for this task. He has not shown a focus on economic issues, and many of the policies he has proposed have been ill-considered. There is a false believe in the current zeitgeist that the political left cannot have good economic policies, but this is false. There is a leftist answer to the housing crisis -- if the market fails, the government should build homes. There is a good leftist answer to the grocery crisis -- the companies should be broken up or disbanded. If markets fail, you step in to provide an alternative that works. But Singh has not proposed anything near this, and the half-measure solutions he has proposed such as a profit cap on companies is dangerously ignorant of how markets work, and would cause real harm in addition to being ineffective.

I also do not believe that Poilievre is suited for this task, not even close. Poilievre has shown himself to be devotee into the cult of free markets. His solution to any problem he faces is to cut taxes, cut services, cut workers, cut everything. It's a misplaced devotion, as the market cares about an efficient outcome not one that works for humans. If the free market benefits from uncosted externalities such as pollution, than to serve his cult he must deny climate science as it's inconvenient for short-term profits. When wealth inequality spirals out of control he must embrace that and expand with more tax cuts for the people who already have so much.

Canada cannot cut its way into the future when we are facing these difficult economic conditions. Reducing spending during a recession is an incredibly stupid proposal, and we have seen these austerity measures fail time and time again around the world as it triggers less spending and thus prevents economic growth. In no uncertain terms, Poilievre's plan will lead to a severe economic depression -- economic suicide. Yet there he is out on the campaign trail, wanting to cut anything and everything to aid the superrich and proudly show off his ignorant and blind faith in the free market. He papers over his ignorance with slogans designed to trick people who are not paying attention and don't understand what is at stake. This must be stopped.

I do believe that Mark Carney is the person to handle the task of restructuring Canada's economy. He is an insider who was worked at hedge funds and private banks, and helmed the Bank of Canada and Bank of England and helped shepherd both through significant crises. But he's also an insider who is keenly aware of the failures of the blind worship of free markets that we see demonstrated by Poilievre. Carney's 2021 book, "Values", is an intellectual refutation of how markets can and have led us astray from benefiting humanity when left unrestrained. This is precisely the situation Canada finds itself in as this new economic crisis begins, and we need someone who understands this to help lead us out of it.

Carney understands that to survive and thrive in the coming years, we need urgent work to build and invest in infrastructure, industry, and national defence. Not to cut services and people, but to redirect money and people into the many -- many! -- things we need to forge our new future. And he knows that results are what matters, not good intentions. This is not a game to him, he doesn't need to run for a pension or personal wealth or anything else a cynic might suggest someone goes into government for. He quit his cushy job and signed up to be the new face for a legion of deplorables to channel their anger at with their hastily printed "Fuck Carney" signs, and I believe he did this because he wants our country and it's people to thrive.

Conclusion

I don't know what the future holds, or if Mr Carney will live up to these expectations if elected. If he doesn't, we will need better representation from the other parties to hold him to account and give a good alternative. A permanent one-party political system is not what I or anyone else should want.

If you disagree with my perspectives and my conclusions here, please take some time and become active in whatever group represents your beliefs -- and do your best to help channel them into being the best possible versions of themselves. When I say these times are crucial, that doesn't mean you have to agree with me, it means you need to stop coasting. Get out of your comfort zone, dare to give a fuck even if you step on some toes in the process or seem uncool in the process.

Too many of our American neighbours chose inaction, and it has already cost them dearly. Gourd only knows how much worse it will get for them in the coming months and years. We Canadians do not have to share their fate, we can learn from their choices and their plight. I challenge you -- yes you, the reader -- to do something. Register to vote. Watch the leaders in their press conferences and see how they respond to questions. Look at the policy platforms as they are released. Ask questions, don't just take anyone's word for any of this including me. Go to your local representative's campaign office and ask questions. Volunteer. It's your country, it's important.

Choose action, and relish in the soulful feeling that you are standing with so many Canadians all doing their part to help save our country.

The NDP is proposing to waive the GST on vehicles made in Canada and ensure the federal government, including agencies such as the RCMP, buy only Canadian automobiles.

• Archived link since Western Standard is an extreme right-wing tabloid created by a rebel news co-founder.
• Take this website with a bucket of salt and treat it as a portal into the extreme right's intentions.
• This is why Canadians must stay united and avoid antagonising Albertans. Most Albertans do not want this. We must avoid the USA divide and conquer strategy.
• There are so many barriers to separation that make it highly unlikely.

