Can’t wait.
this post was submitted on 06 Nov 2025
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Predicting the random market movements is ... almost impossible, even for this "big short guy" imho.
I have been trying to make sense of all AI Capex announcements for a while and I don't get it. So please help me out if you know the answer.
US Investment in 2024 ~$400b, 2025 ~$500b, 2026 ~600. Global investment 2026 1.5~$2.2t. Let's say $2t US Investment by end of 2026. Investment will continue into the future but let's assume that is not the case. Also that GPU will be obsolete in 5y. So, they have 60m to recoup $2t +ROI ~10%. So about $40b a month, US has a labor force of 170m. Thus, AI industry needs the equivalent of ~$240 per month per each employee. I don't see myself or my employer paying this for AI any time soon.
I think Ray Dalio's take on it is correct. It's a consequence of currency devaluation, as people in general vote against the decrease in spending necessary to deflate the asset bubble. (1)
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Which would explain why the Fed is dumping trillions of dollars into banks right now.
Seems like more of a bet specifically on Palantir, unless there are a bunch of other smaller bets they didn't bother to mention.
of all the AI, thiel kept palintir, and his other LOTR-themed Ai companies very secretive. since mossad/IDF, and ukraine uses it, i bet it gives faulty/false positive targeting?
But as you said those are all secretive contracts. How would anyone know that kind of thing to bet against without some insider info?