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Great post, I agree with pretty much all of it. I do think that this timing is deliberate.
More importantly, I agree with you that cracks are showing, and that it is remarkable. Thom Tillis, a MAGA supporter, is speaking up regularly, and has used the term "amateur hour" to multiple issues.
I want to remind people how this sort of stuff happens. Remember when the Epstein Files release needed one more vote, and Johnson wouldn't sweat her in? While that was happening, Trump was arm twisting his MAGA turncoats who weren't having it. Once, the new rep got sworn in, and signed the release commitment right there on the same lectern, EVERY OTHER MAGA CHANGED THEIR VOTE, and voted YES. Even Trump had to endorse it (knowing he'd just dig in on the next battle). None of them wanted to have their No vote thrown in their faces at reelection.
That's how they will finally fall. When enough have finally had enough, and decide to resist, the rest will come over, too, and MAGA will collapse. They may just decide that they'd rather have Vance, close down the circus, and spend 2 years normalizing and rebranding themselves for 2028.
If I were a MAGA who is worried about ending up in front of a wall, or at the end of a rope, or worse, I'd be seriously considering it.
I agree with your analysis that solidarity among MAGAts is largely a facade. They're power-mad sociopaths who will backstab each other if they see any personal advantage in it.
I'm less convinced about the odds of that. Those in the senior legislative leadership and in the cabinet aren't thinking that far ahead, they're running to grab what they can before they face justice-- either the formal kind, if it's not too compromised, or the people's kind, which will be far messier but also swifter, assuming Americans ever stir themselves from their apathy and learned helplessness.
Completely agree, and thank you for the thoughtful reply. I was not aware of Thom Tillis' remarks, I'll check those out. Funny you should bring up Adelita Grijalva, because hers was the last signature required on the discharge petition, as you already know. But since then, there have been several more discharge petitions filed to get legislation on the floor and past Mike Johnson's blockade, something like five, each one taking a handful of Republicans to cross the aisle and support it, who are getting threatening Trump phone calls and doing it anyway.
Another House example is Don Bacon, who's finally found a vestigial spine after announcing his retirement last summer and clearly terrified because he's still in office: this whole "the House could impeach if we invade Greenland" non-statement he made today is absolutely him throwing a sop to MAGA while doing nothing but making a hat tip to the extreme danger of any foreign invasion we undertake as a country, and to his own personal responsibility as a Congressman in getting us embroiled in it.
So the wind has definitely turned a bit in D.C., especially when you consider it would only take five House Republicans to stop the vast majority of this current madness.
And it's the press as well: today Karoline Leavitt completely lost her shit because a guy from The Hill openly said that the ICE agent who shot Renee Good "acted recklessly and killed her unjustifiably." This too is a HUGE crack. I'm sure you already know this, but during the first term when everyone in the press understood that White House access would be granted solely to those toeing the MAGA line, because of the Jim Acosta ban and other similar dramas where any reporter or organization not showing overt deference lost their access, today that reporter from The Hill just put it out there, in essence saying, "Fuck it, take my press pass, this is the reality."
I was truly glad to see it. When a reporter for a national outlet like The Hill decides that the truth is more important than White House access, it's a serious problem for the White House.
The dam is breaking all over. But it's an incredibly dangerous time, and they can still wreak massive havoc on their way down and out in a Leviathan's tail scenario, no matter how inevitable that exit may seem or how much copium I'm toking on any given day, lol.
EDITED to self-correct: Sean Spicer had already resigned by the time Jim Acosta got his White House ban
I'm finally finding people who are seeing what's really happening, and are seeing some potential light at the end of the tunnel. It's a long ways to get there, but I can at least see a potential path out of this, without a devastating Civil War.
It's going to take having an election in November. He's going to try and stop it, but elections are a state-managed process, so what if Blue states decide to have their elections, and send new reps to DC to be sworn in by Johnson? What if there are so many that it flips the House? What if the MAGA government decides to honor Trump's demands over a legal election?
Constitutional Crisis, anyone?
I just got into that with someone here the other day, lol. Not my clearest writing, but dude was just delusional, IMO.
Nobody knows what's going to happen, everything is speculation, but one thing we can count on - MAGA is capable of ANYTHING, no matter how heinous and unspeakable.