this post was submitted on 05 Jan 2026
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Futurology
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What will OP find?
The only condition here is that the developing nation never buys fossil fuels. That the tools that made the tools that made the tools they're buying used fossil fuels at some point doesn't enter into it. Neither should it, really - you're just asking to double-count something that way.
Sure, at roughly Edo period Japan technology, population density and bioproductivity level you don't need fossil fuels. We all will arrive at about that level eventually.
You can absolutely have a modern level of population density and bioproductivity without fossil fuels.
To grow crops at modern levels you have to supply nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and sulfur, pesticides and mechanisation. Sulfur is the only nutrient that comes directly from fossil fuels now, but it's easy enough to find other places. Near me there's been giant stacks of the stuff not even worth selling. Pesticides come from a variety of places, some biological, some which derive from fossil fuels now but could potentially be replaces with building blocks like xylochemicals. Mechanisation could use electrical power, and metals smelted with hydrogen instead of carbon.
Side note, but out of curiosity, why Edo Japan? Isn't that basically the same as Europe circa 1600 or 1700?