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Predictive History: Geo-Strategy #8: The Iran Trap (www.youtube.com)

submitted 4 days ago by TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world to c/globalpolitics@lemmy.world

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cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/43779131

In his May 29, 2024 class, Jiang Xueqin explains that an American invasion of Iran would be a catastrophic mistake:

If Trump were to win a second term, he would likely contemplate invading Iran. While an initial invasion would seem successful, American forces would quickly become bogged down in Iran's mountainous terrain.

The American invasion would be similar to Athens' invasion of Sicily in 415 BCE, as described in Thucydides' The Peloponnesian War. Despite its initial successes, the Athenians couldn't re-supply themselves, and their entire expedition was wiped out.

This disastrous defeat turned the war in Sparta's favor, and spelled the downfall of the Athenian empire.

Could the American empire in Iran suffer the same fate as the Athenian empire in Sicily?

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[–] Myron@lemmy.world 0 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Please give examples of satellite technology during Antiquity ... Will accept oracle's, magical devices we can no longer make sense of, and supernatural mental powers...

Regardless, Athens and Sparta were similar cultures, ethnographically. A better analogy would be Brittish Empire vs. American Colonies... Reconquista resulting in Ferdinand and Isabella overthrowing the Iberian Islamic Caliphate, or Andalus.

Due to virtual geological isolation, the likely downfall for the US oligarchy would be a sharp and violent civil war. They could afford to lose a variety of foreign adventures, in our highly technological world, without actually falling.

[–] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 1 points 3 days ago

Chinese Nostradamus Game Theory Uncle

Its interesting content, but its an untestable set of theories, like you are outlining, other than by what they are currently doing, by making direct predictions about what will happen given action A, B C.

I think I'll have to give them more credence if the US gets boots on the ground in Iran and we lose 100k troops.