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Thank you for raising these points. Progress has certainly been made and in specific applications, AI tools has resulted in breakthoughs.
The question is wheither it was transformative, or just incremental improvements, i.e. a faster horse.
I would also argue that there is a significant distinction between predictive AI systems in the application of analysis and the use of LLM. The former has been responsible for the majority of the breakthroughs in the application of AI, yet the latter is getting all the recent attention and investment.
Its part of the reason why I think the current AI bubble is holding back AI development. So much investment is being made for the sake of extracting wealth from individials and investment vehicles, rather than in something that will be beneficial in the long term.
Predictive AI (old AI) overall is certainly going to be a transformative technology as it has already proven over the last 40 years.
I would argue what most people call AIs today, LLMs are not going to be transformative. It does a very good imitation of human language, but it completely lacks the ability to reason beyond the information it is trained on. There has been some progress with building specific modules for completing certain analytical tasks, like mathematics and statistical analysis, but not in the ability to reason.
It might be possible to do that through brute force in a sufficiently large LLM, but I strongly suspect we lack the global computing power by a few orders of magnatude before we get to a mammilian brain and the number of connections it can make.
But even if you could, we also need to improve power generation and efficiency by a few orders of magnatude as well.
I would love to see the AI bubble pop, so that the truely transformative work can progress, rather than the current "how do we extract wealth" focus of AI. So much of what is happening now is the same as the dot com bubble, but at a much larger scale.