So much of our public policy is damaged by voter's emotional attachments. https://open.substack.com/pub/billhulet/p/the-tragedy-of-the-commons?r=4ot1q2&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Justin Trudeau called abandoning electoral reform his biggest regret as prime minister. With a federal election on the horizon, how quickly can voting systems change? CBC News explains.

https://archive.is/Z3xuH

As a Canadian and an American, please learn from our mistakes. Do not give in to the 2-party system. There is a way.

Your Premier has delivered an "ultimatum" to Canada. Let's chat about what that means, and what your paths are going forward.

One is a path that your Premier wants to take you down. She wants to remove any and all restrictions on policies to help reduce carbon emissions. This path would boost profits for oil and gas industries, and it would be a boon to jobs in the oil and gas sectors. But at the same time, it's the opposite way that the developed world is moving. Europe and even China are moving quickly away from this. While gaining short-term benefits for some, it will have negative effects for the medium and long term.

The path of this ultimatum is a referendum to secede from Canada. This can go one of three ways.

1. The referendum fails, and Alberta stays inside Canada. Like with Quebec's attempt to secede in the 90s, this will cause lasting harm to the business interests of Alberta as companies move their HQs away because of the uncertainty and chaos.

2. Alberta joins the USA, based on DS's orange spraytanned pal's ongoing threat. But the USA does not let their states and territories retain oil and mineral rights, like Canada does. Their threat to take us over was never some magnanimous offer -- their naked self-interest should be more than apparent to any observer -- it's an attempt for them to claim your resources. And they will not give Albertans the right to vote, because even though Alberta is considered a right-wing province in Canada you'd be a danger to become a dreaded "blue" state. They don't even let current US citizens in Puerto Rico or Washington DC vote, it's farcical to think Albertans would be granted that. So in this path you would you would lose the rights to your resources granted to you by Canada, and the right to vote. But at least industry would be richer.

3. Alberta goes it alone. Screw Canada, screw Europe, screw everyone. Throw an Eric Cartman-like fit and make your own country. The way this plays out is that you get treated with hostility by all parties. The Americans have no loyalty to anyone but themselves, and they will use economic leverage to extract concessions and utterly dominate you. Canada will not extend an olive branch to help your landlocked country export goods, we will extract fees and levies to your exports that will be far more significant than anything that exists now.

Frankly, all of these outcomes fucking suck.

But here's the other path: You expel Danielle Smith and her ilk, and reject the toxic propaganda spewing across the border. Re-orient yourselves around Canada, and become a superpower within Canada and part of the new adventure that all Canadians are embarking on in this new post-American era. Oil and gas and the other natural resources in Alberta will continue to be a lucrative industry even if we slow the rate we extract them. We can and we will build rails and roads and pipelines east and west and north. The businesses you create in Alberta can buy and sell goods with the new trading alliances we are forging with Europe and Mexico and beyond.

Donald Trump has extended an offer to white South Africans to join America. With her contacts and friendships in place there, she can petition her orange bud to extend that offer to Canadians and herself as well. However many want to go, Canada can accept equal numbers of skilled tradespeople and doctors and scientists from America in return. This isn't some jokey suggestion made tongue in cheek -- Republicans want white MAGA loyalists to immigrate and the 10% of Canadians who support America would go a long way towards helping that goal. And it would help us too, and get DS the green card she's always wanted so badly.

So yes, Albertans. We need to choose the paths that we walk down. I'd much rather you choose the path where we walk together, the one that doesn't end miserably for the people of your province. But the choice is yours.--

It is easy to point at the Americans and the negative effects they have incurred from abandoning their treaty commitments. We see the boycotts and the burning of Teslas lots and the protests and feel the anger felt by people all over the world. We can see this because we are the wronged party, and this crystalizes the transgression being made by basing tariffs on obvious lies.

But can we look at the mirror and say that we are fundamentally smarter? Because Canada has signed on to climate treaties such as the 2015 Paris Climate Accord, and while progress has been made we are lagging behind significantly on our goals.

Three months ago, polls indicated that Canadians were ready to elect the CPC into power, with their stated primary objective being to "axe the tax" and replace it with... nothing. They said they would not withdraw from Paris commitments, but this was an obvious lie. The CPC propaganda successfully poisoned public sentiment in Canada against our effective market-based tool to manage emissions -- the so called "carbon tax" -- to the point where even the centre and left had to admit it was politically untenable.

