this post was submitted on 05 Jan 2026
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Futurology
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We have the technology to do that all right now with renewables. Excluding raw materials for steel etc, we can mine with electric tools/machines (in fairness I don't know if these exist as of now, but it's not a crazy idea to just make an electric version of what exists already), we can farm with electric machines, shipping with electric vehicles, there are electric forges for glass/steel making etc. Once you electrify things, it can all be done with renewables and battery tech.
The biggest problem (in the US) is adoption. We could have better technology and more of it if we gave a single shit about it.
I recommend you do your basic due diligence on industrial processes, material flows and do the math. You're probably not going to like what you find.
What will OP find?
The only condition here is that the developing nation never buys fossil fuels. That the tools that made the tools that made the tools they're buying used fossil fuels at some point doesn't enter into it. Neither should it, really - you're just asking to double-count something that way.
Sure, at roughly Edo period Japan technology, population density and bioproductivity level you don't need fossil fuels. We all will arrive at about that level eventually.
You can absolutely have a modern level of population density and bioproductivity without fossil fuels.
To grow crops at modern levels you have to supply nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and sulfur, pesticides and mechanisation. Sulfur is the only nutrient that comes directly from fossil fuels now, but it's easy enough to find other places. Near me there's been giant stacks of the stuff not even worth selling. Pesticides come from a variety of places, some biological, some which derive from fossil fuels now but could potentially be replaces with building blocks like xylochemicals. Mechanisation could use electrical power, and metals smelted with hydrogen instead of carbon.
Side note, but out of curiosity, why Edo Japan? Isn't that basically the same as Europe circa 1600 or 1700?
There are by-products from oil and gas which are essential for building manufacturing equipment needed for our industries and it's products. While electrifying is the future, i don't think we can wean ourselves completely off these products for some time.
You're right, there currently is, but there doesn't have to be. I agree that weening off will take a while, but that could be a boat load better with incentives
You thinking of plastics?