Nightwingdragon

No, that's a separate case. That said, I'll agree that that guy is probably dead too.

This guy fled El Salvador at roughly around the age of 16 and illegally entered the US. He's married to a US citizen and has a daughter with special needs. He has not been charged with any crime in the US, and was granted an order protecting him from removal to El Salvador in 2019 on humanitarian grounds.

That order was ignored.

I don't know why this is being downvoted. There is a very real possibility that he's already dead. He's being housed in a cell with members of the very gang that he was fleeing from. Those people have nothing left to lose. They're in there for the rest of their lives and could just kill this guy for funzies and their situation wouldn't change at all. He's not, to our knowledge, being held in any kind of segregated unit for his own protection, and there's nobody who can check on his well being. Heck, either Trump or Bukele could just order him killed because he's too much of a political liability. For all we know, we could be fighting for the freedom of a man who was killed by his cellmates last week.

As predicted.

Roberts gave no official reason yet, but we all know how this case is going to end up.

Most likely, the Supreme Court is going to say that while the Trump administration made an "administrative error" in deporting him, there is currently no enforceable remedy available. There's also the chance that they'll just slip in a reminder that this man's deportation was an "executive decision" by Trump as part of his official duties and is therefore immune from any legal liability even when he makes an error.

Most likely, the official decision is going to render Xinis' order unenforceable and therefore quashed and that'll be the end of this case. His family may continue trying to pursue this case through civil litigation, but will most likely run into the same wall of "Too bad, so sad, Trump's immune, sucks to be you."

No, he has not said that, and I agree that it's important to get it on the record for a variety of reasons.

I'm just saying that there is a very likely possibility of this being the end result, even if only so Bukele can cozy up to Trump, and that if he does say this, the geopolitical reality of the situation is that it would essentially be the end of the case.

Right. Of course, the obvious question is what would happen if one of the people sent there is a US citizen that got sent there through a similar "error".

They're paying $6 million. At a geopolitical level, that would barely qualify as a rounding error on one of their budgets.

That, and we don't know the details of the agreement that Trump made with El Salvador. This is Trump we are talking about. He very well could have made a deal to give Bukele $6 million and dump a bunch of random gang members to rot away in CECOT while getting nothing in return and having no recourse if mistakes are made. This is a Trump deal we're talking about after all.

Assuming Trump even wanted to cooperate (spoiler alert: He doesn't), the only leverage is that $6 million payment. And that's assuming that the payment hasn't already been made. If Trump handed over a plane full of random people and a $6 million check, it very well could be a case of Trump dropping them off and saying bye.

Doesn’t matter if he was a citizen or not.

You are right that it doesn't matter in terms of constitutional protections, but it does matter in terms of how this case plays out.

It's one thing to ask a foreign country to send a US citizen back to the US. It's a completely different thing to ask a country to send back one of their own citizens.

Regardless of what you think of the charges that Garcia is being held on (and I fully agree that they're completely bogus), the US is essentially asking that a foreign country send one of their own citizens back to the US so they can escape the foreign country's own judicial system. That is just never, ever, ever going to happen. I'm not saying it's right or wrong. I'm just saying no country is ever going to agree to it.

they make some kind of half hearted “bad man Bukele won’t cooperate” argument

That's not half-hearted. It's a very, very real possibility especially if Bukele wants to cozy up to Trump and give him an out.

"Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia is a citizen of El Salvador and is currently in our custody awaiting trial on criminal charges for crimes he committed before he fled the country to escape justice. He will remain in the custody of El Salvador until he is tried for those charges and any sentence imposed on him has been completed. He will not be sent back to the United States."

From there, Trump can easily make a "good faith" argument that he tried to have the citizen returned but was unable to secure his release. His MAGA base will eat it up, and it's very likely that the Supreme Court would dismiss the case based on lack of jurisdiction and lack of enforcement mechanism. Even if they don't, any ruling would be a symbolic gesture at best and carry as much practical weight as me making the same demands from my front porch.

Remember, El Salvador has absolutely no reason to send this guy back. Bukele is under no circumstances going to defy Trump's wishes when he's actively trying to cozy up to Trump. If anything, he's only going to run cover for Trump.

We don't have to like it, but that's the reality of the situation. There is no method of enforcement. If El Salvador is unwilling to send him back, he's staying there. And the Supreme Court could very well recognize that reality. They could easily vote 9-0 that Trump was in the wrong but dismiss Xinis' order anyway due to it being unenforceable.

He is a citizen of El Salvador. It even states as much in the first line of the article. He fled the country to escape the political violence and gang warfare. Any charges he's facing are likely made-up and he shouldn't have been sent back there in the first place, but he is a citizen of El Salvador.

That in itself complicates matters tremendously.

They shut down USAID over allegations of waste totalling $57,000.

Think of how much one of these North Korea style military parades would cost.

Just sayin'

I am putting all of my money into saying that the Supreme Court will rule in Trump's favor on this case and claim that the US has no authority to ask El Salvador to send one of its own citizens back to the US, or method of enforcement.

This is standard procedure.

Claim it was a "joke". That way, others can say the same thing and use the same excuse. This normalizes it. Then, when some lone wolf actors take it seriously and act on it, people like this can say "We had nothing to do with it! He acted on his own!" and disavow themselves of all responsibility.

This guy would love it if MAGA morons started taking it seriously and attacking reporters.