Ask Lemmy

No one can time the market. The answer depends on your risk tolerance and security buffers. It is schrodinger's market. It is always the best and worst time to hypothetically jump in or out of markets. It's only after you do that the probability wave form collapses and becomes one or the other.

Predictions depend on a stable system. No where is stable so don't bother.

If anyone knew that they'd be very wealthy

The issue isn't the timing, it's that your buying at the top of your price range, and therefore overspending.

Most Americans own too much house, and too much car. There is no reason a 2 person household needs a 3000+ sq ft home... and 2-3 60K cars... and yet that's incredibly common.

BUY LESS. Be more financially secure!

If top of your price range means you’ve already calculated for what would happen if your income was jeopardized, then go for it. If top is living beyond your means, then probably not a good idea any time.

Just a guess, but I'd recommend to wait one or two years. Things will get worse, and thus cheaper to buy. In the meantime save up for a larger down payment, instead of stretching your finances now.

After the next election, people will have more hope and prices will increase in the following years. Expect to hold the property for at least 10 years. Anything shorter could be a loss.

Depends on how secure your financial future is.

Maybe you're in a good predictable business, or a nice stable government job, maybe you're in something that's making money right now, but could turn out to be a flash in the pan like startups, or AI or crypto or Pokemon cards.

Anything can happen, but if you can pay off the loan on your new house quickly, that reduces risk by a lot.

Depends. First, if you need financing, it's probably not a great time to buy although if things ever get sane, you can refinance. The interest has been high. If you can buy outright, though, that's a non-issue.

Second, it depends on where you get your income. Some sectors are shakier than others. Rely on public contacts? Avoid. Healthcare? Probably fine. Tech? No idea, probably a bad idea. If you might get replaced tomorrow, do not finance a home.

Lastly, consider where. You don't want a place that's going to be hazard prone with global warning. Places are priced accordingly but if your home ends up flooded, set ablaze, or lifted to another location by a hurricane, probably not a great idea. There won't be enough public support to make up the loss.

I'm personally holding down my starter home but I had to buy points to pay down interest to meet a debt ratio, and my math suggested 8 years to make that a net gain. But the above reasons have factored into my holding back.

I don’t think anyone here would be qualified to answer that, nor would anyone qualified to answer that be necessarily right.

What is your interest rate like? If you have a super low interest rate, no, it wouldn't make sense.

are you changing jobs too? is your job secure? do you have 6months +++ emergency fund? do you have a side hustle? does your partner work? are there jobs in the area you can possible do?

I'k probably overreacting, but I suggest spending your dollars while the dollar still has value.

Well it's not going to simultaneously be a bad time to buy and sell.

Ah man, that's a tough call. Personally we're only moving if the place we move to has some potential for homesteading and self-sustainability to ride out this storm. These next years are going to be pretty turbulent to say the least. We're laying low and living below our means.

To me the real question is: is your income recession proof? (eg, medicine or some essential service that even survived covid). Because we're in a silent recession now, likely headed for a depression or major stagflation.

I want to buy a new house but I know AI will put me out of work soon, so holding off. Realistically, I should leave for a much lower cost of living country.

It's always better to not be in the US

As a rookie, look to mortgage rates. Are long term rates significantly lower than shorter term rates? That indicates the big heads (the people who get paid to do this) are saying the market will soften.

Your financial situation could vary a lot in ways that may not provide good advice from internet strangers. Suggest talking with a financial advisor, see if you employer has access to one as a benefit.

For buying a house three key factors are: what is your current interest rate and potential new interest rate? Do you have stable income/recession resistant job (even if a recession may be a ways off)? How many months of an emergency fund would you have after the purchase (is that enough for your risk tolerance?)?

Timing the economy is challenging and many have lost out on trying. Even if you see bad signs for the economy, it can take years for that to have real world impacts on employment or housing values. The market can stay irrational/in denial for a long time until a crash.

Seems pretty volatile in most countries right now so would depend on how stable you believe your income is and if you could comfortably afford the total cost of ownership (expensive houses tend to have higher property taxes, insurance and financing costs, etc).

Me personally, I probably wouldn't stretch my finances right now with all the uncertainty just so I don't stress about making ends meet if my situation changes. But everyones' circumstances and risk tolerances are different.

We did it. Its tuff. But the home makes the difference in our lives. Betting on wage increases over the long term is hard to calculate but an important part of taking on more debt financing. Rates for mortgages are still low and can aid that financial decision against increases in future wages.