this post was submitted on 02 Mar 2026
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cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/43779131

In his May 29, 2024 class, Jiang Xueqin explains that an American invasion of Iran would be a catastrophic mistake:

If Trump were to win a second term, he would likely contemplate invading Iran. While an initial invasion would seem successful, American forces would quickly become bogged down in Iran's mountainous terrain.

The American invasion would be similar to Athens' invasion of Sicily in 415 BCE, as described in Thucydides' The Peloponnesian War. Despite its initial successes, the Athenians couldn't re-supply themselves, and their entire expedition was wiped out.

This disastrous defeat turned the war in Sparta's favor, and spelled the downfall of the Athenian empire.

Could the American empire in Iran suffer the same fate as the Athenian empire in Sicily?

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[–] Myron@lemmy.world 0 points 1 day ago

There is no stopping a war once it has begun, other than victory for one side or the other. It simply doesn't matter how or why the US went to war with Iran anymore. It happened. That is the reality; will leave it to Historians to tell us 'why'.

Living in the present, the ball moving forward, efforts must be made to either accept defeat quickly, or make decisive moves toward victory.

Taking the second option will include boots on the ground. There is no need to count your chickens before they hatch—nobody can predict how many lives must be offered on the altar of anti-Islamic totalitarianism and human rights (if these are goals worth pursuing, which isn't the point, militarily).

Likely a slow and methodical push across the Iraqi-Iranian border with joint-Allied Western troops, trained in the tactical necessities thry have chosen to undergo (not sending in peasant cannon-fodder), and sizing vast territory by use of force while arming and supply Iranian dissidents with means to defend themselves and become strategic partners in the cause of their own potential freedom, is a thoughtful approach.

The outcome is impossible to predict, as similar allied efforts on the other side could coalesce as well, though at current outset seems unlikely as there is little to actually gain by extending the power of a failed and unpopular Messianic cult of extremists who only ever cause trouble and create conditions worthy of constant pushback by trading partners.

[–] Myron@lemmy.world 0 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Please give examples of satellite technology during Antiquity ... Will accept oracle's, magical devices we can no longer make sense of, and supernatural mental powers...

Regardless, Athens and Sparta were similar cultures, ethnographically. A better analogy would be Brittish Empire vs. American Colonies... Reconquista resulting in Ferdinand and Isabella overthrowing the Iberian Islamic Caliphate, or Andalus.

Due to virtual geological isolation, the likely downfall for the US oligarchy would be a sharp and violent civil war. They could afford to lose a variety of foreign adventures, in our highly technological world, without actually falling.

[–] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 1 points 3 days ago

Chinese Nostradamus Game Theory Uncle

Its interesting content, but its an untestable set of theories, like you are outlining, other than by what they are currently doing, by making direct predictions about what will happen given action A, B C.

I think I'll have to give them more credence if the US gets boots on the ground in Iran and we lose 100k troops.