Today, thanks to a remarkable series of events that very few if any predicted, the landscape looks very different. With the Americans threatening to invade us and doing extremely stupid and self-destructive actions, even some conservative-minded voters have taken a closer look at the CPC and have re-evaluated their choices based on what they see.

Despite being forced to kill the "carbon tax", Mark Carney will implement a new system of directly levying the primary industrial emitters. And to no one's surprise, the MAGA PP and his CPC and the treasonous Danielle Smith are opposing this vociferously as well. But we will do it anyhow, both because it's the right thing to do but also because we must in order to establish that we have honour and we are reliable.

Let's pause and reflect on what they want. PP and DS and their MAGA goons want Canada -- in this time of international crisis -- to fully abandon our agreements made with the very same countries that we are going to depend on for trade and defense in this new post-American era. They want zero restrictions, no caps or levies or controls of any kind. What they want to do is no less stupid than are the Americans who threw sand in their faces by putting Trump in office. Because if they get their ways this will lead to our further isolation.

So I reject the hypothesis that we Canadians are so smart and they are so dumb. We were willing to jump off the same cliff, and the only reason we aren't right now is that an unchained chaos monkey with a fresh coat of orange spraypaint can't stop threatening to invade our country every other day. Had Harris won, it would be our country going rogue and isolating itself from the world by violating our obligations.

So this is our chance, Canada, and we'd better fucking seize it. This election is happening soon and we must reject the CPC. Canada must honour our commitments and stand side-by-side with the partners who will be the backbone for our new economy as we forge new alliances and strengthen old ones.

For that to happen Canadians need to act, to volunteer and participate in the political process like we've never done before. To get out of our comfort zones, to get out there and convince each and everyone who isn't paying attention to soundly get out the ballot box and reject the stupidity and help forge this new future we are going to build. We're going to win, because we have to win, and because you're going to help me.

Elbows up

I don't know if these types of posts are allowed here, but does anyone know any websites or something where I can find a summary of different politicians' policies, plans, etc.

Most of the stuff I hear through news and social media focuses on personality (which is definitely an important deciding factor), but I want to see what changes they have planned for the country and stuff like that.

I just recently became a citizen and want to make as informed a decision as I can for my first time ever voting.

This is a message of doomerism but also optimism and hope for the future.

The Stick

The world has changed, and in my opinion if you are a Canadian living in the US you ought to start making plans to come back home or go elsewhere. Not for our sake, but for yours. Perhaps for people living in America there is be a sense of normalcy and complacency. Let's fire up r/murderedbywords with some clever remark and turn on Jon Stewart and get a good laugh in about how dumb Republicans are and how smart you are. Four more years and we'll get 'em. Oh I'm so embarrassed about what my country is doing, I'm so sorry.

But on the outside we are seeing a different picture. We see an America in a sharp decline and in hasty retreat from anything positive they may have once stood for. There is an unbridled fury at America for allying with murderous dictators, threatening and betraying its allies, and leveraging its economic strengths to bully for short-term gains. There is a smaller but not dissimilar rage against the American left for standing idly by while their country and it's democratic institutions are dismantled piece by piece.

There are worldwide boycotts against American goods and services, and these are picking up steam. The American media you consume may not reflect how just regular everyday Canadians are taking time to studiously check labels and reject things made in American or by American-owned companies. To cancel American-based subscriptions, to move to alternative services that don't funnel money into America. It is shockingly easy to do this thanks in part to globalization, when you realize that so many "American" products are actually made in China or China and the American bits are just some branding and repackaging.

And if you're a Canadian living in the US right now, this affects you in a practical way. Because you have enjoyed special treatment for decades, and you have become used to expecting that special treatment. Sure, when a Muslim or Mexican enters the US they may be treated with indignity and without human rights -- but not Canadians. You got the white glove treatment, and it was nice. You could pretend that the injustices and indignities weren't happening because they weren't happening to you. I know this because I was an ex-pat and this was me too.

But, no more special treatment for Canadians. Now Canadians who make clerical mistakes at the border are getting the same treatment that you'd expect someone from Haiti to get. No benefit of the doubt, no get-out-of-jail-free card, you get thrown in literal chains and held for weeks in barbaric for-profit prisons. Yes, even conventionally attractive, white Canadians. It can't happen to you, I'm sure part of your gut is telling you. But reality is telling you that it can.

