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Lowering birthrates is a fascinating problem
It's a global problem that has affected nearly every country. There are so many different explanations going around, and we can always compare the explanations to different countries and their birthrate
For the commodification of housing as an explanation, I can think of examples in favor of it, and that contradict it. It's a more compelling explanation than others though
In favor: Japan was the first country to reach extreme housing commodification levels. For about 30 years from the mid-50s to the mid 80s, Japanese housing and real estate values exploded. Very famously, the land under the imperial palace was worth more than all the real estate in California combined. Japan followed this period about 20 years later by becoming the first country to start experiencing significant birthrate decline
China could be a good example here. Their birthrate has collapsed at the same time their housing did, but the time frame is completely different than Japan. It's tough to use them both as an example when they have such drastically different apparent results
Against it: The countries generally considered to have the worst housing crisis at the moment are New Zealand, Canada, and the US, yet the countries with the lowest birth rates are South Korea and Taiwan. Housing in South Korea and Taiwan is moderately commodified, but certainly nowhere near as badly as other countries
Japan can also be an argument against it here. For the past 20+ years, housing has been extremely cheap in Japan. They thoroughly solved their housing crisis. If housing commodification is a driving cause for lowering birthrates, why has it only had a small rebound?
As an aside, Japan solved their housing crisis by implementing an inheritance tax (which took 20+ years to really have an impact), and completely re-working zoning to be permissive by default after the bubble popped. More countries should do that, because housing is now cheaper in central Tokyo than it is in "cheap" mid-size American towns like Fargo, ND