this post was submitted on 15 Oct 2025
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Before anyone brings these up:
The commercial replacements could each get multiple articles devoted to them. I feel good about Vast and Axiom beating the ISS deorbit deadline.
Vast yes, Axiom maybe. I'd give Voyager/Nanoracks a "maybe" as well.
I still think there's a decent chance that there will be a gap in continuous 30-year streak of crewed U.S. spaceflight. Not that it matters in the long-term, but I suspect it's a streak which China won't cede to any other country if they can help it.
Voyager and Blue are such unknowns to me. I haven't seen hardware, so I'm doubtful.