Throw_away_migrator

Another data point yesterday was University of Miami (Ohio) poll of Ohio showing Trump+3 in Ohio. It's not as extreme a swing as the Selzer Iowa poll but it's a significant shift from 2016, 2020 and much of the polling this cycle.

So while the Selzer poll is out on a bit of an island, the Miami-Ohio poll certainly shows a similar swing.

I'm inclined towards pessimism, but it's hard not to feel there's some significant herding happening, and that the averages are being affected by it as well as some low quality pollsters flooding the data with polls

THIS is the Bad Place.gif

Then Ann Seltzer entered the chat. My goodness. I don't know if she just had an outlier or not. But you cannot accuse her of herding with that one

There were a lot of garage firms this cycle. Flooding the averages with a particular bias.

My gut feeling is also that the larger, more credible polling outfits are herding a bit and are afraid of under sampling the same voters they under sampled the last 2 elections. Though this bit remains to be seen, as I said it's more a feeling than anything.

Edit: also to add on to my herding note. I find it odd that every projection system out there says it's close but also makes a point to hedge further and say that a landslide either way is plausible. It just adds to my feeling of herding and general ass covering.

Edit 2: just saw the Seltzer Iowa Poll. This post is about 5 hours old at time of edit. Maybe gut was onto something

I'd argue a lot of our current problems are directly descended from Nixon being pardoned and facing 0 consequences for his crimes.

https://youtu.be/-MkRuV0aCcI?si=D4s4UxtQqjjt_-0u

I think your math is a bit off. It's more like 56.3% annually over 50 years

I think Anthony Jeselnik sums it up pretty well

https://youtu.be/4mCAl85hLkU?si=vwEMzE15kfHJMddV

Are you sure you're not thinking of Jolee from Kotor 1 ?

I've been using Boost. It has user tags, instance blocking which can even be extended to comments from blocked instances. Search is kinda eh, and sometimes gifs from less common sites won't load, but overall I'm happy with the experience.

Previously I used Connect. It was pretty good. Had similar features as Boost, but I found more issues loading content with Connect. Admittedly that was about a year ago so things may have improved, but I haven't gone back to check.

Urban coyotes always have an attitude that suggests they will just roll up and hangout on your porch smoking Pall Malls while your out. Then when you get home and see them, they just look at you with an expression that says, "Well... What are you gonna do about?" As the cigarette hangs from there mouth, ashing far longer than should be possible.

Are there any colorized versions, either video or images? Might make for some compelling side by sides.