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Or, and I know it's going to sound like a conspiracy theory, Trump picked JD because JD is so weird, and he knew that JD would tank. So when Trump drops JD it'll give him a boost, like the one the democrats got when Biden dropped out. Trump has repeatedly kept lowering people's expectations, to the point that if he somehow managed to put the round peg in the round hole, it would be a success. So imagine the boost Trump would get, for making the obvious decision to drop JD.
But that plan requires that Trump is able to play the long game, and stay quiet about it. Two things we know isn't plausible.
They have so many people stacked at the polls and swing states that they're not worried about actually winning by performance.
If there is any conspiracy here, I would be more likely to believe the one where JD Vance was a plant whose goal is to sabotage Trump's campaign.
Although, I still think it's most likely that they are just incompetent idiots, and aren't sabotaging themselves on purpose at all.
Oh I totally think you're right in applying Hanlon's razor here. The opposite would spell doom.
But sometimes you've got to wonder how incompetent can they be. And at those times "they're not babbling buffoons, it's a clever ruse" seems a plausible explanation. I mean Trump parading his mistress on the campaign trail, what the actual fuck?
There were theories that when RFK jr flipped they wanted him at the VP candidate hard, but they were already stuck with Vance. Conspiracy theory time...they're purposely tanking the already wildly unpopular Vance so it wouldn't seem like such a fickle move.
But it sounds like he can't drop JD. It is not an option and i am sure someone would have told him this, if it was his plan