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Ah, that makes sense. It costs $45 per person to do exactly what they were doing without additional cost up until now.
To be fair, in CA it costs exactly $45 to get a renewal REAL ID drivers license. That is paid by the traveler, not the taxpayer. The difference is that is a one-time fee to get a card that works for either 5 or 10 years, versus a fee every time you fly.
Ok, so there are certainly going to be some administrative and maintenance costs associated with any system, and they are currently paid for by the tax payer. For arguments sake, lets just say that cost should instead be put solely onto people who choose not to take the steps necessary to get a REAL ID, ignoring the many legitimate reasons someone may not wish to or be able to do that.
The follow up question then, is how much does the fee need to be to offset that cost? Well, it will need to be based on the number of those who will not get a REAL ID even after the fee introduction, so it will likely be lower than it is now given the fee as a motivation. Currently 44% of issued id's in the US are without REAL ID status. Let's say that the vast majority of those people are motivated by this fee or other factors to finally get a REAL ID in the next year or two. Let's say a bit over 75% of those currently without it are motivated to get one now (a major over estimation, surely). So only 10% of all US citizens with state issued ids wouldn't have REAL ID.
Given an average of 2.9 million Americans fly every single day, that's 290,000 non REAL ID flyers a day. Times $45, that's $13 million per day, or $4.745 billion per year... to do administration and maintenance on an existing system.
If that is the true cost, that means that 40% of their current congressionally allocated budget of $11.3 billion is spent on maintaining this one system alone. That is simply absurd and anyone with half a lick of sense should know that. So either they are expecting well more than 90% of people to get a REAL ID soon or they are just massively overcharging people and pocketing the difference.