As the world rejects and unites against the US, your status as an outsider will likely make you a target for the fury and hatred of the fascist administration and their many enthusiastic followers. The history of the world has shown that these types of governments have been very successful and manipulating their populations, and there is no reason to believe in American exceptionalism for this. When boycotts global cripple industry, will Americans blame their government for causing this, or will they bend to the propaganda and ally with the "strong man" who tells them they are blameless -- or will they blame the foreigners who are more directly hurting them? And YOU are a foreigner, the domestic face of what will be the next scapegoat.

Maybe my doomerism here is wrong. Maybe you can just coast for 4 years and things will magically get better. Maybe someone in America will act against what's happening. That sure would be nice, and I sincerely hope that's the case. But it's far from certain or even in my opinion likely. Your neighbours got a taste of this last time and got a clear roadmap for what would come, and decided that this is the America they wanted.

The Carrot

The case for Canada right now is a complete inversion of all this. Canadians are united with each other and with the broader world in a way that has never happened in my lifetime. There is an uplifting and deeply positive palpable energy to work more closely with Europe, Mexico, Australia, NZ, UK, and other allies around the world. We are building a new economy and a new future, and while uncertain it is also exciting with the possibilities.

Our country is poised for an election, widely expected to take place on Sunday. The current Prime Minister, Mark Carney, is a brilliant man with an amazing resume and has a sharp focus on getting results. He is both an insider who understands how business and the world economy functions, having led the Bank of Canada and Bank of England through crises as well as previously working at Goldman Sachs -- but also has an intellectual rejection of unrestricted free markets and the blind faith in markets that has led the western world into the tragic state of wealth inequality we find ourselves in now. Don't take my word for it, read his book, and I expect you to be as amazed as I am about how unique the opportunity is today with a man like this leading our country. And polls indicate that he will handily win this election.

But the country is bigger than one person and one party, and the likely outcome of this election will have further consequences. Canada's leading leftist party which has stagnated over the past decade will likely go up for leadership review post-election, and by holding a new leadership contest in this environment of unholy rage and optimism I have real faith that we have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to nominate a leftist of the likes of Tommy Douglas, or Jack Layton, or Bernie Sanders, or a firebrand like Jasmine Crockett or AOC or Charlie Angus. The country is hungry for this in a way that we never have been before.

And Canada will also reject the smarmy MAGA weasel who leads Canada's Conservative Party, because thanks to the threats pointed at us by America even most of our right wing has seen the consequences of going down the same path. This gives that party also an opportunity to select a new leader who can represent the conservative vision of Canada going forward. They can do some reflection and find someone who has inner strength, intelligence and experience, who doesn't get pleasure from punching down on vulnerable minorities, and who doesn't huff American propaganda. Because we all deserve this too.

You don't have to take my word for this. These are my predictions and you can see them play out or not in the coming weeks and months.

Canada's economy has been weakened tremendously by the trade war, there's no downplaying that. As the old proverb/curse says: may you live in interesting times. And the interesting times are here. But with upheaval there is opportunity. Because ending our dependence on America means that we must take some difficult steps to reorganize our way of doing things. It has been easy and convenient to ship our raw materials to the US for them to process in their industries, because the wages and taxes were lower and the regulations less stringent. The inertia from this export-oriented industry was significant, as any disruption would harm workers and companies involved with only an uncertain future benefit.

But now that disruption has arrived and we have no choice but to act, and we are acting. Canada has a tremendous availability of energy and raw materials and an educated population-- and we need new industries to leverage them. We need new retailers to distribute and sell them. We need new importers and exporters to get products to and from our new trading partners. We need new defense contractors, new tradespeople, new media producers, new goddamn everything.

And speaking specifically to my technically inclined friends, we also need non-US versions of the dominant American platforms. The network effect has long kept upstarts from being successful, so this is a likely-rare opportunity to disrupt incumbents such as YouTube, Reddit, Facebook, X, WhatsApp, Visa/Mastercard, Google, Apple, Netflix, and more. Because it's not just Canada who want this -- the services you build will also be welcomed in Europe and beyond. So all that expertise you developed working for these massive American companies and their billionaires to get even richer -- you can use those to found your own companies here or elsewhere abroad.

So this is not a doomerism future, not for us. Our elbows are up, we are fighting for ourselves and for the world. And you, my Canadian ex-pat friends, have an opportunity to be part of that.