this post was submitted on 20 Feb 2025
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Summary

NASA has lowered the estimated risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth in December 2032 to 1.5%, down from 3.1% a day earlier. The European Space Agency's (ESA) estimate stands at 1.38%.

The asteroid, 40-90 meters wide, could cause significant city-level destruction but not a global catastrophe.

The projected impact corridor spans the Pacific, South America, Africa, and South Asia.

NASA also estimates a 0.8% chance of the asteroid hitting the Moon.

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[–] [email protected] 46 points 2 months ago (2 children)

So you're tell me there's a chance?

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 months ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago

I'm a Powerball man...

Those are great odds!

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago

Sure hope so!

[–] [email protected] 42 points 2 months ago (1 children)

What do we need to get this to %100?

[–] [email protected] 26 points 2 months ago (1 children)

It's probably made up of dense materials like iron. Let's pile all the earth's magnets at the White House!

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago

I'll give mine, as long as someone helps with the shipping!

[–] [email protected] 21 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (4 children)

As someone who's played MMOs, 1.5% chance is actually pretty high.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 2 months ago

As someone who's played XCom, a 1.5% chance of a bad thing (questionable) means it's gonna critically hit

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago

As someone who played Ragnarok Online extensively, 1.5% for a single monster kill means I will never find that item.

Not to mention cards’ .01% drop rate ugh

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[–] [email protected] 18 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Keep looking, there's got to be something out there that can hit us!

[–] [email protected] 8 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (3 children)

I'm not sure if you saw the recent news but we have a possible new mummy curse, never give up hope

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Yeah, but mummies can be friendly.. asteroids are a sure thing. Just ask the dinosaurs.

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[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago

There's always a chance that we can hit by a gamma-ray burst.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 2 months ago (5 children)

Everyone hoping there's still a chance, you need to remember... this is only a city-killer asteroid.

We need to hope for a much bigger asteroid.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 2 months ago (4 children)

As long as it falls on the right city, it would do the entire world a massive, once in 500 years favor.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Unfortunately North America doesn't fall under the possible impact zone

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 months ago

More proof that there's no god.

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 months ago

Would have been funny if it hit Buenos aires

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago

If the alien movies serve us correctly, this is luckily going to hit the USA; possibly Washington DC directly.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago

If it hit the middle of the ocean, it could be cool and nothing else.

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[–] [email protected] 14 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Reminder that the asteroid is only large enough to destroy a city and, even given the rare chance of it hitting Earth, in all likelihood would land in the ocean and cause no damage. It's not a doomsday asteroid

[–] [email protected] 18 points 2 months ago (1 children)

imagine if it falls and perfectly annihilates the trump administration though

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Unfortunately, Washington is outside of the possible impact zone. (Well, Washington in Brazil is inside, but it's not about that one.)

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago

DART successfully moved an astroid that was probably way bigger!

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[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

Can we please not post daily updates? This is still 7 years away

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 months ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago

I am down to have monthly updates for the next few years, weekly updates through 2031, and daily updates throughout 2032

I just feel like if we do daily updates for the next 7 years when it's in all likelihood going to miss us, we'll be too complacent when an asteroid does have an impact trajectory

[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 months ago

Well, that's disappointing..

[–] [email protected] 10 points 2 months ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 months ago

🙏🙏🙏

[–] [email protected] 9 points 2 months ago

Just give us the confidence interval and stop updating. We will know better in January 2029 once it has passed by and been tugged by our gravity and the moons.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Bets on it being totally ignored by the world if it turns out to be aimed at Africa?

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 months ago

Africa actually does seem to be the most likely impact if it were to hit. The predicted impact would be along the equator.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 2 months ago
[–] [email protected] 7 points 2 months ago

So you're telling me there's still a chance

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Giant Meteor for Earth President 2032!

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 months ago

Why wait? The best time would have been the dawn of civilization. The second best time is now.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 months ago (1 children)

The global astronomical community expects the odds of an asteroid to hit Earth in December 2032 to eventually fall to zero.

I love how they make it seem like some insider expertise versus knowing basics of how percentages work.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 months ago

I mean, without knowing what the number represents, it's not obvious why it goes up and then suddenly drops like this.

They basically predict a cross-section of places it could go through, which shrinks with improved data. If the Earth is still inside, that makes it's share go up. Eventually, it hits an edge and the share drops to zero suddenly

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 months ago

Dontgivemehope.meme

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 months ago

Damn. The bugs need to up their accuracy

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 months ago
[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago

The way the world is going, it might not be a bad thing if it hits us.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago

Is this the new seven minutes to midnight? We're 1.5% to asteroid.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago
[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago

There is this fun toy see/calculate the potential effect of any asteroid collision: https://neal.fun/asteroid-launcher/

If it hits any city, that is wiped out. If it hit anything else, chances are damages are moderate.

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