this post was submitted on 13 Dec 2025
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Here's where we just start touching on the second order problem. Nobody starts as a good coder. We start making horrible code because we don't know very much, and though years of making mistakes we (hopefully) improve, and become good coders.
So if AI "replaces bad ones" we've effectively ended the pipeline for new coders to enter the workforce. This will be fine for awhile as we have two to three generations of coders that grew up (and became good coders) prior to AI. However, that most recent generation that was pre-AI is that last one. The gate is closed. The ladder pulled up. There won't be any more young "bad ones" that grow up into good ones. Then the "good ones" will start to die off or retire.
Carried to its logical conclusion, assuming nothing else changes, then there aren't any good ones, nor will there every be again.
At least where I work, we're actively teaching the junior devs on best practices and patterns that are tried and true. Like no code copying, small classes with one task, small methods with one task, separating logic from the database/presentation, unit testing etc.
Edit: actively, not actually
then they will try to squeeze the ones that are sitll employed harder, because they "couldnt" find any fresh coders out of college or whatever training they did.
That will backfire on employers. With the shortage of seniors with good skills, the demand will rise for them. An employer that squeezes his seniors will find them quitting because there will be another desperate employer that will treat them better.
I agree. In the long run it will hurt everyone.
There are bad coders and then there are bad coders. I was a teaching assistant through grad school and in the industry I've interviewed the gamut of juniors.
There are tons of new grads who can't code their way out of a paper bag. Then there's a whole spectrum up to and including people who are as good at the mechanics of programming as most seniors.
The former is absolutely going to have a hard time. But if you're beyond that you should have the skills necessary to critically evaluate an agent's output. And any more time that they get to instead become involved in the higher level discussions going on around them is a win in my book.