This sounds like hopium. Until Putin starts saying something, assume all that will happen is for everyone quoted to suddenly find a high window.
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I'm pretty sure there's no real recovery from this cluster. They've killed off so much of their workforce that it'll take forever to catch back up.
Not because Ukraine has turned the tide?
Not on the frontlines it would appear. The strategy of punishing Russia economically seems to be more effective than defeating them militarily.
They might be surprised to learn that Ukraine has to agree to end the war before it'll actually end.
russia cant have that, otherwise putin would look weak, he probably wants the territory he holds to ceded to russia.
As someone other megalomaniac learned in Iran recently: It takes two to TACO
For a long time, they could have stopped the war any time they wanted by just retreating their troops.
If they give all land including Crimea back and pay sufficient reparations, Ukraine might agree.
returning all the children they FILTRATED into russia.
I'm pretty sure Ukraine will be reasonable once they leave. Some sanctions though may not be so easy to lift, may be tied to reparations or giving up war criminals.
the thing is trump lifted some oil sanctions from russia recently.
To save the economy they first need to agree to reparations.
and giving back CRIMEA. and they mostly sacrificed russians from the poorer regions and not from Moscow, ro st petersberg, plus the 1million+ brain drain that went on immediately at the start of the war. i don't think they will recover anytime soon. he is keeping his troll farms well employed though, thats probably his top priority.
And return of kidnapped children. The troll farms need to go as well.
The Special Military Operation was a success! The economy put up a good fight but after 4 years and more lives and materiel than the Great Patriotic War, the ruble has finally been defeated. Putin finally defeated Russia!
Interesting enough, the ruble is actually quite strong, which does create problems for Russia's exports, while they are capped on imports by the sanctions so they can't really make use of that
Oh how benevolent of the Russians. /s
"The Russian economy is going to collapse and then the Ukrainians will win" is a line that's been printed since the war started.
It's been going on for four years and you are still in deep trouble if you dare calling it a war and not a "special military operation." I don't think Russia will be ready to agree to any peace until it's utterly defeated.
Or until Putin is deposed.
Well at least they also ended a lot of their own bloodlines.
That would assume they sent out their productive citizens to the front. The Russian army is now composed of 60+ years old alcoholics and prisoners. This is intentional.
putin is avoiding sending the people from st petersberg and moscow, his base of political power. and likely with increasing adoption of EV is likely making him extremely nervous.
Everything you and GP just said are all simultaneously true.
A Billion over the course of the next 3-4 generations.
Wouldnt that temporarily fuck the economy even more? Of course at one point you have to stop it before it becomes even worse.
"Peace is good for business."
— Rule of Acquisition #35
Let em suffer