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They did this a lot during the first junta too. Lots of polls as to how disliked he was.
Didn’t change one fucking thing.
People got overconfident. Again. Classic bystander effect.
I know what I'm about to say may get reactionary downvotes, but I think the answer is not overconfidence.
Let's get real. Jan 2021 until Dec 2024 was a rough time all around. Starting with COVID, then the supply chain disruptions that brought, then the bird flu with chickens and the impact on the cost of eggs, and Putin's invasion of Ukraine and the global impact on energy costs, and not to mention the whole rent-seeking, profit-taking megacorpo bullshit we're still living with, people struggled from 2021 through 2024. This struggle was what caused the Shitgibbon to win more than any overconfidence.
Democrats did themselves no favours, either. When Biden ran against the Shitgibbon, people got the impression he was a caretaker POTUS, someone who would stand up for Democracy in 2020 then run as a Lame Duck until 2024, when Team Blue would select the next generation for POTUS. Unfortunately, nobody stood up. Harris was invisible, and not the attack dog I expected her to be. None of the other Democrats stepped up, either. It was business as usual, not the 'Democracy in danger' moment they were portraying it as.
And their handling of Trump? Absolute dogshit. Trump skated on his 6 Jan 2021 crimes, and Death may well take him before Justice does. And obviously, the Dems wouldn't let him skate if what he did was so bad, right? That's what many voters, especially low information voters, think about the whole situation.
So, Fall 2024 rolls in, and you're the typical American voter: a knucklehead who can't see anything that's not directly in front of you, pulled a thousand different directions, and trying to decide what to mark on your ballot for President. Eggs are ridiculously expensive. So are so many other essential groceries. High fuel costs are still in the back of your mind. Your kids are duller and dumber thanks to missing the '21-'22 and '22-'23 school years, and you remember missing your friends at Church, the weekly hangout, and work/school those years. And man, those Dems said that Trump was a threat to Democracy and needed to be gotten out of office so America didn't die or such shit, then 4 years of doing jack and shit and he's back running for office, and you remember that groceries were affordable and you could fill up your car for cheap when Trump was in office, and now you can't do any of that, and so you say "Hey, how bad can he really be?" and you vote for him. 77.3 other knuckleheads join you for various reasons, including looking forward to the American Reich and putting those upity minorities back in their place, and bam. Trump 2.0. As the old saying goes, consider how stupid the average American is, then remember that half of Americans are dumber than the average American.
At least now, Trump's shortcomings are front and centre for a lot of American voters; enough so that 2/3rds of them are saying "yeah, we fucked up putting the Shitgibbon and his Merry Band of Miscreants back in." Small victories!