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They can be true. They might be low on current stockpile, but what is building up is production capacity. Preparing to attack doesn't mean immediately attacking, what most have concern is that once Russia's war against Ukraine cools down, Russia will spend the next 4-10 years building up towards potentially attacking NATO nations.

Yes, years down the line doesn't sound as alarming to the layman, but it is critical for that eventuality to be recognized and prepared for, nations and industry move slowly, and they need to prepare to fight another long drawn out war.

The idea is that after some kind of cease fire, russia will churn out stuff for 3-4-5 years (so mebbe 1.000 tanks?) and then not go full frontal against NATO but say take a bite out of Lithuania, just to see what the response will be.

Like they have been doing since forever (Chechnya, Moldavia, Georgia, Ukraine and so on).

Both things can be true because Germany is talking about risks in the upcoming 5 to 10 years, while this issue is relevant today.

We have to keep in mind that Europe needs to justify austerity for the citizens and rearmament for their militaries. I have no evidence of this, but I think it's an entierly sensible read that the warning from Germany is an overstatement with that intent in mind.

There are ways Russia can attack that doesn’t include massive tank charges

They absolutely can.

Russia has thousands of men willing to fight in horrendous conditions.

A few thousand soldiers that are very well equipped might lose to 10x as many badly equipped enemies.

I think they would lose, but they might not think so.

Everything written about this conflict (by anyone) is propaganda. The enemy is a powerful and maximally oppressive force we all need to fear, but is also so weak it's losing equipment fast and its final defeat is only a matter of time.

If you know anything about current Russian government, you'd know that one necessarily follows the other. The more desperate Russia gets, the less reserves they have, the more bold and aggressive they're getting. There is a combination of factors leading into it, both psychological and material.

And the world. Fuckers have infected everything

Agreed. I want the killing to stop and Russia to stop it's conquest.

Don’t worry, the US will probably bail Russia out to keep that from happening

And yet, moving the front is almost impossible without them. All vehicles struggle with drones but at least tanks won't go down from machine gun fire, and without vehicles were pretty much back to WW1 tactics, fighting over inches.

Kinda what happened to battleships in the era of aircraft carriers and submarines?

Yes. Back when analysts used to talk about a war with Russia pre-2022, something you heard pretty often was "they're not as advanced, but they have so much stockpiled armour".

This is like America running out of guns or Canada running out of syrup.

Unless the Ukrainians have resorted to conscripting great apes, it's "guerilla" rather than "gorilla".

Russia has been coasting on old Soviet stock for a while. Most of their modern t-90s and t-14s have been exploded. They've been sending mothballs tanks and apcs to the front for years now. Last year a good deal of frontline troops were using unarmored Chinese golf carts to move around. They never had the manufacturing capability to keep modernized armor at the front, and it is costing russian lives

Drones don't hold ground, soldiers do. Soldiers that have tanks are going to be more effective than those without them.

Covert Cobal has been classifying in mainly 4 categories. Abysmal is the lowest one, and are often missing such minor accessories as the turet, tracks, engines, and wheels. Not to mention having sat outdoors for upwards of 50 years. Those conditions are mostly what they're down to. It might allow for slightly higher throughout on production to start on these rusted husks rather than from raw steel, but it'd definitely be harder and more expensive to make these usable than to build a new tank from scratch.

https://youtube.com/@covertcabal