I'm fairly certain you've got the right Michele Reilly. She's still associated with Vassar afaict.
Fun (maybe) Fact: you know this thread that came out a few years back? The batshit Vassar quote about John Galt and Isis at Burning Man? I have a hunch that Reilly is 'Isis'.
That comment section was an infuriating wreck. Nobody seems to have any idea what's going on and I can't find one good or solid point/anecdote on either 'side' that hasn't been directly contradicted or at least valiantly attacked. This is mainly due to the Vassarites spitting fire at anything even implying wrongdoing on their/Michael's part, while many high status LWers descend into a characteristically word-vomitous blame game regarding Vassar, CFAR, and community norms. The very few comments from people who react sensibly - some seem genuinely horrified and straightforwardly acknowledge the significance of these events - are kinda lost in the fray. The folks who genuinely seems to want to help are flopping around like dying fish in the comments, given that no one can even agree on a basic narrative to build on. Additionally, Rats are paying for a relative lack of structural cohesion: there's no reliable community-based place/group for individuals to tell their stories or express their concerns, no way to quickly and reliably spread messages/alarms, etc. (I think a Rat/EA guy who was involved in such efforts wrote a tangentially relevant post on this theme, 'Decentralized Exclusion'). The most they can hope for is EY coming out in a large platform to say, 'Ayyyy guys maybe these things are. . . bad.'
I like your hypothesis. Too bad we don't know more, though I'm sure other people know plenty (maybe dgerard has some insight from gathered testimony, documents and the like?). If this were a r/AITA post (imagine that!) my conclusion would be an ESH. It does seem that woo/psychedelics have been a depressingly transformative influence on large parts of the community, and I'm willing to believe the worst of CFAR. EY's distress on the former seems genuine, though I'd bet he's primarily upset at how his own mission has been affected (a man's gotta have priorities). Rat 'community norms' are indeed bollocks and no doubt contributed to the whole affair. At the same time, the comments on Vassar are revealing and Scott's retraction is kinda sus ('oop, I called him and he says he didn't do it'), especially given how confident he seemed about his pretty wild earlier statement (this also happened with Salamon - she about-faced from a straightforward 'Vassar is bad people and I regret associating with him' to 'I talked to him and feel bad now so I take it back'). Interesting that EY thinks Vassar himself is an early casualty. I've seen enough anecdotes and evidence from others to be convinced that Vassar and some of his circle played a significant role in this (there's more to the Vassar-Ziz connection than we will ever know, someone should interview Ziz lol), although exactly how is obfuscated by deliberate deception and the time that's gone by along with shifting social dynamics and the Bay Rats' own issues.